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자동차 변속기 현황과 향후 전망 : 과제와 시장 기회

Pathway for Automotive Transmissions - Issues and Opportunities: Current and Near-future Developments in Automotive Transmissions

리서치사 Autelligence
발행일 2018년 10월 상품 코드 304577
페이지 정보 영문 109 Pages
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자동차 변속기 현황과 향후 전망 : 과제와 시장 기회 Pathway for Automotive Transmissions - Issues and Opportunities: Current and Near-future Developments in Automotive Transmissions
발행일 : 2018년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 109 Pages

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

세계의 자동차용 변속기(Automotive Transmissions) 시장에 대해 조사했으며, 향후 방향성과 오피니언 리더의 견해, 배출 규제에 대한 대응과 그린 기술의 개발, 전기화(Electrification)의 영향, OEM 각사의 대응책, 중국 시장 동향, 새로운 변속기 기술, 향후 전망 등의 정보를 전해드립니다.

제1장 서론

  • 자동차 산업 평가 : 변속기의 미래에 관한 합의 유무
  • 주요 과제, 불확정 요소, 동향
  • 오피니언 리더의 견해
  • 산업의 가장 적합한 합의 견해 등

제2장 배출 절감 변속기의 개발

  • 세계의 배출 규제 전망
  • 온난화와 행동 : 청정 기술의 비용
  • 미국의 사례 연구 : 그린 기술의 비용 vs. 이점
  • 줄 수(Joule count) : ICE 에너지 밸런스의 최적화
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제3장 기술 논의 : MT에서 자율주행차 및 커넥티드카용 변속기로

제4장 전기화되는 미래에서 변속기의 역할 재정의

  • 풀 EV 변속기와 효율
  • 독자적인 마이크로 및 마일드 하이브리드 변속기
  • 풀하이브리드 EV 변속기용 솔루션
  • 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제5장 OEM의 향후 동향에 대한 내기

  • 미국 기업 2개사의 협업
    • GM의 변속기 플랜
    • Ford의 변속기 전략
  • BMW : 여러 접근법의 도입
    • DCT의 파인 튜닝
    • 하이퍼포먼스 8G45 AT
  • Toyota : TNGA 플랫폼
  • Honda : 컴팩트 및 하이퍼포밍 10속 트랜스버스 AT
  • Hyundai : Smartstream 8AT
  • Nissan의 가변 압축비 엔진과 Jatco의 CVT8
  • Chrysler DHT
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제6장 중국 시장의 변속기 : 과제와 전망

  • 독자 솔루션에 대한 수요
  • 중국의 NEV 프로그램 변속기 개발에 대한 영향
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제7장 변속기 시장 전망

  • 전기화의 변속기 시장에 대한 영향
  • 세계의 변속기 매출
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제8장 새로운 변속기 기술

  • Ricardo
  • ZF
  • 혁신적 CVT
  • AT, 48V, HEV, PHEV용 모듈형 하이브리드 변속기 컨셉
  • 48v 풀타임 EV와 변속기
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

제9장 2030년 이후의 전망 : 변속기의 향후 20년

  • 전기화의 영향과 변속기 개발의"high road"시나리오
  • "low road"시나리오 : 기술 및 전기화의 잠깐 휴식
  • 요약 : 예측과 불확정 요소 등

부록

KSM 18.10.26

The simultaneous emergence of four megatrends - electrification, automated driving, connectivity, and shared mobility are making it more difficult for manufacturers to forecast trends to guide them in investment and development.

This report examines current trends influencing the design of automotive transmissions for light duty vehicles and offers educated predictions of how these might play out by 2030.

Over the next several years, if not decades, the industry will likely continue to develop a wide variety of transmissions to support both traditional and electric powertrain technologies.

So what transmission development trends should companies focus on to be sure they remain competitive in the rapidly shifting global markets?

Five key strategic questions on the future of automotive transmissions:

  • 1. What is the probability that the emissions and fuel economy regulations projected for 2025 through 2030 will remain as currently envisioned? If they change, in what direction?
  • 2. Will the current trend of downspeeding to optimize the operating range of the ICE continue?
  • 3. How will electrification impact the development of the transmission?
  • 4. Will electrified powertrains demand significantly different development paths for hybrid and full EVs?
  • 5. What is the likelihood that a significant technical disruptor will be introduced in the next few years, significant enough and early enough to change the outcome predicted by the consensus view by 2030, all other factors remaining equal?

