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시장보고서
China Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2008-2020
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Abstract
China is roaring ahead with wind power build-out on its way toward 135 GW of
installed wind capacity by 2020 -- a $300 billion investment over the period.
These enormous investment levels are intended to clean up China' s energy
picture, and to support the development of a globally competitive wind turbine
supply chain, from turbines to gearboxes and blades. The bottom line: China' s
wind power explosion will have a transformational impact on the global
industry. What are the opportunities to participate in China' s wind
development? How can you navigate the complex regulatory and financial
environment? Which of China' s wind turbine and component manufacturers have
the strongest position and which are planning to export? EER' s new study,
China Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2008- 2020, provides critical
competitive analysis for those seeking to compete in China' s wind market --
helping to navigate and evaluate opportunities - for those trying to
understand the unfolding wind turbine supply industry and its implications for
global competition. Key findings in the study:
- China is on track to lead the global wind market in annual installations
by 2011, supported by strong political will, improving incentives, and vast
natural and industrial resources. But growth will depend on greater supply
competition, improved and enhanced transparency of project economics, and
improvements in the quality of locally manufactured turbines and wind project
design. How these factors evolve will determine the size and nature of
opportunities in the decade ahead.
- China' s wind development value chain is evolving, with major state
generators consolidating their presence while IPPs and foreign entrants seize
opportunities as project owners, operators, and technical consultants. China' s
industry-wide demand for project management and technical skills will
perpetuate opportunities for foreign ownership,
executed in the form of equity-based partnerships.
- Turbine and component manufacturers are stepping up to meet booming
demand, striking a balance between quality, production capacity, cost, and
local content. China' s national wind power base initiative is creating
opportunities for manufacturers to scale up their product offering to capture
mega-scale project contracts as well as potential export sales. As the market
matures, rapid supply chain build-up should introduce reliable sourcing
options for all players, enabling greater standardization in quality and
pricing.
Table of Contents
Section 1. Executive Summary
Section 2. China Wind Power Market
- Environment
- 2.1 China Power Market
- 2.2 Wind Energy Regulatory Policy
- Increased National Target Signals Long-Term
- Growth
- RE Law Opens Door for Multiple Support
- Measures
- NDRC Concessions Spur State Player Pipelines
- Provincial Initiatives Stimulate Development
- Activity
- Despite National Policies, Offtake Agreements
- Vary by Province and Project
- CDM Supports Wind Project Viability
- Turbine Supply Build-up Key to Policy Objectives
- Scale-up Plan Underway for Multi-Megawatt
- Technology
- 2.3 Wind Resource
- 2.4 Project Development Process
- 2.5 Transmission
- Key Projects Set to Tap Vast Wind Resources
Section 3. China Wind Power Market Forecasts
- Forecast Methodology
- Underlying Wind Energy Market Assumptions
- 3.1 Historical Trends in China Wind Plant Development
- 3.2 China Wind Power Capacity Forecasts - Base-Case
- Base-Case: Chinese Market to Scale in Three
- Phases, from Explosive Growth to
- Consolidation and Expansion
- 3.3 China Wind Power Capacity Forecasts - High-
- Growth Scenario
- High-Growth: Steady Surge to Nearly 260 GW
- Installed
- 3.4 China Wind Power Capacity Forecasts - Low-
- Growth Scenario
- Low-Growth: Gradual Small-Scale Power
- Technology Build-out
- 3.5 Forecast Scenario Comparison
Section 4. China Wind Power Demand
- 4.1 Wind Power Project Development Market Structure
- Evolving Development Process Requires
- Skillful Technical Partnering, Local Negotiation
- Project Ownership Consolidating in State
- Generator Portfolios, IPP Model Evolving
- State Generators Extend Grip on National
- Wind Ownership
- Pipelines Reflect Intensifying Competition
- Among State Generators
- 4.2 State Generators Embracing Wind Power
- 4.2.1 State Generator Portfolio Strategies in the
- China Power Market
- Generation Portfolios Remain Centered on
- Thermal, Conventional Power
- 4.2.2 State Generator Wind Procurement and
- Ownership
- Four of China' s ' Big Five' Leading National
- Wind Build-out
- State Generator Project Pipelines Signal
- Centralized, Large-Scale Development
- 4.3 Chinese Wind Developers
- 4.3.1 Wind Power Project Pipelines and
- Development Activity
- Chinese Wind Developer Pipelines Signal
- Anticipated Medium-Scale Growth
- 4.4 Foreign Wind Developers and IPPs Search for Role, Build Pipelines
- 4.5 Offshore Wind Development Activity
- 4.6 CDM Bolsters Project Economic Model
