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질환 분석 : COVID-19 예방

Disease Analysis: COVID-19 Prevention

리서치사 Datamonitor Healthcare
발행일 2021년 05월 상품코드 980109
페이지 정보 영문 140 Pages 배송안내 1-2일 (영업일 기준)
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질환 분석 : COVID-19 예방 Disease Analysis: COVID-19 Prevention
발행일 : 2021년 05월 페이지 정보 : 영문 140 Pages

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문 목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

COVID-19의 백신은 임상적·물류적 요인을 비롯해 백신 공급과 가격 설정이 도입의 중요한 결정요인이 될 전망입니다. 또한 공급 제약이 해소되었을 때 기업이 장기적인 수익성을 확보하기 위해 보다 적당한 백신 가격 설정을 채용하려 하고 있기 때문에 팬데믹 이후는 가격 설정이 더욱 현저한 요인이 될 것으로 예측됩니다.

세계의 COVID-19 예방에 대해 조사했으며, 질환 배경, 역학, 파이프라인 제품과 임상시험, 백신 평가, 시장 동향, 애널리스트의 견해 등의 정보를 제공합니다.

목차

내용

개요

  • 최신 요점

질환 배경

  • 정의
  • 전염·감염
  • 증상
  • 진단
  • 환자 세분화
  • 위험인자

역학

  • 고위험 인구 유병률 조사 방법
  • 고위험 그룹 유행 집단
  • 고위험 그룹 유병률
  • 감염 치사율
  • 입원
  • 입원 환자 특징

시판 예방약

파이프라인 예방약

주요 규제 이벤트

성공 확률

라이선싱 및 자산 취득 거래

  • AuraVax : 새로운 비강내 백신 기술
  • TScan : T세포 COVID-19 검사에 대한 Qiagen과의 제휴
  • Destiny와 SporeGen : COVID-19에 대한 후비 스프레이형 백신

임상시험 상황

  • 상황별 스폰서
  • 단계별 스폰서
  • 최근의 이벤트

백신 평가

  • mRNA 기반 백신
  • 아데노바이러스 벡터 백신
  • 단백질 아단위 백신
  • 불활화 백신
  • 주목해야 할 기타 백신(임상시험 데이터 없음 또는 한정)
  • 단일클론항체
  • 항바이러스제

시장 역학

시장 동향

최근의 사건과 애널리스트의 견해

  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(Moderna)(2020년 11월 30일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 AZD1222(2020년 11월 23일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 AZD1222(2020년 11월 18일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 BNT162(2020년 11월 18일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(2020년 11월 16일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 코로나바이러스 VLP 백신(Medicago)(2020년 11월 10일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(2020년 11월 9일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 BNT162(2020년 11월 9일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 JNJ-78436735(2020년 9월 25일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 AZD1222(2020년 9월 9일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(2020년 8월 26일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 BNT162(2020년 8월 20일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 NVX-CoV2373(2020년 8월 4일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 Ad5-nCoV(2020년 7월 20일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 AZD1222(2020년 7월 20일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 BNT162(2020년 7월 20일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(2020년 7월 14일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 BNT162(2020년 7월 1일)
  • COVID-19 예방을 위한 mRNA-1273(2020년 5월 18일)

향후 주요 이벤트

미충족 수요

  • 저소득국에서의 백신 공급 증가
  • 예방 접종 자격이 없는 개인을 위한 대체 옵션
  • 소아 환자를 대상으로 한 백신 임상시험

참고문헌

부록

그림목차

표목차

KSM 21.01.14

Definition:

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus that emerged in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 12 May 2021, there have been 159,319,384 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 3,311,780 confirmed deaths globally. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the coronavirus family, which collectively cause respiratory and intestinal disease in humans and animals, with other prominent members of the family including Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus. SARS-CoV-2 is believed to have originated from a horseshoe bat coronavirus, which either spread to humans directly or jumped via an intermediate host (possibly a pangolin), which may have facilitated transmission to humans.

Latest key takeaways

Several vaccines have been approved for emergency use in adults across the world, and while estimates of efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 have varied from 50% to 95%, efficacy estimates against severe infection/hospitalization have been consistently high across all vaccine approaches investigated thus far. The latter is an important finding as severe/hospitalized COVID-19 infections represent the greatest social and economic disease burden, and the primary aim of current vaccination campaigns is to reduce mortality and ease pressure on overwhelmed hospitals by reducing hospitalization rates.

