국가위험도 리포트 : 싱가포르

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Key View

싱가포르의 '4세대'라고 불리는 지도자들은 더 중대한 지도적 역할을 수행할 조짐을 보이고 있으며, 도시 국가의 지속적인 지도력 승계 과정에 잘 적응하고 있습니다. 야당의 목소리가 더 강력해지고 있는 가운데 차세대 지도자는 전임자보다 많은 어려움에 직면할 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 3세대 지도자들이 현재 정치 분야에서 사라지지 않을 것이므로 싱가포르의 전반적인 정치 전망은 안정세를 유지할 것으로 보입니다. 외교 정책 관점에서 싱가포르와 말레이시아간의 관계가 신구 과제 모두에서 국경간 긴장이 다시 시작되었기 때문에 양국간 관계는 냉랭함을 유지할 것으로 예측됩니다. 싱가포르 경제는 지속적인 무역분쟁과 국내 건설 산업의 성장 둔화, 개인 소비 침체 등에 의해 향후 냉각될 것으로 보입니다. 정부는 재정적으로 신중한 자세를 보이고 있으며, 고령화나 구조적 변화에 의한 지출 증가에 대응하기 위해 향후 몇 년간 소비세 증수를 계획하고 있습니다.

주요 위험

싱가포르의 튼튼한 기반에도 불구하고 중국 경제의 급속한 둔화에 기인한 외수 부진과 국내 경제 구조 조정이 향후 몇 분기에 걸쳐 기술적인 불황을 야기할 수 있습니다.

목차

주요 요약

• Core View
• 주요 예측 변화
• 주요 위험
• 국가위험도 개요
• 경제적 위험 지수
• 정치적 위험 지수
• SWOT 분석
• 경제 : SWOT 분석
• 정치 : SWOT 분석
• 경제 전망
• 경제 성장 전망
• 세계적인 역풍이 높아짐에 따라 2019년 싱가포르의 성장은 한층 더 둔화
• GDP 전망 : 지출별
• 외부 지위 전망
• 금융 정책
• 싱가포르 통화 당국에 의해 강화되는 대외적인 약한 전망
• 금융 정책
• 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
• 싱가포르는 대외위험을 경감하기 위해서 재정 정책을 완화
• 구조적 재정 상태
• 통화 예측
• 무역 불확실성에도 불구하고 강력한 거시적 펀더멘탈이 싱가포르 달러를 지원
• 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
• 2028년까지 싱가포르의 경제
• 2028년까지 꾸준한 성장 궤도
• 정치적 전망
• 국내 정치
• 해역과 공역을 둘러싼 분쟁에 의해 악화되는 싱가포르와 말레이시아 양국간 관계
• 장기적인 정치 전망
• 향후 10년간 정치적 자유화가 더뎌질 전망
• 운용 위험
• 분쟁 위험
• 교통망
• 세계의 거시적 동향
• 성장 감속 위험
• 색인

We have revised our 2020 real GDP forecast down to -6.0% from -5.5% previously and our 2021 real GDP forecast up to 5.8% from 5.2% previously. A planned, further round easing of lockdown measures should provide the impetus for a further pickup in growth in Q420, though there is little upside for the external sector given the resurgence of Covid-19 cases around the world. Government consumption will remain the key driver of growth for the rest of 2020 and remain significant in 2021, given the extension of support measures announced on October 5.

We have revised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for 2020 to 8.2% of GDP, from 13.2% previously to bring our forecast closer in line with official estimates that we regard as credible. Expenditures have come in lower than both our and the government's expectations, primarily due to delays in construction projects amid the Covid-19 outbreak among the foreign worker community. Revenues have also been revised downward to 13.7% of GDP from 16.2% previously, due to poor economic conditions, but not to the same extent as expenditures, resulting in our narrower primary deficit forecast.

We expect Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to remain on hold in 2021 and persist with its relatively accommodative monetary policy, in light of what we see as a still-dovish tone in its monetary policy statement released on October 14. Inflation is likely to pick up but remain benign in 2021 as loose labour market conditions are likely to persist during the year, allowing relatively easing monetary policy to continue. Moreover, Singapore's likely strong rebound in terms of real GDP growth in 2021 belies the likelihood that economic conditions, both domestic and global, will still be shaky, and the central bank will want to remain accommodative in order not to derail the recovery.

We have revised our 2020 average exchange rate forecast to SGD1.3850/USD, from SGD1.3950/USD previously, as well as our 2021 forecast to SGD1.3700/ USD from SGD1.3800/USD previously. Over the short term, we see more room for the SGD's rally to run given a bullish technical outlook and the contrasting situations in the US and Singapore. Amid heightened uncertainty pre-elections, the US struggles to contain the Covid-19 outbreak while Singapore is preparing to enter the next phase of economic re-opening with a near-zero caseload of Covid-19. We expect the unit to strengthen slightly over the longer term as the economic recovery continues bolstering Singapore's external sector and with further support from the central bank likely to remain on hold.

We expect immigration to remain a divisive issue over the coming years, with the government likely to face an increasingly difficult task in ensuring that the ma- jority of citizens remain convinced that foreign talent is vital to the continued prosperity of the country. The electorate is likely to become increasingly sceptical of the assertion that there are jobs that Singaporeans cannot perform, especially in more established sectors such as banking and finance. The government's refusal to release a detailed breakdown of the workforce by nationality and residential status could increasingly be seen as an unwillingness to tackle what some citizens view as problematic levels of immigration. If the issue festers and further saps support for the government among the electorate, other areas of policy, such as fiscal policy, could be affected over the coming years. Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2020 real GDP forecast to -6.0% from -5.5% previously.

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3850/USD, from SGD1.3950/USD previously. Key Risks

A return to lockdown measures on the back of a second wave of Covid-19 infections remains the most significant downside risk over the short term. Singapore Country Risk Q1 2021fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Core Views
• Major Forecast Changes
• Key Risks
• Country Risk Summary
• Economic Risk Index
• Political Risk Index
• SWOT
• Economic - SWOT Analysis
• Political - SWOT Analysis
• Economic Outlook
• Economic Growth Outlook
• Singapore 2020 Growth Revised Down To -6.0%
• GDP By Expenditure Outlook
  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
• Outlook On External Position
  • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
  • TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
• Monetary Policy
• Monetary Authority Of Singapore Likely To Remain On Hold Through To 2021
• Monetary Policy Framework
  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
• Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
• Singapore 2020 Fiscal Deficit Forecast Narrowed Amid Construction Delays
• Structural Fiscal Position
  • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
• THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Singapore Country Risk Q1 2021ContentsCurrency Forecast
• Singapore Dollar Rally To Continue Through To 2020
  • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS SINGAPORE CURRENCY FORECAST
• 10-Year Forecast
• The Singaporean Economy To 2029
• Solid Growth Trajectory To 2029
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
• Political Outlook
• Political Risk Analysis
• Singapore To Remain Locked In Debate Over Immigration
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
• Long-Term Political Outlook
• Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
• Operational Risk
  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
• Economic Openness
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: INWARD FDI STOCK SOURCE BY COUNTRY
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
• Utilities Network
  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS
• Global Macro Outlook
• Recovery Ahead, But Challenges Remain
  • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
  • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
• Index Tables
  • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS