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시장보고서
Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU: The current market, drivers to growth, future capacity forecasts
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Abstract
Introduction
Electrical production capacity has had historically an energy mix consisting
primarily of fossil fuels including gas, coal and oil, backed up with a volume
of nuclear and hydro power.
The EU-27 countries are trying to lower carbon emissions, and build an
interconnected, efficient energy system. New targets have been created by the
EC that request that by 2020 the EU-27 countries reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by at least 20% (compared with 1990 levels) by 2020; improve energy
efficiency by 20% by 2020; raise the share of renewable energy to 20 % by
2020; increase the level of biofuels in transport fuel to 10% by 2020.
In trying to meet these objectives, a new energy market is beginning to
evolve. Recent addition has been made to the energy mix by way of renewable
energy technologies which include power from the wind - wind turbines, and
power from the sun - solar cells, and geothermal - relying on the heat that
can be found at varying degrees of depth into the Earth' s surface. In the last
decade newly installed renewable energy technologies are starting to gain a
notable share of the market.
Key findings
- Germany has the largest volume of installed renewable energy technology
topping the market in wind and solar, the two field leading technologies.
Germany has installed around 2 GW of grid connected solar photovoltaics
annually for the last two years.
- Hydroelectric power makes up almost two thirds of the current renewable
energy electrical generation market.
- Geothermal energy only utilized for electricity generation in Italy,
Iceland, Portugal and Turkey. The market share of geothermal capacity only
accounts for 1% of the total installed capacity. Iceland makes up 61% of the
geothermal market share.
- In terms of market share, the annual installed capacity of wind has grown
from 0% in 1995 to 30% in 2007.
Key features of this report
- Analysis of energy type volumes, capacity installed and generation output
across European countries.
- Market projections to 2020, including an evaluation of energy type and
national and international growth potential.
- Overview of trends impacting on and shaping innovation in the energy
market.
- New renewable energy technology analysis including innovation, capacity
investment.
Use this report to
- Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how European market
trends and legislation are influencing the development of the renewable energy
market.
- Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive review
of European markets in the renewable energy market between 1990 and 2008.
- Assess the emerging trends in renewable energy technology - wind, solar,
geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal, wave - capacity and generation.
Discover
- What are the drivers shaping and influencing new capacity installed in the
energy industry?
- How will renewable energy technologies capacity share perform to 2020?
What are the opportunities?
- What are the forecast market growth rates 2008-2030? Which markets will
see the highest value growth and which the highest volume growth?
- Which regions and countries offer the greatest opportunity for growth?
Table of Contents
Executive summary
- Energy security and environmental drivers
- Infrastructure
- Current state of EU energy market
- Wind capacity in the EU
- Solar capacity in the EU
- Future outlook for the renewable energy market
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Energy security and environmental drivers
- Summary
- Introduction
- Energy security
- Fossil fuel generation and emissions
- Resource depletion and alternatives to oil
- The pace of resource depletion
- Liquid alternatives to oil
- Replacing existing capacity
- Environmental concerns
- Population growth
- CO2 emissions by country
- Global warming
- Renewable energy and energy efficiency targets in the EU
Chapter 3 Infrastructure
- Summary
- Introduction
- Interconnections
- Energy networks
- Current international interconnections
- Planned international interconnections
- Grid extension to accommodate renewables
- Grid infrastructure
- Grid connection issues
- Grid connection costs
- Intelligent grid management
- Grid upgrades
- Future renewable infrastructure/ grid requirements
- Med Ring
- African connection
- Intercontinental HVDC interconnection
- Super Grid
- EU wind map
- EU solar map
Chapter 4 Current state of the EU energy market
- Summary
- Introduction
- Energy demand in the EU (consumption)
- Total energy consumption
- Final energy consumption
- EU-27 electricity capacity
- Capacity factor
- Electricity installed capacity mix
- Wind capacity
- Solar capacity
- Geothermal capacity
- Hydropower capacity
- EU-27 electricity generation
- Gross electricity generation
- Recent installed energy capacity summary
- Percentage mix of what has been recently installed in Europe
Chapter 5 Wind capacity in the EU
- Summary
- Introduction
- The European wind market
- Leading countries
- Cumulative wind power
- New installed wind
- Installed capacity dominating the market
- Electricity production from installed wind power
- Wind capacity planned and under construction
- Drivers of European wind power market capacity
- The cost of wind power
- Wind capital costs
- Wind integration costs
- Government legislation effecting the wind market in Europe
- Regulatory price-driven mechanisms
- Quantity-based market schemes
- Voluntary approaches
- Indirect strategies
- Current wind support mechanisms in the EU
Chapter 6 Solar capacity in the EU
- Summary
- Introduction
- The European solar market
- Leading countries
- Cumulative solar capacity
- New installed solar capacity
- Solar capacity planned and under construction
- Drivers of European solar market capacity
- The cost of solar power
- Competitiveness of grid-connected applications
- Factors affecting PV cost reductions
