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국가위험도 리포트 : 태국

Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 10월 상품 코드 203091
페이지 정보 영문 71 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,497,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 태국 Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2020
발행일 : 2019년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 71 Pages

미국과 중국간의 지속적인 무역 긴장과 투자 전망 악화에 의해 2019년 태국의 실질 DGP는 진정될 것으로 예측됩니다. 사회적 불안정으로 인해 2019년 선거까지 몇 가지 위험이 있지만 헌법은 선거 결과에 관계없이 정치적인 지속성을 유지할 필요가 있습니다. 12월 19일에 개최된 통화 정책 회의에서 정책 금리를 1.75%로 25포인트 인상한다는 결정에 따라 2019년 태국 은행 금리는 동결될 전망입니다. 경제 성장 둔화, 목표를 밑도는 인플레이션, 금융 안정성에 대한 우려 등으로 인해 2019년까지 금융 정책은 변하지 않을 전망입니다.

태국의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 예측 변경사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWO 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 2018년 3사분기의 GDP는 2019년 외부 역풍을 예고
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 대외무역 투자 전망
  • 태국의 견고한 외부 재정은 바트를 지원
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 태국 은행의 2018년 금리 인상에 대한 후속 조치는 없음
  • 금융 정책
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 기반이 강고해짐에 따라 태국 바트화는 점차 강세
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research에 의해 발표된 것이며, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다.리포트에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research 및 독립한 정보 출처로부터 봐 얻을 수 있던 것입니다.Fitch Ratings 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 태국의 경제
  • 정치적 불확실성과 주요 성장 장벽
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 총선거가 지연되면서 태국의 정치적 혼란이 가속화
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 정치적 세력을 유지하는 군
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 세계적인 성장 감속 위험
  • 색인
LSH 19.04.24

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Executive Summary:

We believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds it has met during 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity. External challenges are set to persist, widening net exports' drag on headline growth, and we expect a further moderation of household demand, given high indebtedness and weaker job growth prospects. Therefore, growth will be highly dependent on the effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus, with risks of delays to the former and insufficient impact from the latter. We now forecast growth in 2020 to rebound to 3.0%, from a forecast 2.8% in 2019, having previously expected a stronger pickup in growth to 3.5%.

We believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters. We have maintained our forecast for the key policy rate to be kept on hold at 1.50% through 2019, but now forecast a further cut in 2020 to 1.25%. The key reason for the BoT's cautious ap- proach are policy constraints that we do not foresee abating in the coming quarters; namely high household indebtedness, slowing economic growth, Thai baht strength and ongoing trade negotiations with the US.

Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters. The fiscal packages will not pose a threat to Thailand's fiscal position, which remains well managed under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. However, we note that the boost to the economy may be less than intended, given weak domestic confidence and longer-term structural issues. We expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe-haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the BoT. In 2020 we believe that the baht will test the resistance level set in 2013, as risk aversion rises and gold prices - which the baht tracks strongly - rise further. However, US dollar strength and some easing by the BoT in 2020 will curb appreciatory pressures, preventing a significant break below the 2013 resistance level.

We continue to highlight the risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties. The potential for the government to lose its majority remains elevated and policymaking could stall under rising disunity within the coalition. That said, we do not expect a return to the instability of previous years, with the military supporting the incumbent government and prime minister. Given that we had already factored in risks to Thailand's policymaking in our Short- Term Political Risk Score of 70.4 out of 100, we maintain our score for now, with risks tilted to the downside.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 16 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Stimulus Impact Key To Thailand's 2020 Growth Rebound
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that Thailand's economy in 2020 will continue to face the same headwinds as in 2019, curbing the potential for a strong rebound in activity

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017

Monetary Policy

  • Bank Of Thailand To Continue Facing Policy Challenges
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will take a cautious approach to further monetary easing over the coming quarters

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • Fiscal Packages To Target Short- And Long-Term Growth Boost
    • Thailand's fiscal packages will target boosting domestic consumption and investment as well as encouraging foreign direct investment over the coming quarters

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • THB: Modest Appreciation Ahead For The Thai Baht
    • At Fitch Solutions, we expect the Thai baht to continue to see modest appreciation over the coming quarters, owing to its safe haven status that protects the currency in times of risk aversion and the cautious approach to easing by the Bank of Thailand
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Thai Economy To 2028

  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • Ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand's long-term economic growth trajectory. We forecast real GDP growth to average 2.9% annually between 2019 and 2028, making it a regional growth laggard over the coming years
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • Policymaking At Risk From Slim Lower House Majority
    • At Fitch Solutions we continue to highlight risks to policymaking under the fragmented coalition of governing parties
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • Uncertainty Ahead, Despite Tight Military Grip
    • Thailand will continue to experience political uncertainty over the coming decade, posing a risk to the existing political order, despite the increasingly tight grip of the military government. The most likely scenario is a dysfunctional democracy with unstable governments, with the military playing a strong role. At worst, rising political violence could push the country towards civil conflict, but the probability has declined since the 2014 coup

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: THAILAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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