Russian Federation Broadband and WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts 2008-2012 Second Edition

영문목차

Abstract

This report contains data and analysis on the current opportunities and challenges presented by the Russian BWA/WiMAX markets. The report also provides forecasts of key Russian markets up to 2012. We conducted an in-depth review and analysis of the top ten BWA/WiMAX potential service providers , spectrum activity, and overall regulation. The report also analyzes the competitive environment.

• There are over 200 BWA operators in Russia, with more than 300 networks.
• Russia' s BWA equipment market will see greater consolidation, with marginal players leaving the market or losing market share. Top-4 players will control 75% of the market. Alvarion remains the market leader, but will be losing ground to Motorola in the next few years.
• About 70% of the incremental BWA equipment installed in 2010 will support the 2.5 and 5 GHz frequency bands.
• By 2012 there will be at least two national BWA operators (which will cover 80% of the regions).
• Mobile WiMAX applications in the 2.5 GHz band will be approved in 2009. To provide mobile WiMAX nationwide will require an operator to hold a given frequency throughout the country.
• Broadband penetration remains very low. Nevertheless, large penetration of mobile phones will facilitate switching to broadband, as users become accustomed to everyday applications (MMS, mobile email).
• Many WISPs are reluctant to switch to WiMAX -certified BWA equipment, as they find it incompatible. This enables Russian vendors to continue selling equipment that is non-certified.
• Mobile WiMAX must offer much lower prices to be competitive, as penetration of conventional broadband technologies is rapidly rising (though still at a low level).
• Low PC penetration, excessive bureaucracy, and high CPE costs are growth of the Russian BWA market.
• Many projects in the 2.5 GHz band are almost frozen because(1) "mobility" is not permitted; (2) frequency bands have not been allocated; and (3)the devices are not yet available.
• BWA projects are still considered high-risk investments and therefore have difficulty in raising capital.
• The aocumulated WiMAX subscriber base in Russia will reach 4 million in 2012.
• BWA / WiMAX combined equipment market size will reach $320 million in Russia in 2012, representing 5 times today' s market size.
• WiMAX subscribers will dominate BWA subscribers by 2012 and constitute around 75% of the total subscriber.base. The majority will be residential users and SOHO/SMEs.
• In 2012, the Central and Volga macroregions will have the most BWA subscribers - 200,000 and 150,000, respectively.

The research was conducted through two m ain channels:

Maravedis always strives to provide its clients with a new and unique perspective of the industry, based on its own research. To ensure that we add value to the information already available to stakeholders in the industry , we reviewed most of the market research available on broadband wireless access in Russia, including

• ITU Statistical Yearbook 2006
• The World Bank Development Indicators 2007
• Numerous articles

Primary research is a lengthy but indispen sable process for market research because it yields data neither biased nor distorted by intermediaries. As part of this research, Maravedis conducted interviews with the following:

• All service providers listed in the report
• The Regulatory Authority
• National account managers and other key represe ntatives of equipment vendors active in the Russian market

The survey took place from August to December 2007 and involved discussions with product managers, marketing managers, regulators, technologists , and sales people at various organizational levels.

In creating analytical models for the market estimation, both top -down and bottom-up approaches were used, depending on circumstances and the information available.

Executive Summary

Methodology & Assumptions

1. Overview of Russia' s Telecom Market

• 1.1 Telecom Market Development
• 1.2 Historical Background
• 1.3 Main Segments of the Telecom Industry
• 1.4 Largest Telecom Holdings
• 1.5 Major Telecom Trends in 2006-2007
• 1.6 Mobile Market Analysis
  • 1.6.1 3G licenses
  • 1.6.2 3G strategies
• 1.7 Overview of the Internet Market
  • 1.7.1 Latest development
  • 1.7.2 Market forecast
  • 1.7.3 Electronic Russia and other large -scale initiatives
• 1.8 Internet Service Providers
  • 1.8.1 Historical perspective
  • 1.8.2 Current situation, major trends
• 1.9 Access Technologies
  • 1.9.1 Consumer preferences regarding broadband
  • 1.9.2 Cable/Ethernet
  • 1.9.3 ADSL
  • 1.9.4 Mobile access
  • 1.9.5 Wi-Fi
  • 1.9.6 Satellite access
  • 1.9.7 Power line communications
• 1.10 Profiles of Largest Internet Providers
  • 1.10.1 Golden Telecom
  • 1.10.2 Comstar Direct
  • 1.10.3 Centel
  • 1.10.4 Renova Media
  • 1.10.5 Svyazinvest Companies

2. Broadband Wireless Analysis

• 2.1 Historical Development of BWA in Russia
• 2.2 Current State of BWA in Russia
  • 2.2.1 Network deployments
  • 2.2.2 Networks' geographical distribution
  • 2.2.3 Network distribution by city
• 2.3 Russian BWA/WiMAX Market Sizing
• 2.4 WiMAX Roadmap in Russia
• 2.5 What to Expect in 2007-2008

