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국가위험도 리포트 : 말레이시아

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행정보 연간구독 상품 코드 203083
페이지 정보 영문 69 Pages
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국가위험도 리포트 : 말레이시아 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q2 2020
발행정보 : 페이지 정보 : 영문 69 Pages

말레이시아의 2018년 실질 GDP 성장률은 5.1%에서 4.6%로, 2019년 성장률은 4.5%에서 4.2%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 2018년 수정사항에는 예상을 밑도는 2018년 3사분기 결과와 4사분기의 성장이 둔화될 것이라는 전망이 반영되었습니다. 개인소비를 제외한 GDP의 거의 모든 지출 항목에 대한 우려가 2019년 말레이시아의 성장에 악영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다. 2018년 하반기의 부진한 실적과 길어지는 정치적 불확실성을 반영하여 2019년 말레이시아 통화 평균 예상치를 1USD당 4.20링깃에서 4.25링깃으로 수정했습니다.

말레이시아의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 예측 변경사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 말레이시아의 성장은 한층 더 감속
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 말레이시아 국립은행(BNM)은 2019년 성장 둔화와 인플레이션에 직면
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 말레이시아의 2019년 예산 : 석유 수입 의존은 재정 건전성에 위험을 초래
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 장기간의 정치적 불확실성을 배경으로 2020년까지 말레이시아 통화 링깃이 하락
  • 10년간 예측
  • 2028년까지 말레이시아의 경제
  • 말레이시아의 실질 GDP 성장률은 4.4%로 둔화
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 안와르의 인기를 억제하는 말레이시아 희망동맹(PH)
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 말레이시아의 선거 정책은 불확실
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 불안정성이 성장 감속요인
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

Our real GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain at 4.6% and 4.5% respectively. Private consumption is likely to slow slightly in 2020 due to the government's

fiscal rationalisation efforts but be supported by favourable base effects in 2019. Exports are likely to be the main drag on the economy in 2020, but this effect

should be mitigated somewhat by falling imports. Investment is likely to bottom out in 2020 amid government policies to encourage foreign investment and

to reduce housing oversupply.

We expect Malaysia's budget balance to come in at -3.4% and -3.3% in 2019 and 2020, improving from -3.7% in 2018. Our forecasts reflect our revised view that

the government's plan to consolidate public finances is credible, reinforced by Budget 2020, which while lacking in significant revenue expansion measures,

features restrained expenditure growth. Policies announced in the Budget are a mixed bag in our view. Positive measures include reducing fuel subsidies and

making them targeted, whereas cash incentives to hire local workers will introduce further distortions in the economy.

Our 2020 view remains for a 25bps to the Overnight Policy Rate to 2.75%, following the central bank's decision to hold at 3.00% at its final 2019 Monetary Policy

Committee meeting on November 5. Slowing growth as a result of external headwinds, benign inflation on a soft oil price outlook, as well as a widening policy

rate advantage against the US supply the motivation and space for a 25bps cut in 2020.

We maintain our average forecast for 2020 and 2021 at MYR4.25/USD and MYR4.20/USD respectively. Domestic political risks remains a key downside factor

to our forecasts, while we expect the US-China trade conflict to remain in a cycle of de-escalation and re-escalation, despite a 'Phase-One' looking set to be

reached, which is likely to weigh on the unit. We expect stronger investment and a less volatile US-China trade relationship in 2021 to see the ringgit stabilise

and even appreciate slightly.

Uncertainty surrounding the timeline for Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to hand over the premiership to PKR President Anwar Ibrahim is likely to remain a

key source of discord within the ruling PH coalition. A continued lack of coordination in public statements regarding the matter between Anwar and Mahathir

is liable to result in escalating public spats between constituent parties of the coalition, making it more fragile and jeopardising its support. The UMNO-PAS

alliance, formalised on September 14, is likely to see race and religious issues play a bigger part in politics over the coming quarters and presents downside risk

to social stability and reform.

Major Forecast Changes

There were no major forecast changes this quarter.

Key Risks

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid

unwind of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse

in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Maintaining Weaker Forecast For 2020 Malaysian Growth
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Malaysia: Widening Policy Rate Advantage Bolsters 2020 Rate Cut View
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Malaysia Budget 2020: Progress In Consolidation, Risks Remain
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE & REVENUE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken In 2020, Stabilise In 2021
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Malaysian Economy To 2029
  • Malaysia's Long Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Discord In Malaysian Government And Racial Politicking To Intensify
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Malaysian Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Conflict Risk
    • TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
    • TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
    • TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
    • TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISKS
  • Transport Network
    • TABLE: ROAD RISKS
    • TABLE: RAIL RISKS
    • TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
    • TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: MALAYSIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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