°øÁö : µµÄìÁõ±Ç°Å·¡¼Ò JASDAQ ½ºÅÄ´Ùµå ½ÃÀå ½Å±Ô »óÀå °ü·Ã ¾È³»

Global Information
ȸ»ç¼Ò°³ | ¹®ÀÇ | ºñ±³¸®½ºÆ®

±¹°¡À§Çèµµ ¸®Æ÷Æ® : Çʸ®ÇÉ

Philippines Country Risk Report

¸®¼­Ä¡»ç Fitch Solutions, Inc.
¹ßÇàÁ¤º¸ ¿¬°£±¸µ¶ »óǰ ÄÚµå 203087
ÆäÀÌÁö Á¤º¸ ¿µ¹® 73 Pages
°¡°Ý
US $ 1,245 £Ü 1,414,000 PDF (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


±¹°¡À§Çèµµ ¸®Æ÷Æ® : Çʸ®ÇÉ Philippines Country Risk Report
¹ßÇàÁ¤º¸ : ÆäÀÌÁö Á¤º¸ : ¿µ¹® 73 Pages

¡Ø º» »óǰÀº ¿µ¹® ÀÚ·á·Î Çѱ۰ú ¿µ¹®¸ñÂ÷¿¡ ºÒÀÏÄ¡ÇÏ´Â ³»¿ëÀÌ ÀÖÀ» °æ¿ì ¿µ¹®À» ¿ì¼±ÇÕ´Ï´Ù. Á¤È®ÇÑ °ËÅ並 À§ÇØ ¿µ¹®¸ñÂ÷¸¦ Âü°íÇØÁֽñ⠹ٶø´Ï´Ù.

Çʸ®ÇÉÀÇ ½ÇÁú GDP ¼ºÀå·ü ¿¹ÃøÀº 6.3%¿¡¼­ 2018³â¿¡´Â 6.2%·Î, 2019³â ¼ºÀå·üÀº 6.1%·Î ÇÏÇâ ¼öÁ¤µÇ¾ú½À´Ï´Ù. ÅëÈ­ ±äÃà, ÀÎÇ÷¹ÀÌ¼Ç Áö¼Ó, ¼ÒºñÀÚ ½Å·Úµµ Ç϶ô µî¿¡ ÀÇÇØ ¹Î°£¼Òºñ ¼ºÀåÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ³·Àº ¼öÁØÀ» À¯ÁöÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøµË´Ï´Ù. ¶ÇÇÑ Á¤ºÎÀÇ ÀçÁ¤ °³ÇõÀ» µÑ·¯½Ñ »ç¾÷ ȯ°æ ¾ÇÈ­¿Í ¼¼±ÝÁ¦µµÀÇ ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀº ÇâÈÄ ¸î ºÐ±â µ¿¾È ¹Î°£ÅõÀÚ¸¦ ¾ïÁ¦ÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÁöÀûµÇ°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. Çʸ®ÇÉÀÇ ÀçÁ¤ ÀûÀÚ´Â 2019³â GDPÀÇ 2.9%¿¡ À̸¦ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøµË´Ï´Ù. ÀçÁ¤ ¹× ÅëÈ­ ¿ÏÈ­ Á¤Ã¥ °á°ú·Î °Å½Ã°æÁ¦ ¾ÈÁ¤¼º¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÇϹæ À§ÇèÀÌ Áõ°¡Çϰí ÀÖÁö¸¸, Çʸ®ÇÉÀº Çö½ÃÁ¡¿¡¼­ ¾çÈ£ÇÑ »óŸ¦ À¯ÁöÇϰí ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ´ë¿Ü°ü°è¿¡¼­´Â Çʸ®Çɰú Áß±¹ÀÇ ¾ç±¹°£ °ü°è¿Í °æÁ¦Çù·ÂÀÌ ÇâÈÄ ¸î ³â°£ ÇÑÃþ ´õ ±í¾îÁú °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøµË´Ï´Ù.

Çʸ®ÇÉÀÇ ±¹°¡À§Çèµµ(Country Risk)¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á¶»çÇßÀ¸¸ç, °æÁ¦Àû¡¤Á¤Ä¡Àû À§Çè °³¿ä, SWOT ºÐ¼®, °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀå Àü¸Á°ú µ¿Çâ, ±ÝÀ¶ Á¤Ã¥, ½ÃÀå ¿¹Ãø, ±¹³»¿Ü Á¤Ä¡ Á¤¼¼ µî¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á¤¸®Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

