Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020

리서치사	Emerging Energy Research
발행일	2008년 11월	상품코드	84291
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가격	US $ 3,750 ￦ 4,468,100 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) US $ 5,500 ￦ 6,553,200 PDF by E-mail (Corporate License)

한글목차
영문목차
관련자료

영문목차

Abstract

While the shockwaves from the global financial crisis are drawing industry focus, new opportunities in Europe' s wind energy markets, are surfacing as players across the value chain reappraise their short- and long-term strategies. IPPs and developers with weaker balance sheets are struggling to realise their pipelines; utilities and large IPPs with strong balance sheets (such as EDP, Iberdrola, and Endesa) are taking advantage of tight money to advance their portfolio strategies through acquisition.

A new study by Emerging Energy Research, Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020, analyzes trends in market growth, competitive shifts across the value chain, and emerging investment opportunities in Europe' s wind energy markets in light of the recent financial situation. The study includes detailed forecasts of Europe' s wind market through 2020 which reflect the likelihood that Europe will meet its renewables target, despite a market slowdown over the next few years.

Now available, Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2008-2020 is an important resource for understanding - and planning for - the fast-approaching changes in Europe' s Wind market. EER' s new study points to several significant trends in Europe wind markets, including:

Utilities will tighten their grip on Europe wind markets: Europe utilities are increasing their wind power ownership with the five largest utilities controlling more than 18% of total installed wind capacity.
Industry consolidation will be accelerated by financial worries, funding shortages: Small, independent power producers will struggle in the face of increasing competition for sites, grid access, turbines, and capital; M&A will prove to be a key growth strategy for bigger players with strong balance sheets.
The IPP model is now in flux as financial investors look to less risky markets: IPPs such as Babcock & Brown have begun to sell off their Europe wind assets and credit shortages may force players to partner with foreigners seeking to enter stable markets.
Utilities fan out in search of wind additions to their portfolios: Less opportunity in consolidating markets is driving major players into scaling markets (such as Poland, France, Italy) as well as growth markets (including Eastern Europe, Norway, and Turkey)

Study Highlights:

Strategy Profiles
- European utilities
- European wind IPPs and
Developers
- Offshore wind IPPs
- European market share analysis and value chain positioning
Wind Power Development Opportunities
- Opportunities in greenfield, scaling, and consolidating markets
Market Forecasts through 2020
- Wind power capacity market forecasts by country (multiple scenarios)
- Trends and forecasts in wind farm size
- Offshore market potential
Strategy Profiles of European Utilities
- Strategy focus based on market maturity
- Pipeline analysis
- Project portfolio evaluation
Competitive Analysis of IPPs and Developers
- Strategy focus based on market maturity
- Pipeline analysis
- Project portfolio evaluation
Wind Power Market Environment Rankings
- 30 wind markets across Europe are ranked by the following:
  - Wind resources
  - Regulatory mechanisms
  - Site approval
  - Grid connection
  - Competition

Section 1. Executive Summary

1.1 Europe Wind Sector Growth Driven by Scaling Markets and Offshore
1.2 Forecasts Point to 210 GW Market by 2020
- Europe to Exhibit Paced Offshore Expansion Through 2020
  - Financial Crisis Potentially Slows 2009 - 2010
    - Growth Before Market Rebounds
1.3 Consolidation Accelerated by Financial Turmoil
- Large Players Pipelines Indicate Greater Consolidation
1.4 Wind Players Forced to Adapt Strategies to Tap Out Remaining Potential
- Wind Enters the Mainstream for All Europe Utilities
- IPP Model in Transition While Pure Develop-and Sell Opportunities are Dwindling
1.5 Outlook: Consolidated Europe Solidifies Wind in the Power Mix

