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국가위험도 리포트 : 싱가포르

Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 10월 상품 코드 177803
페이지 정보 영문 71 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,497,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 싱가포르 Singapore Country Risk Report Q1 2020
발행일 : 2019년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 71 Pages

Key View

싱가포르의 '4세대'라고 불리는 지도자들은 더 중대한 지도적 역할을 수행할 조짐을 보이고 있으며, 도시 국가의 지속적인 지도력 승계 과정에 잘 적응하고 있습니다. 야당의 목소리가 더 강력해지고 있는 가운데 차세대 지도자는 전임자보다 많은 어려움에 직면할 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 3세대 지도자들이 현재 정치 분야에서 사라지지 않을 것이므로 싱가포르의 전반적인 정치 전망은 안정세를 유지할 것으로 보입니다. 외교 정책 관점에서 싱가포르와 말레이시아간의 관계가 신구 과제 모두에서 국경간 긴장이 다시 시작되었기 때문에 양국간 관계는 냉랭함을 유지할 것으로 예측됩니다. 싱가포르 경제는 지속적인 무역분쟁과 국내 건설 산업의 성장 둔화, 개인 소비 침체 등에 의해 향후 냉각될 것으로 보입니다. 정부는 재정적으로 신중한 자세를 보이고 있으며, 고령화나 구조적 변화에 의한 지출 증가에 대응하기 위해 향후 몇 년간 소비세 증수를 계획하고 있습니다.

주요 위험

싱가포르의 튼튼한 기반에도 불구하고 중국 경제의 급속한 둔화에 기인한 외수 부진과 국내 경제 구조 조정이 향후 몇 분기에 걸쳐 기술적인 불황을 야기할 수 있습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 예측 변화
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 세계적인 역풍이 높아짐에 따라 2019년 싱가포르의 성장은 한층 더 둔화
  • GDP 전망 : 지출별
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 싱가포르 통화 당국에 의해 강화되는 대외적인 약한 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 싱가포르는 대외위험을 경감하기 위해서 재정 정책을 완화
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 무역 불확실성에도 불구하고 강력한 거시적 펀더멘탈이 싱가포르 달러를 지원
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 싱가포르의 경제
  • 2028년까지 꾸준한 성장 궤도
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 해역과 공역을 둘러싼 분쟁에 의해 악화되는 싱가포르와 말레이시아 양국간 관계
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 향후 10년간 정치적 자유화가 더뎌질 전망
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 교통망
  • 세계의 거시적 동향
  • 성장 감속 위험
  • 색인
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

Executive summary:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and maintained our 2020 growth forecast at 1.7%. The manufacturing sector will continue to under- perform the rest of the economy due to the likely persistence of external headwinds stemming from elevated US-China trade barriers. Investment and services are likely to benefit from policy support, low base effects and to some extent, the unrest in Hong Kong, providing the basis for a slight growth recovery in 2020.

We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep its dovish stance in the foreseeable future and to ease policy further in 2020. Economic growth is likely to remain slow in 2020, due to stiff headwinds facing the exporting sector, which will encourage the central bank to guide the Singapore dollar weaker to provide support to the economy. We also expect benign inflation over the coming months due to a softer oil price and economic outlook, underpinning MAS's easing stance.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously. The chief reason for these revisions is the negative impact of the slowing economy on revenues. The government is also likely to carry out fiscal stimulus over the coming quarters to support the economy, which would see a larger increase in expenditure than in better years. Plans for further revenue expansion, including a GST hike, signal the government's continued commitment to fiscal responsibility, while ample fiscal reserves place it in a strong position to fiscally stimulate the economy.

We expect the slowing economy to place downside pressure on the Singapore dollar through 2020. The Singapore dollar is on track to meet our 2019 average forecast of SGD1.3650/USD, and we therefore maintain it. However, we have revised our 2020 average forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously to reflect the external challenges faced by the island-nation that should keep the Monetary Authority of Singapore on an easing path. 2021 presents better prospects for a more lasting and comprehensive resolution to the US-China trade war in our view, which bodes well for the economy and, therefore, the Singapore dollar. We thus maintain our average forecast at SGD1.3600/USD in 2021.

We now expect the next general election to be called in H120, following the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee in September, with past occurrences having preceded elections by a few months. We see little chance of the ruling People's Action Party losing power, but winning a high vote share remains vital to establishing the credibility and legitimacy of the incoming fourth generation of leaders. Key figures of the Workers' Party have recently lost a civil lawsuit concerning their mismanagement of public monies, which is likely to dampen their prospects at the coming polls. The opposition as a whole is likely to remain weak and fragmented and is unlikely to mount a credible challenge of the kind put up by the Pakatan Harapan coalition marshalled by Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia in 2018.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 0.5% in 2019, down from 0.9% previously.

We now expect the primary budget deficit to come in at 1.2% and 2.2% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, respectively, widening from 1.1% and 1.2% previously.

We have revised our 2020 average currency forecast to SGD1.3750/USD from SGD1.3500/USD previously.

Key Risks:

The risk of a technical recession has risen in Singapore after two quarters of sluggish economic growth and which could be precipitated by a more pronounced

Chinese economic slowdown amid the US-China trade war.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Technical Recession Unlikely, Slight Recovery In 2020
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
    • TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Easing To Continue Throughout 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Wider Deficits As Singapore Poised For Fiscal Stimulus
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • The Singaporean Economy To 2028
  • Currency Forecast
  • Singapore Dollar To Weaken Further In 2020 Amid Economic Slowdown
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Singapore Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • Solid Growth Trajectory To 2028
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Likely H120 Elections To See PAP Remain Singapore Government
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONE AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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