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시장보고서
Telecom Business Transformation Series (All 4 Reports)
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Abstract
This market report will be provided in the following serieses:
- I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business
Transformation
- II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and
Forecasts
- III. The Telecommunications Market Today
- IV. Business Transformation Planning
I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business Transformation
Overview
This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to
telecommunications business transformation. The report will also forecast the
likely results of those processes, taken collectively, in the development of a
Next Generation Network. In general, business transformation planning has many
outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in
telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one
of its outputs, the development of a Next Generation Network, since the nature
of the future network must reflect the new business plan. The history of the
networking business is largely based on network evolution steps that were
determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of geniuses at the same
institution determined end-user (station apparatus) capabilities. It has been
said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph network, the
telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its particular end-user
apparatus: the telegraph, the telephone, and the computer. As we have changed
from each of these paradigms to the next, we have seen massive business
transformations by the major players. Some made the transformation; they
survived and prospered. Some did not and died. This report is about how to
make those transformations and what network will be coming next - the Next
Generation Network! Unlike in the past, the development of these future
networks is based on customers' needs and business vision, as opposed to
technological possibilities and cost efficiencies. Now there are competitive
networks to the business and the residence, and there are hundreds, maybe
thousands, of companies devoted to the development of station apparatus to
meet customers' needs as they see them. Most of this station apparatus is not
even called that; rather, it is called computers, DVRs, Wii, routers,
over-the-top video, etc. Network evolution, now, is driven by the competitive
desire of the multiple network providers to have networks that are capable of
interfacing with this station apparatus. For telcos and all companies involved
in the telecommunications business, this drastically changed environment
requires that they change their businesses if they are to survive and prosper.
These two ingredients (customers' needs and business vision), along with an
understanding of competitors' positions, are the basis of planning for future
networks today. The idea that “Customer Is King” will run
throughout this report. It is also strongly reflected in the interviews.
Report Features
We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the
drivers in today' s market for that planning activity, as well as the resulting
Next Generation Network and our forecast for the NGN.
This includes:
- The description of the planning environment - A framework that
outlines the steps in the planning process.
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S.
telcos.
- The competitive market in the U.S. facing today' s
telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the
changing market such as advanced access architectures, supercompetitors, and
overbuild.
- A detailed approach to Business Transformation Planning - a
“how to.”
- A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation
planning.
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications
business today.
- The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
- Our characterization of the NGN - Access, Speed, and Flexibility.
- Our forecast for the Next Generation Network architecture -
Access, Transport, and Control.
- A description of the major technology groups in the NGN - with
forecasts for their deployment.
- A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
- A major Appendix will describe the process of “Vision
Planning” - a technique for transformation planning.
II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts
Overview
The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution
steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of
geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus)
capabilities. The famous beginning of the telephone industry might have been,
in today' s terms, “Watson, come here. I need your cell phone
number.”
It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph
network, the telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its
particular end-user apparatus - the telegraph, the telephone, and the
computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next, we have
seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some companies
made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died.
This report is about how to make those transformations and specifically about
what network will be coming next - the next-generation network!
Report Features
This report reviews the techniques for NGN planning and some of the drivers in
today' s market for that planning activity.
It includes the following major areas:
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
- Forecasts of CapEx for the next five years.
- A survey of what major players are doing in NGN planning.
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications
business today about NGN.
- The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
- A discussion of what the major carriers are doing in related areas.
- Our characterization of the NGN - access, speed, and flexibility.
- Our forecast for the next-generation network architecture - access,
transport, and control.
- A presentation of architectural options facing a telecommunications
company it the advanced access area, and a model of the related economics.
- A discussion of standards activity related to NGN.
- A description of the major technology groups in the NGN, with forecasts
for their deployment.
- A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
Why have an NGN? - Why change networks?
If we have a perfectly good, working network, why do we change it? Why do we
evolve it?
Here are some reasons:
- We find a way to make it cheaper to operate. (e.g., changing from open
wire to plastic sheathed cables).
- We find a way to make it cheaper to grow. (e.g., we add cross-boxes).
