국가위험도 리포트 : 말레이시아

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말레이시아의 2018년 실질 GDP 성장률은 5.1%에서 4.6%로, 2019년 성장률은 4.5%에서 4.2%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 2018년 수정사항에는 예상을 밑도는 2018년 3사분기 결과와 4사분기의 성장이 둔화될 것이라는 전망이 반영되었습니다. 개인소비를 제외한 GDP의 거의 모든 지출 항목에 대한 우려가 2019년 말레이시아의 성장에 악영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다. 2018년 하반기의 부진한 실적과 길어지는 정치적 불확실성을 반영하여 2019년 말레이시아 통화 평균 예상치를 1USD당 4.20링깃에서 4.25링깃으로 수정했습니다.

말레이시아의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

• Core View
• 주요 예측 변경사항
• 주요 위험
• 국가위험도 개요
• 경제적 위험 지수
• 정치적 위험 지수
• SWOT 분석
• 경제 : SWOT 분석
• 정치 : SWOT 분석
• 경제 전망
• 경제 성장 전망
• 말레이시아의 성장은 한층 더 감속
• 지출별 GDP 전망
• 외부 지위 전망
• 금융 정책
• 말레이시아 국립은행(BNM)은 2019년 성장 둔화와 인플레이션에 직면
• 금융 정책
• 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
• 말레이시아의 2019년 예산 : 석유 수입 의존은 재정 건전성에 위험을 초래
• 구조적 재정 상태
• 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
• 장기간의 정치적 불확실성을 배경으로 2020년까지 말레이시아 통화 링깃이 하락
• 10년간 예측
• 2028년까지 말레이시아의 경제
• 말레이시아의 실질 GDP 성장률은 4.4%로 둔화
• 정치적 전망
• 국내 정치
• 안와르의 인기를 억제하는 말레이시아 희망동맹(PH)
• 장기적인 정치 전망
• 말레이시아의 선거 정책은 불확실
• 운용 위험
• 분쟁 위험
• 운송 네트워크
• 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
• 불안정성이 성장 감속요인
• 색인표

We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2020 and 2021 real GDP forecasts for Malaysia to -4.5% and 6.3% respectively from -2.8% and 5.7% previously. The steep 17.1% y-o-y contraction in Q220, as well as heavy drags on both domestic and external demand in H220 from continuing movement and travel restrictions, are the key drivers of the downward revision in 2020. Meanwhile, we continue to expect a strong recovery in economic growth in 2021, with more domestic move- ment and international travel restrictions likely to be lifted. Combined with a broad global recovery, both domestic and external demand are likely to return to trend levels in 2021. We have revised our rate forecast to 1.75%, from 1.00% previously, for 2020 and 2.25%, from 2.00% for 2021. The central bank appears to want to build policy buffers in preparation for future negative economic shocks. Both growth and inflation are likely to return to healthy growth levels in 2021, which would allow the central bank to hike rates with less concerns around disinflation and harming the recovery, as is the case in 2020. Despite a raised government debt limit of 60% of GDP, we still see constrained fiscal spending over the coming quarters due to an elevated government debt load following stimulus spending to support the economy against Covid-19 headwinds. The debt limit is likely to remain at 60% until the temporary raised limit expires in 2022, but with the debt load already at 59% of GDP, there is little space for more stimulus to support the recovery. Interest payments are likely to remain a relatively small part of the government's expenditure, with the central bank likely to act to keep government bond yields at a manageable level. We have revised our average ringgit forecast to MYR4.25/USD and MYR4.15/USD for 2020 and 2021 respectively. Over the short term, we expect the ringgit to give up some of its gains against the US dollar as the latter appears to be oversold. Over the long term, tighter monetary policy and undervaluation will support a slight degree of appreciation in the ringgit, offset slightly by higher inflation in Malaysia compared to the US. We continue to see a government beset by both internal and external challenges, and expect elevated political risk to persist over the coming months. The Peri- katan Nasional government still faces an opposition determined to poach its MPs and depose it, inter-party strife between its component parties and increasing risks of open intra-party strife within its largest component party, UMNO. Its continued existence remains doubtful in our opinion and we do not rule out snap elections over the coming months. Furthermore, with only a two-seat majority in parliament, policymaking is likely to be hampered for the remainder of the government's term. Key Risks Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, but risks are rising with the severe economic disruptions brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. Malaysia Country Risk Q1 2021fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Core Views
• Key Risks
• Country Risk Summary
• Economic Risk Index
• Political Risk Index
• SWOT
• Economic - SWOT Analysis
• Political - SWOT Analysis
• Economic Outlook
• Economic Growth Outlook
• Malaysia To See Worst Recession Since 1997 Crisis
• GDP By Expenditure Outlook
  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
• Outlook On External Position
  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
• Monetary Policy
• Bank Negara Malaysia To Build Policy Buffers In 2021
• Monetary Policy Framework
  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
• Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
• Constrained Fiscal Spending Despite Malaysia's Raised Debt Limit
• Structural Fiscal Position
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE & REVENUE CATEGORIES
• Currency Forecast
• Malaysian Ringgit To Strengthen Slightly Over 2020, 2021
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
• THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Malaysia Country Risk Q1 2021Contents10-Year Forecast
• The Malaysian Economy To 2029
• Malaysia 10-Year Forecast: Middle-Income Trap Looms Large
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
• Political Outlook
• Domestic Politics
• Malaysia's Political Risks Rising After Najib's Conviction
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
• Long-Term Political Outlook
• Race Relations Still Cloud The Horizon
• Operational Risk
  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
• Economic Openness
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: INWARD FDI STOCK SOURCE BY COUNTRY
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
• Utilities Network
  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS
• Global Macro Outlook
• Larger Contraction Now, But Stronger Recovery Ahead
  • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
  • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
• Index Tables
  • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS