We have raised our average iron ore price forecast for 2019 from USD60/tonne to USD75/tonne as rocky sentiments following the Brumadinho disaster in Brazil and concern over Vale's supply will keep Q119 prices elevated.
We already expect strong Chinese demand for iron ore in 2019 to buoy prices as government fiscal support to the infrastructure sector underpins steel production.
With a major mining disaster ensuring prices start the first quarter of the year on a higher base, our forecast for 2019 means prices will average lower once sentiment over Brumadinho settles, from the current spot level of USD81/tonne, although higher Chinese construction activity as a result of increased approvals of infrastructure projects will prevent any sharp declines in the coming months.
We maintain our view for iron ore prices to trend downwards in subsequent years as Chinese economic growth refocuses away from heavy industry to services, dampening demand for iron ore.
Table of Contents
Commodity Price Forecast
Global Industry Overview
- Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade
Industry Trend Analysis
Global Company Strategy
- Rio Tinto
- Anglo American
- BHP Billiton