3. Regulatory Environment

• 3.1 Current BWA Regulation in Russia
  • 3.1.1 2.3 GHz band
  • 3.1.2 2.4 GHz band
  • 3.1.3 2.5-2.7 GHz band
  • 3.1.4 3.5 GHz band
  • 3.1.5 5-6 GHz bands
  • 3.1.6 10.5 GHz band
  • 3.1.7 26 GHz and 28 GHz bands
• 3.2 WiMAX Regulation: What to Expect in 2007 -2008
• 3.3 Licensing Overview
  • 3.3.1 Rules regarding licensing of spectrum
  • 3.3.2 Frequency license acquisition process
  • 3.3.3 Licensing rules

4. BWA/WiMAX Service Providers Analysis

• 4.1 Background
• 4.2 Types of Players
• 4.3 WiMAX Strategies
• 4.4 Environmental Model for WiMAX in Russia
• 4.5 BWA Development Map
• 4.6 Top-10 Russian BWA Operators
  • 4.6.1 Golden Telecom
  • 4.6.2 Effortel (Mediaseti and Riss-Telecom)
  • 4.6.3 Enforta (including Art Communications and Netprovodov)
  • 4.6.4 Infoseti
  • 4.6.5 Synterra
  • 4.6.6 Center Telecom
  • 4.6.7 RM Telecom
  • 4.6.8 Flex
  • 4.6.9 Quantum (Prostor Telecom)
  • 4.6.10 ArtX
• 4.7 Potentially Large Players
  • 4.7.1 Comstar-UTS
  • 4.7.2 Summa Telecom
  • 4.7.3 Start Telecom
  • 4.7.4 Gazprom-Media
  • 4.7.5 Novye Telecommunikazii (New Telecommunications)

5. BWA/WiMAX Vendor Analysis

• 5.1 Alcatel-Lucent
• 5.2 Alvarion
• 5.3 Airspan
• 5.4 Aperto Networks
• 5.5 InfiNet Wireless
• 5.6 Motorola
• 5.7 Nateks

