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Green Mobile Networks & Base Stations Strategies, Scenarios & Forecasts 2009-2014
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Juniper Research |
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94765 |
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107 Pages |
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Abstract
Overview
This strategic report provides unique scenario based forecasts (incremental,
progressive and transformational) for green mobile base station deployments as
well as total on-grid and off-grid base station power consumption forecasts,
base station electricity costs and CO2 emissions, all split by eight key
regions for six years.
Drawing on a series of in-depth interviews with senior executives from network
operators and infrastructure vendors, the report focuses on means of improving
efficiency within the base station, analysing techniques such as reduced air
conditioning, network planning, automated meter readings, remote radio head
deployment and the use of feederless sites.
The various options for renewable energy including solar power, wind,
biodiesel, fuel cells and pico-hydro are discussed at length and the
possibilities for, and constraints of, each method are analysed.
Key questions:
- What commercial benefits will the introduction of environmentally
sustainable business practices bring to the mobile industry?
- What strategies should operators utilise to reduce energy wastage in the
network?
- To what extent will the widespread deployment of energy efficient base
stations reduce CO2 emissions from the mobile network?
- Which vendors and operators have thus far been most proactive in promoting
and implementing green policies?
- Which operators currently offer networks fuelled by renewable energy?
- How much will the deployment of off-grid base stations fuelled by
renewable energy reduce operator electricity costs?
- What are the opportunities and constraints for renewable energy
deployments?
Key Benefits:
- A unique source of combined research and analysis for the green mobile
market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
- Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities for vendors and operators.
- Unique insights: indudes interviews of leading players with significant
experience of the green mobile market.
- Benefit from fresh thinking and intelligent market assessment.
Table of Contents
Glossary
Executive Summary
- Introduction
- What This Report Covers
- Three Scenarios: Incremental, Progressive, Transformational
- Scenario Comparison
- Base Station CO2 Emissions
- Figure ES1: CO2 Emissions (Mt) from Base Station Electricity Split
by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table ES1: CO2 Emissions (Mt) from Base Station Electricity Split by
Scenario, 2008-2014
- Figure ES2: Base Station CO2 Emissions (kg) Per Mobile Subscriber
Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table ES2: Base Station CO2 Emissions (kg) Per Mobile Subscriber
Split by Scenario, 2008- 2014
- Base Station Electricity Costs
- Figure ES3: Base Station Electricity Costs ($m) Split by Scenario,
2008-2014
- Table ES3: Base Station Electricity Costs ($m) Split by Scenario,
2008-2014
- Figure ES4: Base Station Electricity Usage (kWh) Per Mobile
Subscriber Per Annum Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table ES4: Base Station Electricity Usage (kWh) Per Mobile
Subscriber Per Annum Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Strategic Recommendations
1. The Need for Change
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 The Global Drive for Climate Change
- 1.2.1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
- 1.2.2 Regional and National Legislation
- i. European Union
- a. RoHS & WEEE
- RoHS Direct Impact on the Mobile Industry: The Treo 650
- b. Carbon Trading: Obligations and Opportunities
- 1.3 Key Drivers for Environmentally Sustainable Business Practices
- 1.3.1 Regulatory: Existing CO2 Levels Must be Reduced to Protect the
Environment
- 1.3.2 Consumer-Driven: Environmental Considerations are Influencing
Choice of Product
- 1.3.3 Economic: The Need for Energy Efficiency
- 1.3.4 Economic: The Rising Costs of Fossil Fuels
- 1.4 The Industry Response: Integrated Product Policy (IPP) Pilot
Project
- Figure 1.1: ICT Impacts and Opportunities
- Table 1.1: IPP Pilot Project Stages
- 1.5 The Growth of the Mobile Market and Its Environmental Impact
- 1.5.1 Mobile User Base
- Figure 1.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions,
2007-2014
- Table 1.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2014
- 1.5.2 The Growing Demand for Base Stations
- Figure1.3: Average Number of Subscribers Per Active Base Station Split
by 8 Key Regions, 2014
- Table 1.3: Average Number of Subscribers Per Active Base Station Split
by 8 Key Regions, 2007-2014
- Figure 1.4: Total Number of Active Base Stations (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2007-2014
- Table 1.4: Total Number of Active Base Stations (m) Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2007-2014
- 1.5.3 CO2 Emissions Across the Mobile Industry
- Figure 1.5: Mobile Use Phase, CO2 Emissions, 2008
- i. Consumers
- ii. Radio Base Station
- iii. Network Control, Core & Data Servers
- 1.5.4 Reducing the Footprint
- Figure 1.6: Maintaining a Stable CO2 Footprint - Growth in Mobile
Subscriber Base vs. CO2 Emissions Per User, 2008-2014
- 1.6 Three Scenarios: Incremental, Progressive, Transformational
- Table 1.5: Top-line Scenario-Based Forecast Assumptions
- 1.6.1 Methodology
- Figure 1.7 Forecast Methodology
2. Powering the Network
- 2.1 Key Forms of Renewable Energy
- 2.1.1 Solar Energy
- 2.1.2 Wind
- Figure 2.1: Wind Turbine Designs
- 2.1.3 Other Forms of Renewable Energy
- i. Pico-Hydro Power
- ii. Biodiesel
- iii. Fuel Cells
- 2.2 Renewable Energy in Developed Markets
- Figure 2.2: Selected Operators and Vendors, Percentage Green Electricity
Utilisation, 2008
- Table 2.1: Selected Operators and Vendors, Green Electricity Utilisation
(2008) and Future Targets
- 2.3 Renewable Energy in Developing Markets
- Table 2.2: Energy Efficiency Comparison: Vodafone India versus Other
Vodafone Companies, 2008/9
- 2.3.1 GSMA Green Power Initiative
- 2.3.2 Renewable Energy Deployments in Developing Markets
- i. Case Study: Vodafone/Vodacom
- ii. Case Study: Nokia Siemens Networks/ETC Ethiopia
- Figure 2.3: NSN Solar Panel Array at Ethiopia Base Station
- iii. Case Study: Safaricom
- Figure 2.4: Huawei Wind-solar-diesel Powered BTS, Kenya
- 2.4 Constraints on Renewable Energy
- 2.4.1 Wind Energy
- i. Geographic Location
- ii. Cost
- iii. Turbine Design Must be Optimised to Reflect Localised Conditions
- 2.4.2 Solar Energy
- i. Geographic Location
- ii. Cost
- Figure 2.5: RPI of Solar Modules, US and Europe
- Figure 2.6: Photovoltaic Solar Energy Potential in European Countries
- 2.4.3 Other Renewable Resources
- 2.4 Which Renewable Energy Resource?
- 2.4.1 Developing Markets
- Figure 2.7: Motorola Assessment Model for Network Energy Resource
- i. Capex and Opex
- ii. Location
- iii. Load Requirements
3. Base Station Forecasts
- 3.1 Base Station Deployments
- 3.1.1 Incremental Scenario
- Table 3.1: Incremental Scenario - Base Station Deployments Per Annum
Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.2: Incremental Scenario - Percentage of Deployed Base
Stations Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.1: Incremental Scenario - Annual Deployments of Base Stations
Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.3: Incremental Scenario - Annual Deployments of Base Stations
Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.1.2 Progressive Scenario
- Table 3.4: Progressive Scenario - Base Station Deployments Per Annum
Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.5: Progressive Scenario - Percentage of Annual Deployments of
Base Stations Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Figure 3.2: Progressive Scenario - Annual Deployments of Base Stations
Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.6: Progressive Scenario - Annual Deployments of Base Stations
Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.1.3 Transformational Scenario
- Table 3.7: Transformational Scenario - Base Station Deployments Per
Annum Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.8: Transformational Scenario - Percentage of Annual
Deployments of Base Stations Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.3: Transformational Scenario- Annual Deployments of Base
Stations Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.9: Transformational Scenario - Annual Deployments of Base
Stations Which Utilise Renewable Energy Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.2 Green Electricity
- 3.2.1 Incremental Scenario
- Table 3.10: Incremental Scenario - Percentage of Total Base Station
Electricity Generated by Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.4: Incremental Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GHz) from
Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.11: Incremental Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GWh) from
Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.2.2 Progressive Scenario
- Table 3.12: Progressive Scenario - Percentage of Total Base Station
Electricity Generated by Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.5: Progressive Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GHz) from
Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split By 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.13: Progressive Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GWh) from
Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.2.3 Transformational Scenario
- Table 3.14: Transformational Scenario - Percentage of Total Base
Station Electricity Generated by Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8
Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.6: Transformational Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GWh)
from Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.15: Transformational Scenario - Annual Power Generation (GWh)
from Off-Grid Renewable Resources Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.3 CO2 Emissions
- 3.3.1 Emissions from Grid Electricity
- i. Incremental Scenario
- Figure 3.7: Incremental Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of Base
Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.16: Incremental Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of Base
Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.8: Incremental Scenario - On-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.17: Incremental Scenario - On-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- ii. Progressive Scenario
- Figure 3.9: Progressive Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of Base
Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.18: Progressive Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of Base
Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.10: Progressive Scenario - On-grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.19: Progressive Scenario - On-grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- iii. Transformational Scenario
- Figure 3.11: Transformational Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of
Base Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.20: Transformational Scenario - CO2 Emissions (kg/kWh) of
Base Station Grid Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.12: Transformational Scenario - On-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.21: Transformational Scenario - On-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.3.2 Emissions from Off-Grid Electricity
- i. Incremental Scenario
- Table 3.22: Incremental Scenario - Percentage of Base Station
Electricity Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8
Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.13: Incremental Scenario - Base Station Electricity (GWh)
Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Table 3.23: Incremental Scenario - Base Station Electricity (GWh)
Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Figure 3.14: Incremental Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.24: Incremental Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- ii. Progressive Scenario
- Table 3.25: Progressive Scenario - Percentage of Base Station
Electricity Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.15: Progressive Scenario - Base Station Electricity (GWh)
Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Table 3.26: Progressive Scenario - Base Station Electricity (GWh)
Derived from Diesel- Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Figure 3.16: Progressive Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.27: Progressive Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- iii. Transformational Scenario
- Table 3.28: Transformational Scenario - Percentage of Base Station
Electricity Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 3.17: Transformational Scenario - Base Station Electricity
(GWh) Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key
Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.29: Transformational Scenario - Base Station Electricity (GWh)
Derived from Diesel-Powered Off-Grid Generators Split by 8 Key Regions,
2008-2014
- Figure 3.18: Transformational Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.30: Transformational Scenario - Off-Grid Base Stations, CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 3.3.3 Total Base Station CO2 Emissions 71
- i. Incremental Scenario
- Figure 3.19: Incremental Scenario - Total Base Station CO2 Emissions
(Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.31: Incremental Scenario - Total Base Station CO2 Emissions
(Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- ii. Progressive Scenario
- Figure 3.20: Progressive Scenario - Total Base Station CO2 Emissions
(Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.32: Progressive Scenario - Total Base Station CO2 Emissions
(Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- iii. Transformational Scenario
- Figure 3.22: Transformational Scenario - Total Base Station CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 3.33: Transformational Scenario - Total Base Station CO2
Emissions (Mt) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- iv. Scenario Comparison
- Figure 3.23: CO2 Emissions (Mt) from Base Station Electricity Split
by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table 3.34: CO2 Emissions (Mt) from Base Station Electricity Split
by Scenario, 2008-2014
- 3.3.4 CO2 Emissions per Mobile Subscriber
- Figure 3.24: Base Station CO2 Emissions (kg) Per Mobile Subscriber
Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table 3.35: Base Station CO2 Emissions (kg) Per Mobile Subscriber
Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
4. Enhancing the Network
- 4.1 Introduction
- Figure 4.1: Traditional Base Station Design
- 4.2 How Can Power Wastage be Reduced?
- 4.2.1 Network Planning
- 4.2.2 Increasing Base Station Coverage/Reduce Inefficiency in PA
- Figure 4.2: Heat Dissipation in Power Amplifier, Modulated Voltage vs.
Fixed Voltage
- 4.2.3 Reducing Air Conditioning
- 4.2.4 Using Feederless Sites and Remote Radio Heads
- Figure 4.3: Remote Station Configurations
- i. Case Study: Flexi Base Stations
- Figure 4.3: Nokia Flexi Base Stations
- 4.2.5 Improving Efficiency Within the Cable
- 4.2.6 Energy Saving/Standby
- 4.2.7 Remote Monitoring
- 4.2.8 Site Energy Efficiency
- 4.2.9 Network Sharing
5. Base Station Power Consumption & Electricity Costs
- 5.1 Implied Cost of Base Station Electricity
- Figure 5.1: Global Average Implied Cost of Base Station Electricity
Split by Source, 2008-2014
- Table 5.1: Global Average Implied Cost of Base Station Electricity Split
by Source, 2008-2014
- 5.2 Power Output
- 5.2.1 Incremental Scenario
- Table 5.2: Incremental Scenario. Average Power Output Per Base Station
(W) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.2: Incremental Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station Power
Consumption (GWh) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.3: Incremental Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station Power
Consumption (GWh) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 5.3.2 Progressive Scenario
- Table 5.4: Progressive Scenario - Average Power Output Per Base
Station (W) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.3: Progressive Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station Power
Consumption (GWh) Split 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.5: Progressive Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station Power
Consumption (GWh) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 5.3.3 Transformational Scenario
- Table 5.6: Transformational Scenario - Average Power Output Per Base
Station (W) Split By Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.4: Transformational Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station
Power Consumption (GWh) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.7: Transformational Scenario - Total Mobile Base Station Power
Consumption (GWh) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 5.3 Cost of Electricity
- 5.3.1 Incremental Scenario
- Figure 5.5: Incremental Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of Base
Station Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.8: Incremental Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of Base
Station Electricity Split 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.6: Incremental Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.9: Incremental Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.10: Incremental Scenario - Total Electricity Costs in Relation
to Operator-Billed Revenues (%) by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
- 5.3.2 Progressive Scenario
- Figure 5.7: Progressive Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of Base
Station Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.11: Progressive Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of Base
Station Electricity Split 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.8: Progressive Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.12: Progressive Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.13: Progressive Scenario - Total Electricity Costs in Relation
to Operator-Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 5.3.3 Transformational Scenario
- Figure 5.9: Transformational Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of
Base Station Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.14: Transformational Scenario - Implied Cost per kWh ($) of
Base Station Electricity Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Figure 5.10: Transformational Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.15: Transformational Scenario - Total Operator Base Station
Electricity Costs ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- Table 5.16: Transformational Scenario - Total Electricity Costs in
Relation to Operator-Billed Revenues (%) Split by 8 Key Regions, 2008-2014
- 5.3.4 Scenario Comparison
- Figure 5.11: Base Station Electricity Costs ($m) Split by Scenario,
2008-2014
- Table 5.17: Base Station Electricity Costs ($m) Split by Scenario,
2008-2014
- 5.3.5 Base Station Electricity Usage by Mobile Subscriber
- Figure 5.12: Base Station Electricity Usage (kWh) Per Mobile
Subscriber Per Annum Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
- Table 5.18: Base Station Electricity Usage (kWh) Per Mobile Subscriber
Per Annum Split by Scenario, 2008-2014
6. Environmentally Sustainable Business Practice
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Environmental Management
- 6.2.1 Waste Management
- i. Network-related Waste
- ii. Tertiary Waste
- 6.3 Teleconferencing and Teleworking
- 6.3.1 Case Study: TelePresence
- Figure 6.1: Tandberg TelePresence T3 Videoconferencing Suite
- 6.4 Greener Transport
- 6.4.1 Greener Cars
- 6.4.2 Offset Fleet Emissions
- 6.4.3 Car Pooling
- 6.4.4 Alternative Means of Travel
- 6.5 Efficiencies in Online Data Storage
- 6.6 Smart Networks
- 6.7 Paperless Billing
- Figure 6.2: Orange (France Telecom), Consumer Uptake of Paperless
Billing, Fixed and Mobile Customers 2008
- Table 6.1: Hypothetical Reduction in Paper Wastage & CO2 Emissions Based
on 50% Adoption of Paperless Billing, Selected Markets
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