What this report offers:

This report explores possible answers to these and other key questions, and attempts to assign probabilities to the outcomes. The purpose of these probabilities is not to attempt to predict the future so much as imagine the possibilities available, and attempt to do so with as much insight as is possible today. The focus of the report is understanding the trends behind current developments and extracting insights to help the reader plan and make sense of the rapidly changing environment for automotive transmission manufacturers and suppliers.

Who buys Autelligence reports?

Currently over 250 companies have corporate or individual subscriptions to reports from Autelligence. Most reports are bought by CEOs, other C-level executives, partners, directors, vice-presidents and country managers at automotive suppliers across marketing, engineering, R&D, and purchasing functions. Subscribers also include OEMs, financial analysts and management consultants.

What the experts say:

Dr Joerg Gindele, Senior Director of Core Engineering, Magna Powertrain
“Multispeed transmissions will still be required, even with the move towards electric vehicles. Non-hybrid combustion engines now have up to ten gears, and in mild and full hybrids it still makes sense to have seven speeds”

Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic, Managing Director of Mikulic Consulting
“By 2030, it's likely that electrified CVTs and AMTs with integrated electric motors will gain market share in the more cost-sensitive volume segments”

Larry Nitz, Executive Director of Global Propulsion Systems, General Motors
“Combustion engines and multi-gear / CVT transmissions will retain significant market share, but by 2030 most will have significant connected and electrified content for regenerative braking, load shifting and EV driving”

Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger President & CEO, FEV Group
“ICE-only drives will still require multispeed transmissions in 2030. Multispeed transmissions will also gain market share in BEVs seeking to improve efficiencies across the operating range”

Carsten Weber, manager of Engine and Powertrain Systems, Ford
“The role of transmissions will change. Instead of being the element that adjusts torque and speed between engine and wheel, they will become intelligent performance distributors that manage energy consumption, emissions and driving behavior”

Oscar Sarmiento, Head of Engineering, Japan, Continental
“Electrification will further push CVT applications in vehicles with large comfort demands for megacities”

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction

  • 1.1. The automotive industry's assessment: Is there consensus on the future of the transmission?
  • 1.2. Key questions uncertainties and trends
  • 1.3. What do the opinion leaders have to say?
    • 1.3.1. Magna's Dr Joerg Gindele on opportunities for multi-speed transmissions
    • 1.3.2. GWM's Gerhard Henning and application-specific growth
    • 1.3.3. Prof. Dr. Leopold Mikulic sees growth in CVTs and AMTs
    • 1.3.4. GM's Larry Nitz and connected transmissions
    • 1.3.5. FEV's Professor Dr.-Ing. Stefan Pischinger on multi-speed transmissions and CVTs
    • 1.3.6. Ford's Carsten Weber on intelligent performance and transmissions
    • 1.3.7. BMW's Peter Quintus on MT and M applications
    • 1.3.8. Porsche's Gerd Bofinger and a transmissions portfolio
    • 1.3.9. Nissan's Toshihiro Hirai hybrid vision
    • 1.3.10. Will any current transmissions disappear by 2030?
  • 1.4. The industry's best-fit consensus view

Chapter 2: Developing transmissions that cut emissions

  • 2.1. What will global emissions regulations look like in 2030?
  • 2.2. Global warming demands action: the cost of cleaner technologies
  • 2.3. A US case study on the cost vs benefit of green technologies
  • 2.4. Making every Joule count: optimising the ICE energy balance
  • 2.5. Chapter 2 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 3: Arguing the technology: From MTs to transmissions for automated and connected cars

  • 3.1. Unlocking the potential of downspeeding with more ratios
  • 3.2. When is enough too much: what is the optimum number of gears?
  • 3.3. Is there life left in the manual transmission?
    • 3.3.1. How a family of transmissions cuts costs
  • 3.4. Automating the manual transmission
  • 3.5. Applying novel e-clutch solutions to automate the MT
  • 3.6. Can the AT beat the MT at the efficiency game?
  • 3.7. Possibility of DCTs challenging the AT market in America?
  • 3.8. CVTs can still improve ICEs' efficiency
    • 3.8.1. The technologies driving modern CVTs
  • 3.9. Designing transmissions for connected and autonomous vehicles
    • 3.9.1. Connectivity and smart shifting
  • 3.10. Chapter 3 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 4: Re-defining the transmission's role in an electrified future

  • 4.1. Full electric vehicle transmissions and efficiency
  • 4.2. Is there a case to be made for unique micro and mild hybrid transmissions?
  • 4.3. Who is doing what? Solutions for full hybrid EV transmissions
  • 4.4. Chapter 4 - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 5: OEMs place their bets on future trends