Section 2. European Wind Power Market Environment

2.1 Policy Trends
- Roadmap for Achieving RES Targets
- EU Seeking to Maintain Leadership on Global Climate Issues
2.2 Market Environment Rankings
- 2.2.1 Wind Resource
- 2.2.2 Regulatory Mechanisms
- 2.2.3 Site Permitting
- 2.2.4 Grid Connection
- 2.2.5 Competition
2.3 Ranking Results
- Shifts in Ranking Indicate Changing Dynamics in European Wind Markets
- Tier 1: Moving Quickly to Meet Long-term Wind Targets
  - France Emerges as a Europe Wind Leader, Germany and the UK Move to Unlock Offshore Potential
  - Italy, Sweden Tackle Development Challenges for Steady Project Flow
- Tier 2: Stable Regulatory Frameworks Support Sustained Wind Build-out
  - Poland, Norway, Greece Add Average of 300 plus MW per Year
- Tier 3: Advancing Amid Complex Development Environments
  - Turkey, Eastern Opportunities Begin to Unfold
- Tier 4: Opening up to Wind, Overcoming One Obstacle at a Time
  - Development Barriers Curtail Industry Growth

Section 3. European Wind Power Market Forecasts

3.1 Wind Power Capacity Market Forecasts
- Slowing Onshore Growth Driving Market Toward Offshore
- Europe Wind Power Capacity Growth, 2008 - 2020
- 3.1.1 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country: Consolidating Markets
  - Germany will Remain a Large, Growing Wind Market
  - Spain Experiences Sustained Build-Out Onshore Market Stagnation Pushes Denmark Offshore
  - The Netherlands Taps Remaining Onshore Potential, Advances Offshore
  - Belgium Begins to Focus on Offshore for Large-Scale Growth
  - Austria Searches for New Wind Growth
- 3.1.2 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country: Scaling Markets
  - Portugal will Grow Steadily Toward 10 GW
  - Italy Advances Toward its 2020 Wind Goal
  - The UK Prepares to Enter a New Growth Phase
  - France Progresses to Become Wind Power Giant
  - Sweden Continues to Ramp Up
  - Solving Transmission Issues, Ireland Aims to Catch Up
  - Polish Wind Market Heating Up
  - Greece Ready for Winds of Change
- 3.1.3 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country: Growth Markets
  - Turkey' s Pipeline Moves Forward
  - Norway Waiting for Long-Term Support
  - Finland Constrained by Lack of Incentives
  - Hungarian Wind Growth Depends on Removal of Grid Limitations
  - Permitting Constraints in Way of Czech Wind Growth
  - Bulgaria and Romania Prepare to Harness Wind Potential
  - Switzerland Wind Gains Steam with New Support Scheme
  - Croatia Drives Growth in the Balkans
  - Baltic' s Growth Compromised by Development Challenges
  - Russia Waiting for Regulatory Framework; New Support System in the Ukraine
3.2 Europe Wind Power Capacity Forecast Scenarios
- 3.2.1 Base-Case Scenario
- 3.2.2 High-Growth Scenario
- 3.2.3 Low-Growth Scenario
3.3 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Plant Size
3.4 Europe Offshore Wind Power, 2007 - 2020
3.5 Wind Power Penetration Regional Forecasts, 2008 - 2015

Section 4. European Wind Power Development Opportunities

4.1 Europe Wind Power Market Maturity
- Development of Europe' s Growth Markets is Reliant on Sporadic Projects
- Scaling Markets will Drive the Bulk of Europe' s Long-Term Growth
- Consolidating Markets Welcome Wind as a Key Player in the Generation Mix
- Few Shifts to 2008 Maturity Curve as Europe Builds on Existing Development Trends
4.2 Greenfield Development Opportunities
- 4.2.1 Norway has Long-Term, Large-Scale Opportunities, with Offtake Challenges
- 4.2.2 Turkey Wind Takes Off, Driven by Industrial Conglomerates
- 4.2.3 In Finland, Offshore and Utility Participation to Grow Wind
- 4.2.4 Croatia Taps Coastal Winds for Initial Projects
- 4.2.5 In Hungary, German Influx Driving Growth
- 4.2.6 Estonia Moves to Exploit Coastal Potential
- 4.2.7 Czech Republic Market Beginning to Scale, Despite Permitting Constraints
- 4.2.8 Bulgaria Offers Untapped Opportunities
- 4.2.9 In Romania, Large IPPs and Utilities are Building Pipelines
- 4.2.10 Other Greenfield Opportunities
  - Lithuania
  - Latvia
  - Slovenia and Slovakia
  - Russia and Ukraine
4.3 Scaling Market Opportunities
- 4.3.1 UK Advances Offshore, Plagued by Onshore Grid Bottleneck
- 4.3.2 France Rapidly Consolidating after M&A Wave
- 4.3.3 In Italy, Intense IPP Competition will Surpass Utility Ownership
- 4.3.4 Portugal Consolidates as Grid Capacity is Tapped Out
- 4.3.5 Sweden Provides Strong Incentives, Though Permitting Slows Growth
- 4.3.6 Greece Increasingly Dominated by Southern European Utilities
- 4.3.7 Poland will Improve Infrastructure to Lead Growth in East Europe
4.4 Consolidating Market Opportunities
4.5 Europe Offshore Wind Sector Sees Initial Lift-off, but Cost Challenges Persist
- 4.5.1 UK Offshore Leads Europe with Improving Consistency
- 4.5.2 Germany Offshore Finally Nears Large Scale Project Construction
- 4.5.3 Denmark Taps Offshore for Remaining Market Growth
- 4.5.4 Sweden Installs First Large-Scale Offshore Project, Pipeline Mounts
- 4.5.5 Other Offshore Markets Seek to Advance from Pilot-Scale to Steady Project Flow

Section 5. European Wind Power Development Strategies

5.1 Wind Power Development Activity and Project Pipeline
- 5.1.1 Europe Wind Plant Ownership Trends
  - Led by Iberdrola and E.ON, Utilities Steadily Tighten Grip on Market
  - IPP Model in Transition with Financial Investors Leaving the Market
  - Germany' s Wind Ownership Structure Shifts as Utilities Try to Develop Their Home Portfolios
- 5.1.2 Europe Wind Plant Ownership Rankings
  - Southern European Portfolios Lead Ranking
  - Northern Europeans Waiting for Offshore Take-Off
  - IPPs Gaining Scale While Expanding Geographically
- 5.1.3 Europe Wind Development Experience Rankings
  - Vertical Integration Dwindling Develop-and Sell Opportunities
- 5.1.4 Europe Wind Pipeline Analysis
5.2 Utility Generation Strategies
- Pan-European Players Expanding Dominance
- Regional Players Shifting Positioning
- Domestic Players Remain Focused Nationally
- 5.2.1 Utility Strategy Comparison
  - Pan-European Wind Players Accelerating Development Strategies
  - Regional Utilities Consolidating Wind Expansion Strategies
  - Domestic Players Continue Expanding Capacity to Comply with RES Obligations
- 5.2.2 Utility Wind Portfolios and Pipelines by Market Type
  - Southern European Players Leading with Strong Moves into Consolidating Markets
- Major Central/Nordic Players Late to Enter, Leveraging Scale with Remaining Opportunities
- Mix of Smaller Regional/Local Players Vie for Long-Term Sustainable Growth in Wind
- Pan-European Utility Pipelines Show Global Ambitions
- Regional Wind Players' Pipelines Seek Growth in Scaling Markets and Offshore
- All Utilities - Regional and Pan-European Seek Repowering and Offshore Growth
5.3 Evolving Independent Wind Player Models
- 5.3.1 Wind IPP and Developer Strategy Comparison
- 5.3.2 IPP Wind Portfolios and Pipelines
- Top Three Largest IPPs Embracing Different Wind Strategies
- Mixed Group of Smaller IPPs Executing Concentrated Geographic Strategies
- Market Leaders Spain, Germany offer Varied Growth Potential, Low Risk, Project Availability
- Risk-Averse IPPs Focus on Scaling Markets Acciona Stands Out as Europe' s Only Pan-European IPP
5.4 Developer Strategy Comparison
- 5.4.1 Leading Developer Portfolios and Pipelines
- 5.4.2 Developers Adjust Strategies to Changing Environment
  - Developers Rush to Secure Land in Growth Markets
  - As Markets Scale, Local Developers Disappear, Absorbed by Hungry Larger Players
  - Concentration in Consolidating Markets Raises Value of Developer Assets
5.5 Offshore Wind Development Activity
- Offshore Offers Utilities a Promising Option to Quickly Ramp-up Their Portfolios
- Few IPPs Set for Offshore Participation

Section 6. Wind Power Utility, IPP and Developer Strategy Profiles

6.1 Utility Profiles
- 6.1.1 Centrica
- 6.1.2 DONG Energy Renewables
- 6.1.3 EDF Energies Nouvelles
- 6.1.4 Edison
- 6.1.5 EDP Renovaveis
- 6.1.6 ESB - The Electricity Supply Board
- 6.1.7 Endesa
- 6.1.8 Enel
- 6.1.9 E.ON
- 6.1.10 Essent
- 6.1.11 GdF-Suez
- 6.1.12 Iberdrola Renovables
- 6.1.13 Nuon
- 6.1.14 Public Power Corporation (AEH)
- 6.1.15 RWE
- 6.1.16 Scottish and Southern Energy - Airtricity
- 6.1.17 Statkraft
- 6.1.18 Union Fenosa
- 6.1.19 Vattenfall
6.2 Other Utilities
- 6.2.1 CEZ
- 6.2.2 ENEA
- 6.2.3 Fortum
- 6.2.4 Verbund
6.3 Independent Power Producers
- 6.3.1 Acciona Energia
- 6.3.2 AES
- 6.3.3 Babcock & Brown
- 6.3.4 Enerfin Sociedad de Energia, Grupo Elecnor
- 6.3.5 ERG Group
- 6.3.6 Eurus
- 6.3.7 Falck Renewables
- 6.3.8 Fersa
- 6.3.9 Gas Natural
- 6.3.10 Grupo ACS
- 6.3.11 International Power
- 6.3.12 Martifer
- 6.3.13 Molinos del Ebro
- 6.3.14 Renewable Energy Systems, Ltd.
- 6.3.15 Theolia
6.4 Other Independent Power Producers
- 6.4.1 Alerion
- 6.4.2 Boralex
- 6.4.3 GEK Terna
- 6.4.4 Poweo
- 6.4.5 Sorgenia
6.5 Developers
- 6.5.1 EnergieKontor
- 6.5.2 Gamesa Energia
- 6.5.3 Germania Windpark
- 6.5.4 Juwi
- 6.5.5 Ostwind
- 6.5.6 Prokon Nord/Enertrag
- 6.5.7 Volkswind
- 6.5.8 Wind Prospect
- 6.5.9 WindStrom
- 6.5.10 WKN
- 6.5.11 wpd
6.6 Other Developers
- 6.6.1 NEK

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

1-1: Europe Market Opportunity and Competitive Landscape Overview
1-2: Europe Market Share, MW Added by Country, 2007 - 2020
1-3: Europe Utility, IPP Market Ownership Split Overview, YE 2007
1-4: Large Players' Wind Power Pipelines
1-5: Utility Strategy Groupings Matrix
1-6: Strategy Positioning of Top Developers

Section 2. European Wind Power Market Environment

2-1: EU 2020 RES Targets
2-2: Wind Energy and 2010 RES-E Targets
2-3: Wind Power Market Evaluation Components
2-4: European Market Attractiveness: Ranking Overview