¸ñÂ÷

ÁÖ¿ä ¿ä¾à

  • Core View
  • ÁÖ¿ä À§Çè
  • ±¹°¡À§Çèµµ °³¿ä
  • °æÁ¦Àû À§Çè Áö¼ö
  • Á¤Ä¡Àû À§Çè Áö¼ö
  • SWOT ºÐ¼®
  • °æÁ¦ : SWOT ºÐ¼®
  • Á¤Ä¡ : SWOT ºÐ¼®
  • °æÁ¦ Àü¸Á
  • °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀå Àü¸Á
  • Çʸ®ÇÉÀº ¼ºÀå µÐÈ­ È帧À» ²÷±â À§ÇØ ³ë·Â
  • ÁöÃ⺰ GDP Àü¸Á
  • ¿ÜºÎ ÁöÀ§ Àü¸Á
  • ±ÝÀ¶ Á¤Ã¥
  • 2019³â Çʸ®ÇÉÀÇ Ãß°¡ ±Ý¸® ÀÎ»ó °¡´É¼º
  • ±ÝÀ¶ Á¤Ã¥
  • ÀçÁ¤ Á¤Ã¥°ú °øÀû 乫 Àü¸Á
  • Çʸ®ÇÉ ÀçÁ¤Àº È®´ë Áö¼Ó
  • ±¸Á¶Àû ÀçÁ¤ »óÅÂ
  • Çʸ®ÇÉ Æä¼Ò´Â 2019³â ¿Ï¸¸ÇÑ Ç϶ô¼¼
  • º» º¸°í¼­´Â Fitch Solutions Macro Research°¡ °øÇ¥ÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î, Fitch Ratings ½Å¿ë µî±ÞÀÌ ¾Æ´Õ´Ï´Ù. º¸°í¼­¿¡ Æ÷ÇԵǴ ³íÆòÀ̳ª µ¥ÀÌÅÍ´Â Fitch Solutions Macro Research¿Í µ¶¸³µÈ Á¤º¸ Ãâó¸¦ ÅëÇØ¼­¸¸ ¾òÀº °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. Fitch RatingsÀÇ ¾Ö³Î¸®½ºÆ®´Â Fitch Solutions Macro Research¿Í µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ °øÀ¯Çϰí ÀÖÁö ¾Ê½À´Ï´Ù.
  • 2028³â±îÁö Çʸ®ÇÉÀÇ °æÁ¦
  • ³ôÀº ÅõÀÚÀ²ÀÌ °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀåÀ» Áö¼Ó
  • Á¤Ä¡Àû Àü¸Á
  • ±¹³» Á¤Ä¡
  • Çʸ®Çɰú Áß±¹ÀÇ °ü°è´Â °³¼±µÉ Àü¸Á
  • Àå±âÀûÀÎ Á¤Ä¡ Àü¸Á
  • °Å¹ö³Í½º °³¼± Àü¸Á
  • ¿î¿ë À§Çè
  • ºÐÀï À§Çè
  • ¿î¼Û ³×Æ®¿öÅ©
  • ¼¼°èÀÇ °Å½ÃÀû µ¿Çâ Àü¸Á
  • º¯µ¿¼ºÀÌ ´õµò ¼ºÀåÀÇ ¿øÀÎ
  • »öÀÎ
LSH 19.04.24

The Covid-19 outbreak has led us to dramatically change our growth forecast for the Philippines. We at Fitch Solutions now forecast the Philippines economy to contract 9.1% in 2020, down from a previous forecast for a 2.0% fall, reflecting the unparalleled shock to the economy the Covid-19 pandemic has proved. We expect the budget deficit to average 7.7% of GDP from 2020 to 2023, from a prior forecast of an average 4.3%. We also have revised our peso forecast to average PHP49.78/USD and PHP50.10/USD in 2020 and 2021, from prior forecasts of PHP50.58/USD and PHP51.80/ USD. Key Risks The Covid-19 outbreak poses significant risks to the Philippine economy, particularly if lockdowns are reintroduced countrywide and consumers delay purchases to reduce health risks. This could see the economy recover more modestly in 2021. Philippines stalling reform momentum risks deterring foreign investment at a time when manufacturers are relocating or diversifying supply-chains away from China. The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese or Western investment into the Philippines. A shift away from the West and Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU. Philippines Country Risk Q1 2021fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippines' Struggles With Covid-19 To Hamper Growth Recovery
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Philippine Rates To Remain On Hold Through To Late 2021
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Philippines' Fiscal Policy To Focus On Medium-Term Growth Over Near-Term Boost
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.Philippines Country Risk Q1 2021Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2029
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • South China Sea Dispute: Rising Risks Of Escalation
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: VIETNAM AND THE PHILIPPINES HAVE A HISTORY OF ARMED INCIDENTS WITH CHINA
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: INWARD FDI STOCK SOURCE BY COUNTRY
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS (CONTINUED)
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Larger Contraction Now, But Stronger Recovery Ahead
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top
ÀüÈ­ ¹®ÀÇ
F A Q