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국가위험도 리포트 : 말레이시아

Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 10월 상품 코드 203083
페이지 정보 영문 79 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,496,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 말레이시아 Malaysia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
발행일 : 2019년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 79 Pages

말레이시아의 2018년 실질 GDP 성장률은 5.1%에서 4.6%로, 2019년 성장률은 4.5%에서 4.2%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 2018년 수정사항에는 예상을 밑도는 2018년 3사분기 결과와 4사분기의 성장이 둔화될 것이라는 전망이 반영되었습니다. 개인소비를 제외한 GDP의 거의 모든 지출 항목에 대한 우려가 2019년 말레이시아의 성장에 악영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다. 2018년 하반기의 부진한 실적과 길어지는 정치적 불확실성을 반영하여 2019년 말레이시아 통화 평균 예상치를 1USD당 4.20링깃에서 4.25링깃으로 수정했습니다.

말레이시아의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 예측 변경사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 말레이시아의 성장은 한층 더 감속
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 말레이시아 국립은행(BNM)은 2019년 성장 둔화와 인플레이션에 직면
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 말레이시아의 2019년 예산 : 석유 수입 의존은 재정 건전성에 위험을 초래
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 장기간의 정치적 불확실성을 배경으로 2020년까지 말레이시아 통화 링깃이 하락
  • 10년간 예측
  • 2028년까지 말레이시아의 경제
  • 말레이시아의 실질 GDP 성장률은 4.4%로 둔화
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 안와르의 인기를 억제하는 말레이시아 희망동맹(PH)
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 말레이시아의 선거 정책은 불확실
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 불안정성이 성장 감속요인
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

Key View:

We are revising our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously. The revision reflects the stronger-than-expected average growth rate of 4.7% y-o-y in H119, as well as our view for private consumption to remain strong and for the deceleration in investment growth to bottom out. However, we expect net exports to drag on overall growth over the second half of the year, with exports likely to remain anaemic and imports likely to pick up along with investment. Malaysia's current account balance is likely to remain under strong external pressure from slowing global growth, which has been exacerbated by elevated tariffs between the US and China. However, we expect the goods balance to be supported by declining imports over the coming months, with the exchange rate acting as a natural adjustment mechanism. This should see the current account remain in surplus over the coming quarters. While Malaysia is still vulnerable to capital outflows during periods of risk-off sentiment, this vulnerability has been diminished by an improving liabilities composition in its international investment position. Our rate forecast for 2019 remains at 3.00% for 2019 and is now 2.75% for 2020 (revised down from 3.25% previously). The effect of growth headwinds from higher US-China tariffs should feed through in 2020 and slow growth, providing a motive for rate cuts. Inflation is likely to remain subdued in 2020 on account of lower crude oil prices and Malaysia's relative insulation from the African swine fever pandemic.

We maintain our average ringgit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, due to continued uncertainties from the US- China Trade War. Our view for sustained weakening in 2020 is based on our expectations of a US-China trade deal not being reached before the presidential elections in November 2020. Risks to our forecasts are weighted to the upside, due to the potential for a trade deal and tariff relief before November 2020, as well as geopolitical risks in the Middle East pushing up crude oil prices.

We at Fitch Solutions expect the sex scandal allegedly involving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali to remain a key source of disquiet for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition. This scandal, as well as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's unilateral appointment of Latheefa Koya as Malaysia's anti-corruption chief, will likely intensify the rivalry between supporters of Anwar Ibrahim and those of Azmin, especially within the coalition's largest party, Parti Keadilan Rakyat. While our core scenario is still for Anwar to succeed Mahathir, we expect the situation to worsen in the absence of more concrete signals that the succession plan is intact and will be adhered to.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously.

Key Risks:

Malaysia's economy is relatively well diversified and not particularly at risk from external shocks. The largest threat to the Malaysian economy comes from a rapid unwinding of the household credit boom that has taken place over the past few years since the global financial crisis. This has the potential to result in a collapse in domestic demand amid declining property prices. This is not our core view, however, as debt service ratios remain manageable at current levels.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Revising Growth Upwards On Brightening Investment Outlook
    • We are revising our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 4.6%, from 4.2% previously

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

External Trade And Investment Outlook

  • Current Account To Remain In Surplus Amid Trade War
    • Malaysia's current account balance is likely to remain under strong external pressure from slowing global growth, which has been exacerbated by elevated tariffs between the US and China

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
  • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Negara Malaysia To Cut Rates In 2020
    • Our rate forecast for 2019 remains at 3.00% for 2019 and is now 2.75% for 2020 (revised down from 3.25% previously)

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE CATEGORIES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • Malaysian Ringgit To Weaken Into 2020 Amid Trade War
    • We maintain our average ringgit forecasts for 2019 and 2020 at MYR4.15/USD and MYR4.25/USD, respectively, due to continued uncertainties from the US-China Trade War
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Malaysian Economy To 2028

  • Long-Term Real GDP Growth To Slow To 4.4%
    • We forecast Malaysian real GDP to grow by an average rate of 4.4% over the next decade, slowing from the 4.7% (which was dragged by the 1.5% contraction during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009) seen over the past decade. This largely reflects lower growth in the working age population and productivity. The lofty level of household debt, and uncertainty regarding the fiscal trajectory present further risks, while continued ASEAN economic integration affords opportunities
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Continued Tussle Over Succession To Mar Politics
    • We at Fitch Solutions expect the sex scandal allegedly involving Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali to remain a key source of disquiet for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Electoral Politics To Remain Uncertain
    • The landmark victory of the Pakatan Harapan coalition in the 2018 General Elections has caused a seismic shift in the political landscape, with the once-dominant United Malays National Organisation potentially languishing in opposition for several election cycles and the political parties in East Malaysia likely to constitute a new force in electoral politics. However, we do not expect a significant change in foreign policy with regard to China and the US

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISK
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
  • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
  • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: MALAYSIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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