6. Market Forecasts 2008- 2012

• 6.1 Russia Federation Forecasts
• 6.2 Russian Regional Forecasts

• Exhibit 1. Russian market structure
• Exhibit 2. Map of Russia and surrounding region
• Exhibit 3. Russian GDP growth, 1999 -2008
• Exhibit 4. Size of Russian telecommunications services market from 2000 to present (US$ billions)
• Exhibit 5. Breakdown of Russian telecom market by service
• Exhibit 6. Forecast of the Russian telecommunication industry, 2007- 2010 (US$ billions)
• Exhibit 7. Internet users and penetration in Russia, 2001 -2010 (% and millions of users)
• Exhibit 8. Russian mobile subscriber base, 2000 -2007 (millions of registered SIM cards and penetration in %)
• Exhibit 9. Statistics characterizing Russian mobile industry
• Exhibit 10. Russian mobile subscribers in major metropolitan areas
• Exhibit 11. 3G license information
• Exhibit 12. Broadband and Internet penetration
• Exhibit 13. PC sales in Russia
• Exhibit 14. Percentages for various Internet access locations, 1H 2007
• Exhibit 15. Internet growth in Russia from 2001 to 2010 (millions of users and %)
• Exhibit 16. Leaders in broadband market share in Moscow
• Exhibit 17. Subscriber counts for leading broadband providers
• Exhibit 18. Percentages of access technologies in Moscow and Russia
• Exhibit 19. Internet and broadband pe netration in Moscow and Russia
• Exhibit 20. Parameters of typical cable service offerings
• Exhibit 21. Subscriber counts of major ADSL providers
• Exhibit 22. ADSL tariffs in Russia
• Exhibit 23. Tariffs on mobile Internet access
• Exhibit 24. Most popular satellite Internet services in Russia
• Exhibit 25. Golden Telecom subscriber base and foothold, 1H 2007
• Exhibit 26. Stream subscription base, 2003 -2007 (thousands)
• Exhibit 27. Revenue growth for Svyazinvest' s companies
• Exhibit 28. Major Russian BWA/WiMAX projects
• Exhibit 29. Deployment of Russian BWA/WiMAX networks since 2002
• Exhibit 30. Russian deployment of commercial BWA/WiMAX networks (percentage by city size)
• Exhibit 31. Russian deployment of BWA/WiMAX networks (percentage by macroregion)
• Exhibit 32. Russian deployment of BWA/WiMAX networks (average per city size)
• Exhibit 33. Volume of Russian BWA/WiMAX equipment market (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 34. Russian BWA/WiMAX subscriber counts
• Exhibit 35. Top 20 Russian regions in income per capita and gros s regional product
• Exhibit 36. Russian BWA/WiMAX operators in the 3.5 MHz band
• Exhibit 37. Spectrum allocation within the 5 GHz band
• Exhibit 38. Maximum BWA/WiMAX transmitter power (dBWt), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 39. Maximum BWA/WiMAX BS and CPE power (dBWt), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 40. Maximum BWA/WiMAX BS coverage radius (km), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 41. Russian companies that are members of the WiMAX Forum
• Exhibit 42. Companies with the largest license coverage
• Exhibit 43. License distribution by frequency range
• Exhibit 44. Number of subscribers at top-10 operators
• Exhibit 45. BWA/WiMAX pricing plans offered by Mediaseti
• Exhibit 46. Cities in Enforta' s footprint
• Exhibit 47. Map of Enforta' s footprint
• Exhibit 48. Estimated distribution of Enforta' s clientele, by location and network origin
• Exhibit 49. Enforta' s projected revenue growth
• Exhibit 50. Breakdown of Enforta' s subscribers, by user type
• Exhibit 51. BWA/WiMAX pricing plans offered by Art Communicati ons, residential
• Exhibit 52. Infoseti top management
• Exhibit 53. Confirmed regions where Infoseti holds frequency licenses
• Exhibit 54. Bandwidth held by I nfoseti and its subsidiaries
• Exhibit 55. Status of Synterra BWA projects
• Exhibit 56. Synterra tariffs on Moscow market
• Exhibit 57. Regions of presence of Center Telecom
• Exhibit 58. Revenue breakdown of Center Telecom, 2006 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 59. Center Telecom' s network deployment by region
• Exhibit 60. BWA tariffs of RM Telecom
• Exhibit 61. Flex' s coverage of Moscow region
• Exhibit 62. Data services offered by Flex
• Exhibit 63. Regions where Quantum ho lds licenses
• Exhibit 64. Quantum revenue, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 65. Comparison of Quantum' s pricing between May 2006 and October 2007
• Exhibit 66. Cities where Quantum has a BWA presence
• Exhibit 67. Quantum customer categories and their typical bandwidth requirements
• Exhibit 68. Footprint of ArtX network in Moscow region
• Exhibit 69. Current tariffs of ArtX
• Exhibit 70. Comstar-UTS organizational structure
• Exhibit 71. Comstar-UTS subscriber and revenue data for various services
• Exhibit 72. Regions where Comstar -UTS obtained WiMAX frequency licenses
• Exhibit 73. Start Telecom license coverage map
• Exhibit 74. Selected offerings of Novye Telecommunikazii
• Exhibit 75. Share of deployed Russian commercial BWA/WiMAX networks, by vendor
• Exhibit 76. Major BWA/WiMAX equipment available in Russia
• Exhibit 77. The largest BWA networks and their strategic vendors
• Exhibit 78. Alvarion sales trend and breakdown
• Exhibit 79. Major clients and end -users of BreezeNET
• Exhibit 80. Major clients and end -users of BreezeAccess
• Exhibit 81. Major clients and end -users of WalkAir
• Exhibit 82. Breakdown of Alvarion' s deployed commercial networks by fr equency
• Exhibit 83. Airspan revenue, 2002- 2008
• Exhibit 84. Airspan equipment
• Exhibit 85. Equipment currently offered by Aperto in Russia
• Exhibit 86. System integrators/resellers for Aperto
• Exhibit 87. Aperto' s most significant projects in Russia
• Exhibit 88. Distribution of InfiNet deployed networks by macro region (commercial networks only)
• Exhibit 89. Operators/ISPs using InfiNet equipment
• Exhibit 90. Nateks product line
• Exhibit 91. Nateks clients
• Exhibit 92. Annual BWA/WiMAX CPE shipment forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 93. Accumulated CPE installed base, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 94. CPE average selling price forecast, 2008- 2012 (in US$)
• Exhibit 95. Base station shipment forecast, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 96. Base station average selling price forecast, 2008 - 2012 (US$)
• Exhibit 97. BWA and WiMAX equipment market forecast, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 98. Accumulated annual BWA/WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008- 2012 (US$)
• Exhibit 99. WiMAX penetration forecast, 2008- 2012
• Exhibit 100. Shipment split by standard, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 101. WiMAX equipment forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 102. WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 103. BWA and WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in $)
• Exhibit 104. Equipment shipments by frequency band, 2008- 2012 (in %)
• Exhibit 105. Equipment shipments by frequency band, 2008- 2012 (in US$)
• Exhibit 106. Map of Russian regions, with potential BWA/WiMAX market percentage
• Exhibit 107. Cumulative BWA and WiMAX subscriber forecast by region, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 108. Gross Product for Russian macroregions, 2004 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 109. Gross Product of Central macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 110. Gross Product of North-West macroregion, 2005- 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 111. Gross Product of South macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 112. Gross Product of Volga macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 113. Gross Product of Ural macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 114. Gross Product of Siberia macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 115. Gross Product of Far East macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)

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