라틴아메리카의 통신 시장 : 동향과 예측

※ 본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

라틴아메리카(LATAM)의 통신(Telecoms) 시장에 대해 조사했으며, 지역 전체와 주요 6개국의 모바일·고정 핵심성과지표(KPI) 5개년 예측, 주요 국가의 모바일·고정 서비스 동향과 성장 촉진요인·예측 전제조건 분석, 오퍼레이터 전략과 국가별 토픽 개요, 모바일·고정 오퍼레이터에 대한 주요 제안 등의 정보를 정리하여 전해드립니다.

1. 조사 내용

• 190개 이상 주요 모바일·유선 핵심성과지표(KPI) 5개년 예측 : 주요 6개국
• 시장 동향, 성장 촉진요인, 예측 영향요인 분석
• 오퍼레이터별 전략 개요, 국가별 토픽
• 정리 및 제안 등

2. 조사 대상국

• 아르헨티나
• 브라질
• 칠레
• 콜롬비아
• 멕시코
• 페루

3. 조사 대상 핵심성과지표(KPI) 예

• 접속수
  • 모바일
    • 단말기, 모바일 브로드밴드, 사물인터넷(IoT)
    • 선불, 계약
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • 스마트폰, 비스마트폰
  • 유선
    • 음성, 브로드밴드, IPTV, 다이얼업(dial-up)
    • 내로우밴드 음성, VoBB
    • DSL, FTTH/B, 케이블, BFWA, 5G, 기타
• 매출
  • 모바일
    • 서비스, 리테일
    • 선불, 계약
    • 단말기, 모바일 브로드밴드, 사물인터넷(IoT)
    • 단말기 음성, 메시징, 데이터
  • 유선
    • 서비스, 리테일
    • 음성, 브로드밴드, IPTV, 다이얼업, BNS
    • DSL, FTTH/B, 케이블, BFWA, 기타
• 음성 트래픽
  • 유선 & 모바일
    • 발신시간, MoU
• 가입자당 평균매출(ARPU)
  • 모바일
    • SIM, 단말기
    • 선불, 계약
    • 단말기 음성, 데이터

"Fixed broadband revenue will increase at a CAGR of 6.1% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the rapid adoption of NGA-based and 4G/5G BFWA services."

The telecoms sector in Latin America (LATAM) will grow slowly within the forecast period, driven by mobile data services and increased next-generation access (NGA) adoption. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for six key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and for six key countries

• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries

• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison

• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Table of Contents

• 8.Executive summary and recommendations
• 9.Revenue from mobile handsets, fixed broadband and pay TV will be the main driver of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
• 10.The telecoms retail revenue in Latin America will increase, but at a slower rate than the GDP
• 11.Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G connectivity will increase considerably across the region thanks to strong investments from operators
• 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
• 13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
• 14.Market context: growth in the telecoms sector in Latin America will be limited, despite continuing economic recovery
• 15.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
• 16.Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
• 17.Market overview: the total telecoms service revenue growth will mainly be supported by network investments
• 18.Mobile: prepaid-to-contract migration and increasing data usage will help operators to maintain a stable mobile blended ARPU
• 19.Mobile: mobile penetration will decline further as subscribers continue to abandon multiple prepaid SIMs in favour of one contract connection
• 20.Mobile: 5G services will not be launched in LATAM until 2021
• 21.Fixed: NGA share of connections will increase significantly between 2018 and 2024
• 22.Fixed: both fixed broadband ASPU and the number of fixed broadband connections will increase due to network investments
• 23.Fixed: fixed broadband revenue will increase in Latin America as subscribers switch from DSL to more-expensive cable, fibre and BFWA services
• 24.Specialist business services: dedicated connections revenue, as well as revenue from other business services, will increase during the forecast period
• 25.IoT: revenue from the IoT value chain in LATAM will double between 2018 and 2024, but it will still only account for a small fraction of the telecoms retail revenue
• 26.Pay TV: the market will continue to be dominated by cable and DTH; operators' activities in the OTT market will be limited during the forecast period
• 27.Individual country forecasts
• 28.Argentina: revenue will decline rapidly (excluding inflation) over the forecast period due to the strong negative effect of the economic crisis
• 29.Argentina: the economic instability is slowing down the adoption of new technologies because consumers have less income to spend on upgrades
• 30.Argentina: the Argentinian economy is going through a serious crisis, which is having a strong, negative effect on the telecoms sector
• 31.Argentina: forecast changes
• 32.Brazil: the total telecoms retail revenue will continue to grow, supported by an increase in mobile handset and fixed broadband revenue
• 33.Brazil: 4G/5G will account for over 90% of all mobile connections in 2024, leading to an increase in data usage and the contract share of connections
• 34.Brazil: increased fibre coverage will be the main driver of total telecoms retail revenue growth
• 35.Brazil: forecast changes
• 36.Chile: retail revenue will remain stable throughout the forecast period, mainly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
• 37.Chile: the number of fibre connections will nearly double during the forecast period
• 38.Chile: telecoms service revenue growth will mainly be driven by network investments, both in the mobile and fixed segments
• 39.Chile: forecast changes
• 40.Colombia: fixed broadband revenue will be the main driver of total telecoms retail revenue growth
• 41.Colombia: mobile data traffic per connection will quintuple between 2018 and 2024, driven by a growing 4G/5G share of mobile connections
• 42.Colombia: fixed broadband ASPU will increase due to the fast adoption of NGA
• 43.Colombia: forecast changes
• 44.Mexico: mobile handset revenue is expected to grow due to an increase in the data usage; IoT revenue is expected to grow substantially by 2024
• 45.Mexico: data usage is set to increase rapidly due to growth in the 4G share of connections
• 46.Mexico: fixed broadband revenue will increase, driven by a growing NGA footprint
• 47.Mexico: forecast changes
• 48.Peru: both the fixed and mobile sectors will contribute to revenue growth as the country becomes more digitalized
• 49.Peru: the 4G share of connections will grow quickly in the forecast period, leading to an increase in data usage
• 50.Peru: public and private investments are expected to drive the digitalisation of Peru
• 51.Peru: forecast changes
• 52.Methodology
• 53.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
• 54.Examples of forecast input drivers
• 55.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
• 56.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
• 57.About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 58.About the authors
• 59.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 60.Research from Analysys Mason
• 61.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2018--2024
• Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2018 and 2024
• Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
• Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2018
• Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
• Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Latin America
• Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014--2024
• Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2014--2024
• Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2014--2024
• Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2014--2024
• Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2014--2024
• Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2014--2024
• Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2014--2024
• Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2014--2024
• Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2014--2024
• Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2014--2024
• Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2014--2024
• Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2014--2024
• Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2014--2024
• Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2014--2024
• Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2014--2024
• Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2014--2024
• Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2014--2024
• Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2014--2024
• Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2014--2024
• Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2014--2024
• Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2014--2024
• Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (GB per month), 2014--2024
• Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2014--2024
• Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2014--2024
• Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
• Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores