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시장보고서
Cancer Drug Discoveries: Renal Cancer
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Abstract
The renal cell carcinoma (RCC) market was estimated to be worth around US$1
billion in 2006, with a growth rate of 36% YoY. It has constituted a
relatively small segment of the oncology market but has more recently
attracted considerable research and development investment from big
pharmaceutical, biotechnology and specialty pharma companies.
The market is currently driven by the use of the following immunomodulating
agents: Schering-Plough' s Intron A (interferon [IFN] alpha-2b), Roche' s
Roferon-A (IFN alpha-2a) and Novartis' Proleukin (aldesleukin); with new
market entrants Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals' Nexavar (sorafenib) and Pfizer' s
Sutent (sunitinib) making significant inroads into the market in 2006, their
first year of sales.
The launch of more effective targeted agents and greater use of combination
therapies instead of monotherapies, with the establishment of existing and new
agents as adjuvant therapy in early-stage disease will contribute to the RCC
market' s most eventful decade.
There are significant opportunities for effective new products to expand
rapidly, as a large percentage of patients are currently not treated with drug
therapies and are not cured by surgery alone. These patients are candidates
for adjuvant therapy.
We forecast that sales of RCC treatments will increase to US$3 billion by 2009
and over US$6 billion by 2012 due to the launch of up to nine new therapies.
The RCC market is in its most exciting phase of evolution!
Key questions answered include:
- What are the reasons behind the expected increase in the patient
population with RCC?
- What impact will the new oral agents have on a market currently dominated
by injectables?
- Why is only 25% of the global RCC market in Europe?
- What are the prospects for GSK' s pazopanib and what revenue contribution
might it make in 2012?
- What challenges must Novartis overcome with Proleukin and its new product
everolimus if it is to maintain market presence?
- What factors are limiting Wilex' Rencarex commercialisation?
Table of Contents
- RENAL CELL CARCINOMA
- THE FACTS
- What is RCC and why are we interested in it?
- Figure 6.1: Structure of the Kidney
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the
future
- Figure 6.2: World age-standardised incidence rates for kidney cancer, selected countries, 2002 estimates
- PATIENT MODEL
- The number of patients with RCC will have a CAGR 2005A-2012E of
2.67%.
- Table 6.1: Summary of Patient Population Forecasts
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
- THE MARKET
- GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 6.3: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006 (US$47 billion)
- Figure 6.4: Global Cancer Sales 2004A-2012E
- THE RCC MARKET
- GLOBAL SALES SPLIT
- Figure 6.5: Global sales split (2006)
- US market
- Figure 6.6: RCC US Drugs Sales Split (2006A)
- European market
- Figure 6.7: RCC European Drugs Sales Split (2006A)
- Japanese market
- The major players
- Players and Products in 2006
- Players and products in 2012
- Figure 6.9: Global Market share of RCC players by sales (Dec 2012E)
- CURRENT TREATMENTS
- Leading Brands
- Table 6.2: Comparison of Leading RCC Agents
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 6.3: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Immunomodulating agents
- Immunomodulating agents
- Interferon (IFN) alpha
- Intron A/PEG-Intron (Schering-Plough)
- Roferon-A/Pegasys (Roche)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic
class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Table 6.4: Sales forecasts for interferon products
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Proleukin (Novartis/Chiron)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Nexavar (Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Sutent (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005A- 2012E
- Table 6.5: Sales Forecasts of Current Leading RCC Drugs (US$ millions)
- Model assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Table 6.6: Drugs in Development to Treat RCC
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 6.7: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat RCC
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Everolimus (Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Pazopanib (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Rencarex (Wilex)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Torisel (Wyeth)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- TroVax (Oxford BioMedica/sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tykerb (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III RCC DRUGS 2006E- 2012E
- Table 6.8: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental RCC Drugs (US$ million)
- Model assumptions
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 6.9: New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat RCC
- Immunomodulators
- Angiogenic inhibitors
- Novel agents
- Immunomodulators
- rIL-21 (ZymoGenetics/Novo Nordisk)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Revlimid (Celgene)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Talactoferrin (Agennix)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Angiogenesis inhibitors
- ABT-510 (Abbott)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Novel agents
- AS1411 (Antisoma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Interesting Phase II Drugs
- ABT-751 (Abbott)
- Recentin (AstraZeneca)
- GTI-2040 (Lorus Therapeutics)
- Ipilimumab (Medarex/Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Ixabepilone (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Vatalinib (Novartis/Bayer Schering Pharma)
- Volociximab (PDL BioPharma/Biogen Idec)
- XL880 (Exelixis)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II RCC DRUGS 2006A - 2012E
- Table 6.10: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental RCC Drugs (US$ million)
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Table 6.11: Rating Score for Clinical Rating
- Figure 6.11: CR Analysis of RCC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug Class
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 6.12: CR Analysis of RCC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table 6.12: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the RCC Market by 2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Losers
- DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- Table 6.13: Drugs Discontinued (or ' on hold' ) from Clinical Development
in RCC
- APPENDIX 1
- Figure 6.13: RCC Tumour Staging Systems
- Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) Staging of Renal Cell Carcinoma
- APPENDIX 2
- Phase Transition Probability
- Table 6.14: Probability of Launch
- Appendix 3
- Patient Model
- Table 6.15: Summary of US RCC Patient Population Forecasts
- Table 6.16: Summary of Europe (Top 5) RCC Patient Population Forecasts
- Table 6.17: Summary of Japan RCC Patient Population Forecasts
- Appendix 4
- Table 18: Global RCC Drugs Sales 2005A-2012E
- APPENDIX 5
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Table 6.19: Key RCC Drugs on the Market by 2012
- GLOSSARY
- REFERENCES
- ACRONYMS
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