- We find that we need more capacity. (e.g., we convert from cable-derived
circuits to T-1-derived circuits).
- The end-user devices (station apparatus) demands that we provide more or
different functionality. (e.g., HDTV delivery).
- Of course, particularly with items 1, 2, and 3, there is often a mixture
of motives for change. Often the need for more, cheaper capacity will combine
items 2 and 3, for example. Over time, the importance of these reasons has
changed.
As a part of this report, we will find that now the reason for changing
networks is to meet end user-demand for services. The rationale for changing
networks is moving from technology/cost savings to customer-driven!
III. The Telecommunications Market Today
Overview
This is the first of a major series of reports to be published by Information
Gatekeepers on the subject of telco business transformation and the
next-generation network. Many of the world' s telcos are now involved in
redefining the way they do business and the kind of network they need in their
planned new environment. This series of reports will be a “How To”
manual as well as a report on activities by the various major players, with
forecasts for the resulting next-generation network.
Report Features
This report will attempt to answer these questions, in the broader context of
the overall competitive environment of U.S. telephony today. In addition to
the “super-competitors,” we feel that the following are the
major issues in today' s competitive structure in telecommunications:
- Telcos become wireless, rather than wireline companies;
- The Advanced Access Architecture deployments being undertaken by the major
RBOCs and many smaller telcos;
- Overbuilding by major telcos;
- The emergence of the “super-competitors.”
This report will address each of these areas and provide forecasts as to our
expectations for each. Because of the overriding importance of the state of
the U.S. (and world) economy, we will begin with a review of our forecasts for
the nation' s economy as well as its impact on telephony. That portion of the
report will also provide our forecast for capital spending over the next five
years. The report will then continue with a review of the current telecom
market structure; with that background, we will then address each of the
above-listed issues.
IV. Business Transformation Planning
Overview
This report boldly tells exactly how to do transformation planning. It is
written by an author who has been involved in (often as a leader, but also as
a follower) many transformation projects in several different venues. He has
also been deeply involved in all phases of telephony planning for over 40
years. This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to
telecommunications business transformation. The techniques and steps described
herein will guide the firm in the process, but the actual work must be done on
an individual basis. In general, business transformation planning has many
outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in
telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one
of its outputs, the development of a next-generation network, since the nature
of the future network must reflect the new business plan.
Unlike in the past, the development of these future networks is based on
customers' needs and business vision, as opposed to technological
possibilities and cost efficiencies. These two ingredients (customers' needs
and business vision), along with an understanding of competitors' positions,
are the basis of planning for future networks today.
Report Features
We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the
drivers in today' s market for that planning activity.
This development of techniques will include:
- The description of the planning environment - A framework that outlines
the steps in the planning process;
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos;
- The competitive market in the U.S. facing today' s telecommunications
company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as
advanced access architectures, super-competitors, and overbuild;
- A detailed approach to business transformation planning - a “how
to”;
- A major section will describe the process of “Vision Planning”
- a technique for transformation planning;
- A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation
planning;
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications
business today.
Table of Contents
I. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Planning for Business Transformation
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Impact of Competitive Networks
Transformation Planning
Why Do We Change Networks?
Customer is King!
This Report
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
- General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
- Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players
AT&T
BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'
Comcast
NTT (Japan)
Orange/FT (French Telecom)
Telstra (Australian)
Verizon
Qwest
Ciena
NeoPhotonics
Changing Face of the Network
Why Change Networks?
- Cheaper Operation:
- Cheaper to Grow
- Need for More Capacity:
- End-User Demand.