- Government legislation effecting the solar PV market in Europe
- Renewable energy ' Feed-in-Tariff' (REFIT)
- Financing
- Administration
- Guaranteed grid access
- Government and industry commitment
Chapter 7 Future outlook for the European renewable energy market
- Summary
- Introduction
- Future energy consumption
- Population growth
- Population forecasts
- Increased electrical generation capacity based on population growth
- Energy consumption and its impact
- Overall energy consumption
- Oil consumption
- Future carbon emissions
- Oil price rises
- Future energy consumption by type to 2020
- Renewable energy percentage mix to 2020
- Scenarios for implementation of renewable electricity generation capacity
- Wind growth to 2020
- Onshore wind
- Offshore wind
- Solar power growth to 2020
- Wind and solar cumulative capacity by 2020
- Other renewables
- Problems with increasing mass hydropower capacity
- Other renewable energy growth to 2020
- Issues with switching to renewable technologies
- Capacity factor
- Efficiency
- Conclusions
- Summary of issues
- Gross electricity production supplied by renewables
- Electricity generation by type
- Current generation mix
- Future final energy supplied by renewables
- Future European electricity generation scenarios
- Reference scenario
- High scenario
- Low scenario
Appendix
- Bibliography
- References
- Primary and secondary data sources
- Index
List of Figures
- Figure 2.1: CO2 emissions by fuel (CO2/GJ), 2007
- Figure 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion (years), 2009
- Figure 2.3: Changing UK generation capacity format (MW), 2003-2007
- Figure 2.4: Replacing old capacity with renewables (MW), 2003-2007
- Figure 2.5: EU-27 Population growth (millions of people), 1998 to 2008
- Figure 2.6: EU-27 Population growth projection (millions of people),
2010-2060
- Figure 2.7: EU generated carbon emissions (Million Metric tonnes of
Carbon), 2006
- Figure 2.8: EU 27 CO2 emissions by sector, 1990-2006
- Figure 2.9: CO2 levels in the atmosphere (PPM), 1959-2008
- Figure 3.10: Interconnectors in Europe, 2009
- Figure 3.11: Interconnectors in the North Sea, 2008
- Figure 3.12: The Mediterranean Ring, 2005
- Figure 3.13: European wind speed map
- Figure 3.14: EU Solar map, 2006
- Figure 4.15: Gross inland consumption - EU27 by fuel (in Mtoe), 2006
- Figure 4.16: Total EU-27 energy consumption by fuel (Mtoe), 2006
- Figure 4.17: EU-27 Energy consumption by fuel (% usage compared to 1990),
2006
- Figure 4.18: Explanation of capacity factor
- Figure 4.19: Energy capacity mix in Europe (GW), end 2008
- Figure 4.20: Installed power capacity in the EU (MW), 1990-2008
- Figure 4.21: New installed capacity in Europe by type (MW), 2008
- Figure 4.22: EU net increase/decrease in power capacity (MW), 2000-2008
- Figure 4.23: Annual installed capacity in the EU by type (% share), 1995
and 2007
- Figure 4.24: EU-27 electricity generation growth (%), 1990-2006
- Figure 4.25: New power capacity installed in 2008 (MW)
- Figure 5.26: Cumulative wind power installed in the EU (MW), 2008
- Figure 5.27: Life cycle carbon emissions (CO2 equivalent/GW)
- Figure 5.28: Additional installed wind capacity by year (MW), 1995-2008
- Figure 5.29: Germany, Spain and Denmark' s share of EU market for wind
power (MW), 2000-2008
- Figure 7.30: Population growth forecast (billions of people), 1990-2030
- Figure 7.31: World market energy consumption (Btu), 1990-2008
- Figure 7.32: Primary energy consumption in the EU by fuel (Mtoe), 2008
- Figure 7.33: Population and oil consumption growth (bn), 1965-2007
- Figure 7.34: Global CO2 emissions growth (Million Metric Tonnes CO2),
1990-2030
- Figure 7.35: Europe energy consumption by type (Btu), 1990-2030
- Figure 7.36: High, reference and low onshore wind power scenarios for EU,
(GW), 2010 to 2030
- Figure 7.37: Three offshore wind power scenarios for EU, (GW), 2010 to 2030
- Figure 7.38: EPIA EU Solar projection (GW), 2008-2013
- Figure 7.39: EurObserv' ER EU Solar projection (MW), 2006 to 2010
- Figure 7.40: Increasing solar cell efficiency (%), 1975-2008
- Figure 7.41: Generation technology comparison
- Figure 7.42: Share of generation in Europe by energy type (%), 2020
List of Tables
- Table 2.1: EU-27 energy dependency (consumption v imports Mtoe), 2008
- Table 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009
- Table 2.3: Biofuels comparison (Liters of Oil Yields), to 2009
- Table 2.4: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%)
- Table 3.5: Electricity consumption and exchanges in regions in Europe
(TWh), 2006
- Table 4.6: Gross inland consumption (Mtoe), 2006
- Table 4.7: EU-27 final energy consumption (TWh), 2006
- Table 4.8: Typical capacity factors for power generating plants (%)
- Table 4.9: Gross electricity generation in EU-27 by type (GWh), 2006
- Table 4.10: EU-27 electricity production by source (%), 2006
- Table 4.11: Gross electricity generation from renewables in EU-27 (GWh),
2006
- Table 5.12: Wind power total and newly installed (MW), 2009
- Table 5.13: Wind offshore* power total installed capacity (MW), 2007 and
2008
- Table 5.14: EU27 Electricity production from wind power (MW), 2008
- Table 5.15: Wind power constructions and planning until 2015, Jan 2009
- Table 5.16: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/KW), 2003 and 2007
- Table 5.17: Wind support schemes for EU-27 countries, 2008
- Table 6.18: Total cumulative solar photovoltaic installed (MW), ending 2008
- Table 6.19: Additional photovoltaic capacity installed in the EU (MW), 2008
- Table 7.20: Oil price per barrel (€ ), 2000-2030
- Table 7.21: Wind electricity production forecast to 2030 (TWh), 2008
- Table 7.22: Electricity generation matrix, 2006
- Table 7.23: EU electricity generation capacity (GW), 2006-2008
- Table 7.24: Energy consumption (TWh) and capacity growth (GW), 2008-2020
- Table 7.25: Reference EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh),
2008-2020
- Table 7.26: High EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020
- Table 7.27: Low EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020
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