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Singapore Country Risk Report

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LSH 19.04.24

We have revised our 2020 real GDP forecast down to -6.0% from -5.5% previously and our 2021 real GDP forecast up to 5.8% from 5.2% previously. A planned, further round easing of lockdown measures should provide the impetus for a further pickup in growth in Q420, though there is little upside for the external sector given the resurgence of Covid-19 cases around the world. Government consumption will remain the key driver of growth for the rest of 2020 and remain significant in 2021, given the extension of support measures announced on October 5.

We have revised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for 2020 to 8.2% of GDP, from 13.2% previously to bring our forecast closer in line with official estimates that we regard as credible. Expenditures have come in lower than both our and the government's expectations, primarily due to delays in construction projects amid the Covid-19 outbreak among the foreign worker community. Revenues have also been revised downward to 13.7% of GDP from 16.2% previously, due to poor economic conditions, but not to the same extent as expenditures, resulting in our narrower primary deficit forecast.

We expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to remain on hold in 2021 and persist with its relatively accommodative monetary policy, in light of what we see as a still-dovish tone in its monetary policy statement released on October 14. Inflation is likely to pick up but remain benign in 2021 as loose labour market conditions are likely to persist during the year, allowing relatively easing monetary policy to continue. Moreover, Singapore's likely strong rebound in terms of real GDP growth in 2021 belies the likelihood that economic conditions, both domestic and global, will still be shaky, and the central bank will want to remain accommodative in order not to derail the recovery.

We have revised our 2020 average exchange rate forecast to SGD1.3850/USD, from SGD1.3950/USD previously, as well as our 2021 forecast to SGD1.3700/ USD from SGD1.3800/USD previously. Over the short term, we see more room for the SGD's rally to run given a bullish technical outlook and the contrasting situations in the US and Singapore. Amid heightened uncertainty pre-elections, the US struggles to contain the Covid-19 outbreak while Singapore is preparing to enter the next phase of economic re-opening with a near-zero caseload of Covid-19. We expect the unit to strengthen slightly over the longer term as the economic recovery continues bolstering Singapore's external sector and with further support from the central bank likely to remain on hold.

We expect immigration to remain a divisive issue over the coming years, with the government likely to face an increasingly difficult task in ensuring that the ma- jority of citizens remain convinced that foreign talent is vital to the continued prosperity of the country. The electorate is likely to become increasingly sceptical of the assertion that there are jobs that Singaporeans cannot perform, especially in more established sectors such as banking and finance. The government's refusal to release a detailed breakdown of the workforce by nationality and residential status could increasingly be seen as an unwillingness to tackle what some citizens view as problematic levels of immigration. If the issue festers and further saps support for the government among the electorate, other areas of policy, such as fiscal policy, could be affected over the coming years. Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2020 real GDP forecast to -6.0% from -5.5% previously.

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3850/USD, from SGD1.3950/USD previously. Key Risks

A return to lockdown measures on the back of a second wave of Covid-19 infections remains the most significant downside risk over the short term. Singapore Country Risk Q1 2021fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Singapore 2020 Growth Revised Down To -6.0%
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Authority Of Singapore Likely To Remain On Hold Through To 2021
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Singapore 2020 Fiscal Deficit Forecast Narrowed Amid Construction Delays
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Singapore Country Risk Q1 2021ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Singapore Dollar Rally To Continue Through To 2020
    • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS SINGAPORE CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2029
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2029
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Political Risk Analysis
  • Singapore To Remain Locked In Debate Over Immigration
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: INWARD FDI STOCK SOURCE BY COUNTRY
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Recovery Ahead, But Challenges Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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