- 4.7 State Generator Profiles
- 4.7.1 China Longyuan Electric Power Group
- 4.7.2 China Datang Corporation
- 4.7.3 China Huaneng Group
- 4.7.4 China Huadian Corporation
- 4.7.5 China Power Investment Corporation
- 4.7.6 Guohua Energy Investment
- 4.7.7 China Energy Conservation Investment
- 4.7.8 China Guangdong Nuclear Wind Power
- 4.7.9 China Water Investment Group Corporation
- 4.7.10 China Guodian Corporation
- 4.7.11 State Grid Corporation of China
- 4.7.12 China National Offshore Oil Corporation
- 4.8 Leading Chinese Wind Developer Profiles
- 4.8.1 Ningxia Electric Power Group
- 4.8.2 Beijing International New Energy
- 4.8.3 Shandong Luneng Development Group
- 4.8.4 Heilongjiang Huafu Electric Power Investment
- 4.8.5 Liaoning Energy Investment (Group)
- 4.8.6 Hong Kong Construction (Holdings) Limited
- 4.8.7 China Light & Power Group
- 4.8.8 Hebei Construction Investment
- 4.8.9 China WindPower Group Limited
- 4.9 Foreign Entrants
- 4.9.1 Roaring 40s
- 4.9.2 AES Corporation
- 4.9.3 Korea Electric Power Corporation
- 4.9.4 Other Foreign Entrants
- Acciona
- Airtricity (Scottish & Southern Energy)
- Ao Lu Jia New Energy Development
- BP Alternative Energy
- Fersa
- Gamesa Energy
- Iberdrola
- IW Power
- WelWind Energy International
Section 5. Competitive Analysis of Chinese Wind Turbine Markets
- 5.1 Wind Turbine Infrastructure Market Trends, 000- 2020
- 5.1.1 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Turbine and roject Size
- Average Turbine Size Moving above 1 MW
- Range
- Chinese Supply Approaching
- Rapid Ramp-up to Megawatt and
- Multi-Megawatt
- Project Size Shifting to 50 MW and Larger with
- Concessions, State Power Generator Build-out
- 5.1.2 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Turbine Pricing
- Scope of Supply Wide-ranging with Rapid
- Growth, New Entrant Proliferation
- China Turbine Prices Reflect Learning Curve,
- Shift to Local Sourcing
- Total Turbine Market Headed toward US$13 Billion
- 5.2 Wind Turbine Manufacturer Market Share
- Analysis
- Chinese Players, Gamesa Dominate Sub-1
- MW Segment
- Few Players Vying for 1 MW to 1.49 MW Niche
- Chinese and Foreigners Intensify Competition
- in 1.5 MW to 1.99 MW Segment
- Vestas Steps up to 2 MW Technology, with
- Aspiring New Entrants in Tow
- Suppliers Aim for Regional Strongholds -
- Goldwind, Gamesa Dominating Pivotal
- Provinces
- 5.3 Wind Turbine Manufacturer Competitive Analysis
- 5.3.1 Wind Turbine Product Development Strategies
- Licensing Strategies Critical for Start-up Manufacturers
- 5.3.2 Turbine Production Strategies
- Players Scrambling for Supply Chain Solutions
- Capacity Surge in Motion Through 2012
- Production Networks Expanding, with Regional
- Manufacturing Bases Taking Shape
- 5.3.3 Wind Turbine Sales Strategies
- ' Big Five' and Wind Power Base Orders
- Fundamental to OEM Positioning
- Maiden Orders Set Pace for New Entrant
- Production Roll-out
- China Exports on the Horizon Following
- Domestic Capacity Surge
- 5.3.4 Evolving Wind Turbine After-Sales Strategies
- 5.4 Chinese Vendor Profiles
- 5.4.1 Goldwind
- 5.4.2 Sinovel
- 5.4.3 Dongfang Turbine
- 5.4.4 Zhejiang Yunda (Windey)
- 5.4.5 Sewind
- 5.4.6 CPC New Unite
- 5.4.7 Hunan Hara XEMC
- 5.4.8 CSIC (Chongqing) Haizhuang
- 5.4.9 Shenyang Huachuang
- 5.4.10 Guangdong Mingyang
- 5.4.11 Hanwei Wind
- 5.4.12 Zhejiang Huayi Wind (HeWind)
- 5.4.13 Baoding Huide
- 5.4.14 CSR Times
- 5.4.15 Liaoning GaoKe
- 5.5 Foreign Vendor Profiles
- 5.5.1 Gamesa Wind (Tianjin)
- 5.5.2 Vestas
- 5.5.3 GE Energy
- 5.5.4 Suzlon Energy (Tianjin)
- 5.6 Chinese-foreign JV Vendor Profiles
- 5.6.1 Nordex Wind Power Equipment
- Manufacturing
- 5.6.2 CASC-Acciona
- 5.6.3 REpower North
Section 6. Competitive Trends in China Wind Turbine Component Supply
- 6.1 Supply Chain Positioning
- 6.2 Component Suppliers Ramp Up for Booming Demand
- Emerging Chinese Players Racing to Production
- Foreign Players Aim to Secure Footholds
- 6.3 Competitive Trends in Component Supply
- 6.3.1 Blade Supply Trends
- Scaling Production Capacity Key to Blade
- Supply Competition
- 6.3.2 Gearbox Supply Trends
- Gearbox Players Move to Multi-Megawatt,
- Facing Foreign Leaders
- Gearbox Supplier Positioning in Transition as
- 2 MW Market Grows
- 6.3.3 Generator Supply Trends
- 6.3.4 Bearings Supply Trends
- 6.3.5 Other Component Supply Trends
- Tower Supply Trends
- Control Systems Supply Trends
- 6.4 Blade Supplier Profiles
- 6.4.1 HT Blade
- 6.4.2 LM Glasfiber China
- 6.4.3 Zhongfu Lianzhong
- 6.4.4 SINOMA
- 6.4.5 Wuxi Turbine Blade
- 6.4.6 Shanghai FRP
- 6.4.7 Tianjin Dongqi
- 6.4.8 Other Blade Supplier Profiles
- 6.5 Gearbox Supplier Profiles
- 6.5.1 China High Speed Transmission (Nanjing
- High Speed & Accurate Gearbox)
- 6.5.2 Chongqing Gearbox
- 6.5.3 Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group
- 6.5.4 Hansen Transmissions
- 6.5.5 Winergy
- 6.5.6 Other Gearbox Supplier Profiles
- 6.6 Generator Supplier Profiles
- 6.6.1 Yongji Electric Motor Factory (CNR)
- 6.6.2 ABB Electrical Machines
- 6.6.3 Lanzhou Electric Corporation
- 6.6.4 Other Generator Supplier Profiles
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