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북미의 통신 시장 : 동향과 예측(2019-2024년)

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

리서치사 Analysys Mason
발행일 2020년 03월 상품 코드 929155
페이지 정보 영문 25 Slides
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북미의 통신 시장 : 동향과 예측(2019-2024년) North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
발행일 : 2020년 03월 페이지 정보 : 영문 25 Slides

2019-2024년간 모바일 데이터 서비스의 매출 성장은 통신사의 주요 매출 성장원이 될 전망입니다.

북미 통신 시장의 주요 동향 개요와 각 부문에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석 등에 대해 다루고 있습니다.

주요 요약과 제안

  • 모바일 및 고정선 데이터에 의한 매출은 향후에도 통신 시장의 주요 성장원
  • 북미의 통신 시장은 거의 성숙해 매출 성장은 다른 경제권보다 완만
  • 커버 지역 : 사업자가 2G와 3G 네트워크를 셧다운하기 때문에 2024년에 4G와 5G가 유일한 모바일 테크놀러지가 될 전망
  • 모바일 및 고정선 시장의 주요 동향, 활성요인, 가정

지역별 예측과 비교

  • 시장 배경 : 향후 3년간 캐나다와 미국의 경제는 더디지만 꾸준히 성장
  • 주요 인수 합병과 신규 참여
  • 북미 시장의 주요 활성요인
  • 시장 개요 : 통신 시장의 전체 매출은 모바일·고정선 모두 데이터 매출 성장에 힘입어 서서히 성장
  • 모바일 : 대응 단말기가 유통되면 5G는 급격한 속도로 확대
  • 모바일 : 침투율은 북미 모바일 분야의 주요 매출 성장원
  • 모바일 : 모바일 분야의 경쟁 부족이 예측기간 중 느리지만 안정적인 성장으로 이어질 전망
  • 고정선 : 브로드밴드 접속에서 케이블의 점유율은 광섬유와 5G FWA의 점유율 확대로 축소되지만, 고정선 브로드밴드에서는 여전히 가장 인기
  • 고정선 : 고정선 브로드밴드의 침투율은 고정선의 대상 지역 확대로 인해 예측기간 중에도 성장
  • 고정선 : 고정선의 전체 매출은 고정선 브로드밴드의 침투율과 고정선 브로드밴드의 ASPU 확대에 의해 성장
  • 전문가용 비지니스 서비스 : 사업 매출은 기타 비지니스 서비스를 제공하는 비사업자의 매출에 의해 활성화
  • IoT : IoT 전체의 밸류체인 매출은 크게 성장하지만, 인터넷 접속 매출은 극히 일부
  • 유료 TV : 북미에서는 케이블 TV 해지가 진행되어 기존의 유료 TV 서비스 매출은 하락

국가별 예측

  • 캐나다 : 전체적인 서비스 매출은 고정선 브로드밴드 시장의 경쟁 부족으로 꾸준히 성장을 지속
  • 캐나다 : 고정선 브로드밴드 접속 수는 사업자에 의한 지방으로의 네트워크 확대에 의해 증가
  • 캐나다 : 주요 사업자에게 대항자가 없어 고정선 브로드밴드의 ASPU는 여전히 높지만, 모바일 ARPU의 성장은 제한적
  • 캐나다 : 예측 변경
  • 미국 : 모바일 침투율 확대에 의해 모바일 분야가 주요 매출 성장원
  • 미국 : 고정선 브로드밴드의 ASPU는 지방 시장의 경쟁 부족에 의해 성장
  • 미국 : T Mobile과 Sprint의 잠재적 합병으로 불확정 요소가 많이 발생해 경쟁 감소로 연결
  • 미국 : 예측 변경

조사 방법

저자와 Analysys Mason 소개

KSM 20.04.14

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, North America, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2018 and 20241
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, North America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, North America (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2014--20241
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, North America, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Canada (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, USA, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 45b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

"The total telecoms revenue in North America is expected to grow by 6.6% between 2019 and 2024."

Growth in mobile data services revenue will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth between 2019 and 2024. In this report, we summarise the main telecoms trends in North America and analyse how several factors will affect the various segments of the telecoms market.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

  Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 8. Revenue from data in both the mobile and the fixed segments will be the main driver of telecoms revenue growth
  • 9. The telecoms market in North America is mostly mature and revenue will grow at a slower pace than the rest of the economy
  • 10. Geographical coverage: 4G and 5G will be the only mobile technologies in use in 2024 because operators will shut down their 2G and 3G networks
  • 11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 12. Regional forecasts and cross country comparison
  • 13. Market context: the economies in Canada and the USA are expected to grow at a slow but steady rate in the next 3 years
  • 14. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 15. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 16. Market overview: the total telecoms revenue is expected to grow slowly, driven by growth in revenue from data in both the fixed and mobile segments
  • 17. Mobile: 5G take up will increase at a significantly faster rate once more 5G compatible handsets become available
  • 18. Mobile: penetration growth will be the main driver of revenue growth in the mobile segment in North America
  • 19. Mobile: the lack of competition in the mobile segment will lead to slow but stable growth in mobile revenue during the forecast period
  • 20. Fixed: the cable share of broadband connections will fall as the fibre and 5G FWA shares increase, but cable will remain the most popular fixed broadband technology
  • 21. Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will grow during the forecast period, mainly due to improved fixed coverage
  • 22. Fixed: the total fixed revenue will grow thanks to increases in both fixed broadband penetration and fixed broadband ASPU
  • 23. Specialist business services: business revenue growth will be driven by revenue from non operators that provide other business services
  • 24. IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue will grow considerably over the forecast period, but connectivity revenue will only account for a small proportion of it
  • 25. Pay TV: cord cutting will continue in North America, and traditional pay TV service revenue will decline
  • 26. Individual country forecasts
  • 27. Canada: the total service revenue will continue to grow steadily due to a lack of competition in the fixed broadband market
  • 28. Canada: the number of fixed broadband connections will continue to rise as operators expand their networks to rural areas
  • 29. Canada: the lack of challengers to the established operators will keep fixed broadband ASPU high, but mobile ARPU growth will be limited
  • 30. Canada: forecast changes
  • 31. USA: the mobile sector will be the largest contributor to revenue growth thanks to an increase in mobile penetration during the forecast period
  • 32. USA: we expect that fixed broadband ASPU will grow during the forecast period, mostly because of the low level of local competition in the market
  • 33. USA: the potential merger between T Mobile and Sprint is creating a lot of uncertainty in the market and may lead to a decline in competition
  • 34. USA: forecast changes
  • 35. Methodology
  • 36. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 37. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 38. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 39. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 40. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 41. About the authors
  • 42. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 43. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 44. Consulting from Analysys Mason
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