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국가위험도 리포트 : 베트남

Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 10월 상품 코드 177811
페이지 정보 영문 71 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,497,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 베트남 Vietnam Country Risk Report Q1 2020
발행일 : 2019년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 71 Pages

베트남 경제는 2018년 7.1% 성장했지만, 시장 개방성과 외국인 투자 의존도가 높아지면서 베트남이 무역보호주의 고조와 세계적인 경제 성장 둔화로부터 피하지 못하고 있음을 시사하고 있습니다. 제조업은 여전히 베트남의 주요 경제 성장 동력이 될 것으로 보입니다. 2019년에는 베트남의 실질 GDP 성장률이 6.5%까지 하락할 전망이지만, 지역 전체에서는 가장 빠르게 성장하는 경제국가 중 하나가 될 것입니다. 베트남 국가 은행(SBV)은 2019년 새로운 통화 정책 강화를 계획하고 있습니다. 베트남 통화는 강력한 외국인 직접 투자 유입, 건전한 경상수지 흑자, 중앙은행의 활발한 개입으로 당분간 금융 시장은 안정적으로 유지될 전망입니다. 그러나 높은 실질실효환율과 높은 인플레이션에 의해 달러에 비해 점차 약화될 것으로 예측됩니다. 외교적으로 베트남은 러시아와의 경제적/군사적 협력을 강화할 것으로 예측됩니다. 러시아 경제는 서방국가의 경제 제재에 의한 타격을 받고 있으며, 러시아는 베트남, 동남아시아로의 수출 다양화를 도모하고 있습니다.

베트남의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 예측 변경사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 성장은 둔화할 가능성이 있지만, 베트남은 지역 우위성을 유지
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 국가 은행은 2019년 거시경제의 안정을 우선
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 2019년 베트남의 재정 적자가 증가할 가능성이 높다
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 베트남 통화의 단기적 안정
  • 10년간 예측
  • 2028년까지 베트남의 경제
  • 질적 성장에 새로운 초점
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 베트남과 러시아 양국간 관계의 새로운 강화
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 지속 불가능한 권력 독점
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 교통망
  • 세계의 거시적 동향
  • 성장 감속 위험
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

Executive summary:

We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.9% in 2019, from 6.5% previously. Real GDP growth accelerated to 7.3% y-o-y in Q319, from 6.6% y-o-y in Q219, driven primarily by stronger growth from the manufacturing sector. The influx of companies from China as a result of the US-China trade war appears to be putting increasing stress on infrastructure and labour in Vietnam, and we believe that these structural challenges may cap growth over the short term. While we expect manufacturing growth to top out over the near term, we believe that headline growth is likely to be supported by a strengthening of the growth in construction and service sectors.

The State Bank of Vietnam announced a surprise 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 13, which would take its refinancing and discount rates to 6.00% and 4.00%, from 6.25% and 4.25% previously, effective September 16. We expect the central bank to remain on hold over the coming months to observe the impact of its rate cut on the economy before making further adjustments to its monetary policy. While the rate cut would likely provide some support to growth, we do not expect it to be substantial given the infrastructure bottlenecks in the country restricting economic activity growth. We are revising our forecast for inflation to average 3.7% in 2020, from 3.3% previously, on the back of this rate cut and a rebound in food inflation as a result of the African swine fever, which now affects all provinces, and a rise in housing materials inflation.

We have revised our forecast for Vietnam's fiscal deficit (including principal repayments) to come in at 6.6% of GDP in 2019 and 2020, from 5.7% and 5.8% previously. Falling Vietnamese government bond yields in line with the ongoing global decline in yields would slow the growth in interest liabilities. However, we expect this to be more than offset by higher borrowing as the government seeks to accelerate the progress of key infrastructure projects in a bid to ease the congestion in major cities as a result of the influx of companies relocating their operations to Vietnam amid the US-China trade war. We continue to expect the Vietnamese dong to remain broadly stable against the greenback over the near term, supported by robust FDI inflows, US dollar purchases by businesses, and a healthy foreign reserves position. Over the longer term, we maintain our view for the dong to remain on a gradual deprecia- tory path against the US dollar, due to its overvaluation and Vietnam's higher inflation in relation to the US. We maintain our forecasts for the unit to average VND23,300/USD in 2019, VND23,475/USD in 2020 and VND23,650/USD in 2021.

The US' rising trade deficit with Vietnam, exacerbated by the ongoing trade war between the US and several major global exporters, increases the risk of Viet- namese exports coming under punitive tariffs from the US. However, given Washington's view that an unchecked China poses a major security threat, we believe that the US' need to maintain strong diplomatic relations with Vietnam to balance growing Chinese influence in the region could play in Vietnam's favour with regard to the continuation of cordial trade relations with the US.

Key Risks:

The potential for renewed maritime dispute with China poses downside risks to Vietnam's otherwise stable short-term political outlook. Should the Trump administration introduce fresh tariffs on US imports of Vietnamese goods, this would pose a salient risk to Vietnam's export sector, and consequently our economic growth forecast, given the sector's strong orientation to the US economy. Economic policy slippages could dent investor confidence, and result in a slowdown in FDI inflows and manufacturing growth.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Strong Growth In Vietnam, But Bottleneck Risks Rising
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • State Bank Of Vietnam To Hold Monetary Policy After Surprise Rate Cut
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Vietnam's Fiscal Deficit To Rise Despite Falling Interest Rates
    • TABLE: THE CHOICE DESTINATION FOR RELOCATION
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Stable Outlook For The Vietnamese Dong
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Vietnam Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Vietnamese Economy To 2028
  • A New Focus On Quality Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • What Is The Likelihood Of Vietnam Coming Under The US' Tariffs?
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Key Political Challenges Over The Coming Decade
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: VIETNAM - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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