  • 5.1. Collaboration gives two US companies the best of both worlds heading to 2030
    • 5.1.1. GM's transmission plans
    • 5.1.2. Ford's transmission strategy
  • 5.2. BMW adopts different approaches to efficiency and driver experience
    • 5.2.1. Fine-tuning the DCT
    • 5.2.2. BMW's high performance 8G45. AT
  • 5.3. Toyota's TNGA platform and the future of the company's transmissions
  • 5.4. Honda's compact, high performing 10. speed transverse AT
  • 5.5. Hyundai's Smartstream 8AT focuses on efficiency and fuel economy
  • 5.6. New technologies demand unique solutions: Nissan's variable compression engine and Jatco's CVT8
  • 5.7. What does Chrysler's first DHT reveal about the company's plans for transmissions in an electrified future?
    • 5.7.1. An ICE, two motors and four driving operations define the eFlite DHT
  • 5.8. Chapter 5 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 6: Transmissions for the Chinese market: A perspective on the challenges

  • 6.1. Chinese drivers demand unique solutions
  • 6.2. How will China's NEV program impact transmission development?
  • 6.3. Chapter 6 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 7: What will the transmission market look like in 2030?

  • 7.1. What impact will electrification have on the transmission market in 2030?
  • 7.2. Global transmission sales by the numbers
  • 7.3. Chapter 7 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 8: New transmission technologies

  • 8.1. Ricardo's novel approach to replacing the MT
  • 8.2. ZF's AWD electrified drivetrain refines AMT gearshifts
  • 8.3. Revolutionary CVTs set to make their mark by 2030
    • 8.3.1. Beltless CVT cuts efficiency losses
    • 8.3.2. An efficient CVT for EVs?
  • 8.4. A modular hybrid transmission concept for AT, 48V, HEV and PHEV
    • 8.4.1. Compact longitudinal hybrid concept
  • 8.5. The key to 48-volt full-time EV lies with the transmission
  • 8.6. Chapter 8 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Chapter 9: Looking past 2030: The next 20 years of the transmission

  • 9.1. The impact of electrification and the high road scenario on transmission development
  • 9.2. Low road scenario - technology and electrification take a breather
  • 9.3. Chapter 9 summary - forecasts and uncertainties

Addendum A: Low viscosity universal fluids as a solution for e-mobility applications

  • Transmission fluids already follow the path of least resistance to lower viscosities
  • Can a low viscosity universal transmission fluid dominate the market?

