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중유럽 및 동유럽의 모바일 서비스 동향과 예측(2018-2023년)

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

리서치사 Analysys Mason
발행일 2018년 11월 상품 코드 346137
페이지 정보 영문 11 Slides
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중유럽 및 동유럽의 모바일 서비스 동향과 예측(2018-2023년) Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
발행일 : 2018년 11월 페이지 정보 : 영문 11 Slides

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

중유럽 및 동유럽(CEE)의 모바일 서비스(Mobile Services) 시장에 대해 조사했으며, 세계, 지역 및 국가별 시장 분석과 5개년 예측 등의 정보를 전해드립니다.

1. 주요 요약

2. 세계 동향

  • 서비스 매출은 예측기간 중 계속 성장하여 2022년에 8,630억 달러에 달할 전망

3. 지역 동향

  • 기존 서비스의 감소에도 불구하고, 모바일 매출은 계속 확대
  • 모바일 보급률 : 터키를 제외하고 CEE 지역의 모바일 SIM 보급 수준은 계속 안정
  • 모바일 접속 : 4G/5G 접속은 2G/3G를 대체하지만, 2022년 이전에 네트워크 해체(decommissioning)는 일어나지 않을 것으로 예측
  • 스마트폰 및 LTE : 단말기에서 차지하는 스마트폰의 점유율은 CEE에서 2022년까지 82%에 달할 전망
  • 모바일 브로드밴드 : LTE 인프라의 폭넓은 전개는 모바일 브로드밴드의 단기적인 성장을 지원
  • ARPU : ARPU는 경쟁 가격 압력의 감소 및 보다 고액인 데이터 플랜의 점유율 확대에 의해 안정
  • 세대별 데이터 및 매출 : 4G 기술의 전개는 CEE에서 서비스 매출 증가를 촉진

4. 각국 동향

  • 체코 : 매출은 계속 성장하지만, 2022년 시장은 2012년보다 18% 축소될 전망
  • 폴란드 : 컨텐츠 서비스 및 폭넓은 LTE 커버리지는 MNO의 단말기 데이터 매출 증가를 지원
  • 러시아 : 자국의 모바일 시장 경쟁 격화로 단말기 ARPU의 감소를 초래
  • 터키 : 4G 커버리지를 둘러싼 경쟁 및 높은 모바일 단말기 데이터 서비스 수요는 ARPU의 증가를 촉진

5. 저자 및 Analysys Mason 소개

도표

KSM 17.10.31

"Mobile telecoms revenue will continue its recovery over the next few years, driven primarily by handset data growth."

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually Detailed country commentary
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Mobile revenue will continue to grow during the next few years, driven mainly by revenue growth from handset data
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, and will reach USD867 billion in 2023
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Mobile revenue will continue to increase despite declining traditional services
  • 11. Mobile: the improved LTE-A coverage and an increasing number of mobile contract subscribers will drive mobile ARPU growth
  • 12. Mobile: notable mobile penetration growth is only expected in Turkey, as most of the other countries in the region have already reached saturation
  • 13. Mobile: ARPU will increase in a number of countries in CEE, mainly as a result of increasing migration towards contract and high-value data plans
  • 14. Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU
  • 15. Country-level trends
  • 16. Czech Republic: a wave of competition is expected in the mobile market as the regulator seeks to decrease consumer ASPU
  • 17. Poland: operators' key focus will be on network and coverage upgrades
  • 18. Russia: the total mobile telecoms market will increase by 2023 thanks to the strong demand for online content
  • 19. Turkey: inflation will distort revenue trends but strong operator investments in mobile services will drive underlying revenue growth
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 22. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 23. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the authors
  • 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 26. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, CEE and worldwide, 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), Mobile
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Czeck Republic (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
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