How the Network Is Changing
- Historical Network
- Recent Network
- Future Network
- “Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”
The Next Generation Network
NGN - Characterization
NGN - Architecture
- NGN - Access
- NGN - Transport
- Local
- Soft switches
- MSPP
- Metro DWDM
- R-OADMs
- IXC
- R-OADMs
- OC-768 and SONET Advances
- IP
- “Big Iron”
- NGN - Control
- New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
- Control Forecast - A Compromise
- 1. Direct Control
- 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
- 3. NGN Control
Summary of NGN Forecast
Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures
Comparison of Three Major Approaches
- BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
- AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
- Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)
Summary of Fiber Requirements
An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences
Fiber Required for Each Architecture
Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture
AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
The Technologies of the Next Generation Network
Advanced Access Architectures
- Verizon
- AT&T
- Bell South
- Qwest
NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
- 10-GPON
- WDM-PONs
- Vendors of WDM-PON
- Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status
ROADMs
- Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
- A New ROADM
- Evolution to the Edge
NGN Standards Activities
ITU
IEFT
Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views
Forecast for NGN Technologies
Advanced Access Architectures Forecast
Forecasts for Deployment
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- AAA Forecast Summary
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- Qwest
Forecast Size of Deployments
- Forecast of Homes Passed
- Penetration Rates
- Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
ROADM Forecast
- Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
- Assumptions of Model
- Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
- Systems - Forecast
- US Edge ROADMs
US Market Forecast
Vendors for the NGN
Advanced Access Architecture Vendors
- Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
- ADC
- Adtran
- Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Alloptic Inc
- Amino Technologies plc
- Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
- Broadlight
- Calix
- Cisco
- Conexant
- Corrigent (now Orckit)
- Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
- Ericsson
- Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
- Finisar Corporation
- FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
- Fujitsu
- Genone3 Technologies Inc.
- Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
- Humax USA Inc.
- JDS Uniphase
- Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
- LG Electronics
- LightComm Technology
- Marconi
- Microsoft
- Motorola
- NeoPhotonics
- Nortel
- Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
- OFS
- O-Net Communications Ltd
- Oplink Communications, Inc.
- Optiviva Inc.
- Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
- Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
- Paceon (Mitsubishi)
- Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
- PMC-Sierra
- Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
- Salira Optical Network Systems
- Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
- Siemens
- Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
- Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
- Tellabs
- Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
- Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
- Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
- Wave7 Optics
- Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
- Zhone Technologies
ROADM System Vendors
System Vendor Listing
- Adva Optical Networking
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Ciena
- Cisco
- ECI
- Ericsson
- Fujitsu
- Infinera
- Huawei Technologies
- Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton (now Xtera)
- Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
- Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
- Movaz Networks (ADVA)
- NEC America Inc.
- Nistica
- Nokia Siemens (NSN)
- Nortel
- OpVista Inc.
- Tellabs
- Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
Table of Figures
- Figure 1: Lightwave Network
- Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
- Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
- Figure 4: Historical Network
- Figure 5: Recent Network
- Figure 6: Near Future Network
- Figure 7: NGN - Characterization
- Figure 8: Next Generation Network
- Figure 9: Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
- Figure 10: Control Migration to Network Edge
- Figure 11: BellSouth FTTC
- Figure 12: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
- Figure 13: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
- Figure 14: Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
- Figure 15: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
- Figure 16: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
- Figure 17: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
- Figure 18: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
- Figure 19: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 20: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 21: Identified Technologies of the NGN
- Figure 22: ROADMs to the Network Edge
- Figure 23: Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
- Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
- Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
- Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
- Figure 27: AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
- Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
- Figure 29: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
- Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
- Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
- Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market - US
II. Next-Generation Carrier' s Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Impact of Competitive Networks
Transformation Planning
Why Do We Change Networks?
Customer is King!
This Report
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
- General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
- Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players
AT&T
BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'
Comcast
NTT (Japan)
Orange/FT (French Telecom)
Telstra (Australian)
Verizon
Qwest
Ciena
NeoPhotonics
Changing Face of the Network
Why Change Networks?
- Cheaper Operation:
- Cheaper to Grow
- Need for More Capacity:
- End-User Demand.