Addendum B: Handy facts about key transmission suppliers

  • Sources

Table of figures

  • Figure 1.1: These shifts in technology dictate the powertrain's evolution
  • Figure 1.2: Breaking down the role of the transmission in future powertrain architectures
  • Figure 1.3: Which transmission will have disappeared from the global market in 15 years?
  • Figure 2.1: Major markets' 2030 CO2 emissions regulations at a glance
  • Figure 2.2: This graph indicates manufacturers could afford the cost of lower CO2 emissions
  • Figure 2.3: A cost vs. benefit curve to guide investment in green technologies
  • Figure 2.4: This gasoline engine energy balance explains the need for more gears
  • Figure 3.1: New technologies demand increased ratio coverage
  • Figure 3.2: Technologically advanced powertrains thrive on more speeds
  • Figure 3.3: AMT functions that would never have been possible without an e-clutch
  • Figure 3.4: Selecting the level of automation is easy with an e-clutch
  • Figure 3.5: Is this EPA view of the US transmission market believable?
  • Figure 3.6: Improved CVTs are quietly increasing market share
  • Figure 4.1: Do OEMs electrification timeline reveal their transmission strategies?
  • Figure 4.2: Efficiency maps prove three is better than a single speed
  • Figure 4.3: IHS forecast DHTs will dominate by 2030
  • Figure 4.4: Should OEMs reconsider DHTs?
  • Figure 5.1: A quick guide to BMW group's transverse transmissions
  • Figure 5.2: BMW's transverse transmission strategy in numbers
  • Figure 5.3: BMW's AGS adaptive transmission control
  • Figure 5.4: Customization of the Getrag 7DCT300 for BMW
  • Figure 5.5: The makings of a high-performance 8-speed AT
  • Figure 5.6: Cross-section shows ingenuity of Toyota's UA80 design
  • Figure 5.7: Schematic of Honda's rationale for the 10AT design
  • Figure 5.8: The ‘trick' that produced a compact 10-speed AT
  • Figure 5.9: Key details of Honda's new 10-speed
  • Figure 5.10: Comparing the 10AT's efficiency to the opposition's 8- and 9-speeds
  • Figure 5.11: How many gears can Honda's 10AT skip shift?
  • Figure 5.12: Breakdown of the losses in an 8-speed AT
  • Figure 5.13: The inner workings of Hyundai's multi-disc lockup clutch and 3-way convertor
  • Figure 5.14: Hyundai's four steps to an efficient AT
  • Figure 5.15: Hyundai's shift strategy
  • Figure 5.16: Accurate modelling highlights transmission errors and cuts NVH
  • Figure 5.17: Hyundai's transmission lineup : implications for the future
  • Figure 5.18: Designing a novel CVT to compliment a VCR engine
  • Figure 5.19: Jatco's solution to the standing-start acceleration challenge
  • Figure 5.20: These curves explain why lockup control holds the secret to smooth overtaking maneuvers
  • Figure 5.21: Compact, yet complex: Chrysler's compact dual motor DHT
  • Figure 5.22: Flexible electric-only power flow using single or dual motor-drive
  • Figure 5.23: Reverse is electric-only in the Pacifica
  • Figure 5.24: The power flow shows the hybrid-drive with one motor and the ICE
  • Figure 5.25: Interesting power flow facilitates ICE stop-start operation
  • Figure 5.26: A detailed look at the one way clutch, key to controlling the power flow
  • Figure 6.1: The reasons Chinese consumers are not happy with their transmissions
  • Figure 6.2: In an uncertain Chinese market a flexible 8 Mode DHT could be a solution
  • Figure 7.1: This is why a homogenous consensus view is difficult: A map showing regional preferences
  • Figure 7.2: Global Electrification Trends: Time to rethink the EV market?
  • Figure 7.3: Technology determines the difference between the high and the low road in plugin sales in 2030
  • Figure 7.4: The winners and losers in global transmission sales
  • Figure 8.1: The dual transmission power-flow
  • Figure 8.2: Schematic of the dual transmission in action
  • Figure 8.3: Torque output versus shift times explains the smooth gear changes
  • Figure 8.4: A variator design that eliminates the belt-drive
  • Figure 8.5: From 75 to 95 percent - the impact of speed and load on electric motor efficiency
  • Figure 8.6: Varibox's RADIALcvt design
  • Figure 8.7: A modular transmission design for all occasions
  • Figure 8.8: In this transmission simply adding modules creates unique solutions
  • Figure 8.9: Range of tractive force across modes
  • Figure 8.10: Modular transmission potential cost-savings
  • Figure 8.11: Future Hybrid-inspired longitudinal transmission
  • Figure 8.12: Novel transmission for a 48V fulltime EV
  • Figure 9.1: What does the picture look like after 2030
  • Figure A1: The lifeblood of the modern transmission: current requirements
  • Figure A2: Will a universal fluid ever provide acceptable friction control?
  • Figure A3: The case for novel universal electrified transmission fluids
  • Figure A4: Conductivity curves for conventional fluids and electrified transmission

Table of tables

  • Table 2.1: Summary of key emissions questions with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 3.1: The Indian market fuels the growing list of AMT equipped vehicles
  • Table 3.2: Summary of key questions for transmission-type market shares with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 4.1: Summary of key questions regarding the impact of electrification with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 5.1: Smart collaboration covers everything from the Camaro ZL1 to the F150
  • Table 5.2: A sign of the times: 75% of GM's transmissions will have more than 9 speeds by 2021
  • Table 5.3: Specifications of Honda 10-speed
  • Table 5.4: Hyundai's specifications demonstrate the flexible design
  • Table 5.5: Summary of key questions regarding current-trend disruptors with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 6.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties in the Chinese transmission market with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 7.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties of the key market drivers with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 8.1: Component ‘add and delete' costs show promise for the dual transmission
  • Table 8.2: Comparisons of number of common parts
  • Table 8.3: Flexibility and performance across modular variants
  • Table 8.4: Shift elements for eight forward driving PH modes
  • Table 8.5: Specifications of a multi-speed 48V EV powertrain
  • Table 8.6: Summarized forecast and questions around future transmission technologies with probabilities of occurring
  • Table 9.1: Summary of key questions regarding uncertainties of key market drivers post 2030 with probabilities of occurring
  • Table A1: Arguments for and against universal and dedicated fluids
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