Section 3. European Wind Power Market Forecasts

3-1: Operational Wind Power Capacity, 2007 - 2020
3-2: Europe Wind Power Markets Summary, Annual Installations (MW)
3-3: Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Capacity in Service, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-4: Wind Power Market Maturity in Europe
3-5: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions Market Share by Country, 2007 - 2020
3-6: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions by Country, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-7: Consolidating Markets' Net Additions by Country, 2007 - 2020
3-8: Consolidating Markets' Wind Power Total Capacity Installed by Country, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-9: Scaling Markets' Net Additions by Country, 2007 - 2020
3-10: Scaling Markets' Wind Power Capacity Total by Country, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-11: Growth Markets' Net Additions by Country, 2007 - 2020
3-12: Growth Markets Wind Power Capacity Total by Country, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-13: Europe MW Added Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007 - 2020
3-14: Europe Total Base-Case Scenario Forecasts, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-15: Europe Total High-Growth Scenario Forecasts, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-16: Europe Total Low-Growth Scenario Forecasts, 2007 - 2020 (MW)
3-17: New Europe Wind Projects by Size, 2007
3-18: Europe Wind Projects by Size, 2001 - 2006
3-19: Europe Wind Power Projects by Size, 2007 - 2020
3-20: Europe Offshore versus Onshore Wind Capacity, 2007 - 2020
3-21: Europe Offshore Wind Capacity Added, 2007 - 2020
3-22: Europe Wind Power as Share of Total Generation Installed Base, 2006 - 2015
3-23: Europe Wind Power Proportion of Total Generation Installed Base, 2006 - 2015

Section 4. European Wind Power Development Opportunities

4-1: Market Maturity Evaluation Components
4-2: Wind Power Onshore Market Maturity, 2008
4-3: Development Activity Market Penetration
4-4: Norway Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-6: Turkey Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-8: Finland Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-10: Croatia Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-12: Hungary Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-14: Estonia Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-16: Czech Republic Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-18: Bulgaria Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-20: Romania Operational and Pipeline Projects
4-22: UK Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-24: France Select Project Pipeline
4-25: Italy Select Project Pipeline
4-26: Portugal Select Project Pipeline
4-27: Sweden Operational Project and Pipeline List
4-29: Greece Select Project Pipeline
4-30: Poland Select Project Pipeline
4-31: Consolidating Activity in Europe' s Mature Markets
4-32: Key Recent Wind Deals in Spain and Germany
4-33: Market Forecasts Offshore, 2008 - 2020
4-34: UK Offshore Operational Project List
4-35: UK Offshore Project Pipeline
4-36: Germany Offshore Operational Project List
4-37: Germany Offshore Select Project Pipeline
4-38: Denmark Offshore Operational Project List
4-39: Denmark Offshore Project Pipeline
4-40: Sweden Offshore Operational Project List
4-41: Sweden Offshore Project Pipeline
4-42: Other Offshore Market Operational Project List
4-43: Other Offshore Market Project Pipeline

Section 5. European Wind Power Development Strategies

5-1: Wind Opportunities for Wind Players by Market Maturity Stage
5-2: European Ownership Shifts to Utilities, IPPs
5-3: European Utility, IPP Market Ownership Split Overview, 2007
5-4: Wind Plant Ownership Rankings, YE 2007
5-5: Developer Experience Comparison
5-6: Total Pipeline, Mid-2008
5-7: Utility Strategy Groupings Matrix
5-8: Utilities' RES Spin-offs
5-9: Utilities' Presence by Market Type at YE 2007
5-10: Comparison of Megawatts Installed, Split by Market Type, YE 2007
5-11: Comparison Pipeline by Market Type
5-12: Wind IPP and Developer Value Chain Positioning
5-13: Top Developer Strategy Positioning
5-14: IPP Presence by Market Type, YE 2007
5-15: Comparison Megawatts Installed Split by Market Type, YE 2007
5-16: Comparison Pipeline by Market Type, Mid-2008
5-17: Developers' Experience by Market Type, YE 2007
5-18: Comparison of Development Experience and Pipeline Split by Market Type, YE 2007
5-19: Local Developer Pipelines in Key Growth Markets
5-20: Key Scaling Market Developer Pipelines
5-21: Consolidating Market Activity, 2007 - 2008
5-22: Offshore Pipelines by Type of Player, Mid-2008
5-23: Utility/IPP Offshore Positions