How the Network Is Changing
- Historical Network
- Recent Network
- Future Network
- “Watson, Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”
The Next Generation Network
NGN - Characterization
NGN - Architecture
- NGN - Access
- NGN - Transport
- Local
- Soft switches
- MSPP
- Metro DWDM
- R-OADMs
- IXC
- R-OADMs
- OC-768 and SONET Advances
- IP
- “Big Iron”
- NGN - Control
- New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
- Control Forecast - A Compromise
- 1. Direct Control
- 2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
- 3. NGN Control
Summary of NGN Forecast
Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures
Comparison of Three Major Approaches
- BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
- AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
- Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)
Summary of Fiber Requirements
An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences
Fiber Required for Each Architecture
Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture
AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
The Technologies of the Next Generation Network
Advanced Access Architectures
- Verizon
- AT&T
- Bell South
- Qwest
NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
- 10-GPON
- WDM-PONs
- Vendors of WDM-PON
- Other WDM-PON Activities
- Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status
ROADMs
- Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
- A New ROADM
- Evolution to the Edge
NGN Standards Activities
ITU
IEFT
Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views
Forecast for NGN Technologies
Advanced Access Architectures Forecast
Forecasts for Deployment
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- AAA Forecast Summary
- AT&T
- Verizon
- BellSouth
- Qwest
Forecast Size of Deployments
- Forecast of Homes Passed
- Penetration Rates
- Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
ROADM Forecast
- Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
- Assumptions of Model
- Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
- Systems - Forecast
- US Edge ROADMs
US Market Forecast
Vendors for the NGN
Advanced Access Architecture Vendors
- Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
- ADC
- Adtran
- Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Alloptic Inc
- Amino Technologies plc
- Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
- Broadlight
- Calix
- Cisco
- Conexant
- Corrigent (now Orckit)
- Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
- Ericsson
- Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
- Finisar Corporation
- FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
- Fujitsu
- Genone3 Technologies Inc.
- Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
- Humax USA Inc.
- JDS Uniphase
- Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
- LG Electronics
- LightComm Technology
- Marconi
- Microsoft
- Motorola
- NeoPhotonics
- Nortel
- Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
- OFS
- O-Net Communications Ltd.
- Oplink Communications, Inc.
- Optiviva Inc.
- Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
- Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
- Paceon (Mitsubishi)
- Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
- PMC-Sierra
- Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
- Salira Optical Network Systems
- Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
- Siemens
- Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
- Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
- Tellabs
- Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
- Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
- Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
- Wave7 Optics
- Worldwide Packets, Inc. (Acquired by Ciena)
- Zhone Technologies
ROADM System Vendors
System Vendor Listing
- Adva Optical Networking
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Ciena
- Cisco
- ECI
- Ericsson
- Fujitsu
- Infinera
- Huawei Technologies
- Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton (now Xtera)
- Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
- Meriton Networks (now Xtera)
- Movaz Networks (ADVA)
- NEC America Inc.
- Nistica
- Nokia Siemens (NSN)
- Nortel
- OpVista Inc.
- Tellabs
- Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
Table of Figures
- Figure 1: Lightwave Network
- Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
- Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
- Figure 4: Historical Network
- Figure 5: Recent Network
- Figure 6: Near Future Network
- Figure 7: NGN - Characterization
- Figure 8: Next Generation Network
- Figure 9: Transformation from Opaque to Transparent
- Figure 10: Control Migration to Network Edge
- Figure 11: BellSouth FTTC
- Figure 12: AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
- Figure 13: Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
- Figure 14: Fibers Required per Year for Each Architecture
- Figure 15: Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
- Figure 16: Length of Fiber for the Architectures
- Figure 17: Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
- Figure 18: Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
- Figure 19: AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 20: Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
- Figure 21: Identified Technologies of the NGN
- Figure 22: ROADMs to the Network Edge
- Figure 23: Differences between ITU and IEFT NGN Views
- Figure 24: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
- Figure 25: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
- Figure 26: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
- Figure 27: AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
- Figure 28: ROADM System Unit Forecast - US
- Figure 29: US Market - Change in Predominant Type of ROADM over Time
- Figure 30: US Edge ROADMs Systems
- Figure 31: ROADMs Market Forecast - US
- Figure 32: OADM vs. ROADM Market - US
III. The Telecommunications Market Today
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Telco Business Transformation and Next Generation Network Series of Reports
Google and the RBOCs
How do you compete with “Free?”
This Report
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
- General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
- Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
The Face of Network Competition - Market Structure Today
RBOCs' Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
- Post-merger Competition
- RBOC Purchase of IXCs
- RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Advanced Access Architecture Plans
AAA Deployment Forecast Summary
Forecast Size of Deployments
- Forecast of Homes Passed
- Penetration Rates
RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
- RBOC Loss of Main Lines
- It' s a Wireless Access Industry!
