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국가위험도 리포트 : 태국

Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 08월 상품 코드 203091
페이지 정보 영문 63 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,502,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 태국 Thailand Country Risk Report Q4 2019
발행일 : 2019년 08월 페이지 정보 : 영문 63 Pages

미국과 중국간의 지속적인 무역 긴장과 투자 전망 악화에 의해 2019년 태국의 실질 DGP는 진정될 것으로 예측됩니다. 사회적 불안정으로 인해 2019년 선거까지 몇 가지 위험이 있지만 헌법은 선거 결과에 관계없이 정치적인 지속성을 유지할 필요가 있습니다. 12월 19일에 개최된 통화 정책 회의에서 정책 금리를 1.75%로 25포인트 인상한다는 결정에 따라 2019년 태국 은행 금리는 동결될 전망입니다. 경제 성장 둔화, 목표를 밑도는 인플레이션, 금융 안정성에 대한 우려 등으로 인해 2019년까지 금융 정책은 변하지 않을 전망입니다.

태국의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 예측 변경사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWO 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 2018년 3사분기의 GDP는 2019년 외부 역풍을 예고
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 대외무역 투자 전망
  • 태국의 견고한 외부 재정은 바트를 지원
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 태국 은행의 2018년 금리 인상에 대한 후속 조치는 없음
  • 금융 정책
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 기반이 강고해짐에 따라 태국 바트화는 점차 강세
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research에 의해 발표된 것이며, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다.리포트에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research 및 독립한 정보 출처로부터 봐 얻을 수 있던 것입니다.Fitch Ratings 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 태국의 경제
  • 정치적 불확실성과 주요 성장 장벽
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 총선거가 지연되면서 태국의 정치적 혼란이 가속화
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 정치적 세력을 유지하는 군
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 세계적인 성장 감속 위험
  • 색인
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

At Fitch Solutions, we are revising down our 2019 real GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously. Re-escalating US-China trade tensions and high inventory stock are the main downside factors likely to weigh on growth over the coming quarters. We expect the slowdown to be cushioned by favourable base effects and monetary easing, while the formation of a new government over the coming weeks will likely see supportive fiscal policies being adopted. A significant delay to government formation and further escalation in US-China trade tensions are the main downside risks to our forecast.

We still expect the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy interest rate by 25bps by the end of 2019. The central bank's tone remains dovish, and is now further worried by the impact of what it deems as strong currency appreciation on the external sector. Our view remains supported by two key factors; slowing growth prospects and inflation which is likely to underperform the central bank's mid-point target of 2.5%. The long delay in government formation is likely to lead to a delay in passing the next fiscal budget, worsening the situation.

Thailand's new government is gearing up to implement the populist promises in its manifesto, including income tax cuts and the extension of subsidies for public transport, fuels, and necessities. However, with specified details yet to be finalised at the time of writing, we at Fitch Solutions maintain our fiscal deficit forecast for 2019 at 1.9% of GDP and that for 2020 at 1.8% of GDP. We believe that farmers, in particular, may require yet more subsidies amid headwinds from drought and a strong baht.

We maintain our 2019 average forecast for the baht at THB32.00/USD, expecting the BoT to limit baht strength over the coming months to shore up the country's external sector. We also maintain our 2020 average forecast for the unit, which stands at THB31.25/USD, with the current account and more stable political environment likely to prove constructive for the unit over the coming quarters. However, uncertainty regarding the ability of the new government to maintain unity and govern effectively remains a key downside risk.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised our real GDP growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5% previously.
  • We have revised our policy interest rate for 2019 to 1.75% from 1.50% previously.

Key Risks:

The new government of Thailand is a coalition government consisting of 19 parties. The unity of the government will be a challenge to maintain, and major issues such as the upcoming bid by the Democrat Party to revise the 2017 Constitution, could result in paralysis or even dissolution of the government. Thailand's tourism boom has been largely driven by rapid growth in mainland Chinese arrivals, which could slow sharply should the Chinese economy undergo a slowdown.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Growth Revised Down On Re-Escalating Trade Tensions
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Resurgent Populism A Downside Risk To Public Finances
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Thai Baht Strength Unlikely To Last Amid Global Risks
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • Thailand Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Thai Economy To 2028
  • Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Thailand's New Government: Disunity Looms Large, But Low Coup Risk
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
    • TABLE: KEY NCPO MEMBERS RETAIN THEIR PORTFOLIOS
    • TABLE: OTHER MINISTERIAL APPOINTEES
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORES
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: THAILAND - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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