The Wireless Access Landscape
Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
The Super Competitors
Google Attacks - Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice
Overbuild
- Overbuild - How?
- Overbuild - Significance
A New Type of Competition
Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
Summary of Forecasts
General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Advanced Access Architectures
Wireline to Wireless
Google Voice/Google Forecast
Overbuilding
Table of Figures
- Figure 1: Lightwave Network
- Figure 2: Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
- Figure 3: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
- Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
- Figure 5: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
- Figure 6: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
- Figure 7: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
- Figure 8: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
- Figure 9: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
- Figure 10: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
- Figure 11: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
- Figure 12: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
- Figure 13: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
- Figure 14: Wireless Competition
- Figure 15: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
- Figure 16: The Super Competitors
- Figure 17: Google as a Serious Threat
- Figure 18: Forecast for Google Voice
IV. Business Transformation Planning
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
THE LIGHTWAVE SERIES OF REPORTS
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
INTRODUCTION
The Impact of Competitive Networks
Transformation Planning
Customer is King!
This Report
The Face of Network Competition
This Chapter
The Face of Network Competition - Market Structure Today
- RBOCs' Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
Post-merger Competition
RBOC Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Advanced Access Architecture Plans
RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
- RBOC Loss of Main Lines
- It' s a Wireless Access Industry!
- The Wireless Access Landscape
- Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
The Super Competitors
- Google Attacks - Google Voice
- Forecast for Google Voice
Overbuild
- Overbuild - How?
- Overbuild - Significance
- A New Type of Competition
- Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
Summary of Forecasts - Face of the Market
- General Economic Forecasts
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
- Advanced Access Architectures
- Wireline to Wireless
- Google Voice/Google Forecast
- Overbuilding
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATiON PLANNING - HOW TO
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT
Market Intelligence
Business Vision
What Is Vision Planning?
- Development of a Vision
- Vision Planning - Examples
- IBM Example
- Lincoln Example from the Civil War
- The Vision Planning Pyramid
- The Vision Planning Process
- Step 1. Vision Statement
- Service Vision Example
- Step 2. Develop a view of the future environment and test.
- Step 3. Restatement
- Step 4. Backwards deployment (Implementation Plan)
Service Implementation Plan Example
Summary of Vision Planning
Marketstructure
Implementation
- Market Intelligence Feedback
COMPLETED CYCLE OF THE PLANNING ENVIRONMENT
GENERAL US ECONOMIC FORECAST
General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
SURVEY OF BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION ACTIVITIES BY MAJOR PLAYERS
- AT&T
- BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'
- Comcast
- NTT (Japan)
- Orange/FT (French Telecom)
- Telstra (Australian)
- Verizon
- Qwest
- Ciena
- NeoPhotonics
Table of Figures
- Figure 1: Lightwave Network
- Figure 2: Summary of Competitive Position
- Figure 3: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
- Figure 4: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
- Figure 5: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
- Figure 6: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
- Figure 7: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
- Figure 8: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
- Figure 9: Wireless Competition
- Figure 10: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
- Figure 11: The Super Competitors
- Figure 12: Google as a Serious Threat
- Figure 13: Forecast for Google Voice
- Figure 14: Verizon' s NOOF Arrangement
- Figure 15: Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome
- Figure 16: Planning Environment
- Figure 17: IBM' s Gerstner' s Corollaries
- Figure 18: Vision Planning Pyramid
- Figure 19: Vision Planning Approach
- Figure 20: Traditional Planning Approach
- Figure 21: Tom Peter' s List of Good Vision Attributes
- Figure 22: Davenports' Visioning Process
- Figure 23: Service Vision Statement Example
- Figure 24: Vision Statement Examples
- Figure 25: Example of Vision Statement and Implementation Plan for Service
- Figure 26: Summary of Points about Vision
- Figure 27: Marketstructure
- Figure 28: Planning Environment - Completed Cycle
- Figure 29: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
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