Efficacy against asymptomatic infection is an important factor that could serve to differentiate the various vaccine approaches in the long term, as asymptomatic carriers are believed to be responsible for approximately one quarter of transmissions, thus vaccines capable of inducing sterilizing immunity will also provide some measure of indirect protection to non-vaccinated individuals. Earlier-launched vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca have an advantage in this regard as they are the subject of ongoing studies to measure the impact of vaccination on asymptomatic transmission, and it is more feasible to conduct such trials when transmission is still high.

Given the constant threat of the emergence of new viral variants bearing mutations in the spike protein that allow them to partially or fully evade immune responses generated by first-generation vaccines, developers that can generate data showing efficacy against these variants could have a substantial advantage, though the extent of the advantage will depend on the prevalence and spread of the variants in each region. All the leading vaccine developers (Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax) are currently exploring booster shots with existing vaccines and/or second-generation vaccines with optimized spike protein antigens to address the threat posed by new variants, but Pfizer/BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson currently have the most robust efficacy data against the concerning South African B1.351 strain.

Vaccine supply and pricing will also be crucial determinants of uptake, with the former likely to be the dominant influencer of market share trends throughout 2021 and early 2022 as demand outstrips supply. Conversely, pricing will become a more prominent factor post the pandemic phase as supply constraints are resolved and companies seek to adopt more typical vaccine pricing to ensure longer-term profitability. However, pledges from Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson, and AstraZeneca to market vaccines at non-profit prices during the pandemic phase could set a price ceiling for other for-profit competitors that may be hard to escape from beyond 2022, particularly given that competition from additional manufacturers is expected by that point. Indeed, even if only the current late-phase vaccines successfully reach the market, there will be substantial oversupply of vaccines post-2022, thus Datamonitor Healthcare expects significant pipeline attrition throughout 2021 and possible market withdrawals post-2022 as more minor players reallocate resources to other, more profitable indications.

Demand is expected to vastly outstrip supply until at least mid-2022, meaning additional market entrants are still required to increase vaccine availability. This is especially the case for lower-income markets, which have struggled to compete in securing priority access to vaccines compared to developed markets. Fortunately, several more vaccines are expected to launch in 2021 which will substantially boost global supply. The COVAX initiative (coordinated by CEPI, GAVI, and the WHO), which aims to secure at least 2 billion doses for participating countries by the end of 2021, will also play a pivotal role in ensuring lower-income markets are able to have access to vaccines, though this supply will only be sufficient to vaccinate the highest-risk groups rather than entire populations.

Four Chinese vaccines, a Russian vaccine (Sputnik V), and two Indian vaccines (Covishield and Covaxin) have gained emergency approvals in China, India, Russia, and other emerging markets, and will play an important role in supplying lower-income countries during 2021. Sputnik V and CoronaVac are also under review by the EMA and are expected to be the fifth and sixth vaccines approved in the EU, respectively, acting to plug a supply gap for adult vaccination campaigns.

Comirnaty's and mRNA-1273's excellent efficacy and safety profiles and first-to-market statuses have positioned them for phenomenal sales potential in 2021, with Pfizer guiding $26bn in sales, BioNTech guiding $15.1bn, and Moderna guiding $19.2bn. Comirnaty's greater success thus far likely reflects Pfizer's extensive commercial resources and marketing experience, as well as its higher manufacturing capacity (3 billion annual capacity in 2021 vs 800 million to 1 billion for Moderna), which have allowed the company to secure more pre-purchase agreements, including deals with the EU totaling 2.4 billion doses.

The longer-term role of adenoviral vector-based COVID-19 vaccines is in doubt following the association of AstraZeneca's and Johnson & Johnson's vaccines with an increased risk of very rare blood clots, including cerebral venous sinus thromboses (CVSTs) that also present with thrombocytopenia. It is currently unclear if this association is a class-wide effect, as similar adverse events have not yet been reported with Sputnik V (Ad26 and Ad5) or Convidecia (Ad5), but widespread media coverage of blood clots with Vaxzevria and JNJ-78436735 has led to significant hesitancy among younger adults, particularly younger women.

Vaccines will ultimately be able to cater for the vast majority of individuals, but there remains a smaller market opportunity for monoclonal antibodies and antivirals in the prevention setting for those who are not eligible for vaccination or who require immediate protection in outbreak control settings. A handful of monoclonal antibodies are in development for the prevention of COVID-19, though they are expensive to produce and manufacturing capacities are limited. Antivirals could also play an important role in these scenarios and have the advantage of oral dosing and lower cost compared to monoclonal antibodies, though there is still room for improvement in dosing schedules as the most advanced candidates require twice-daily dosing.

Key upcoming catalysts include pivotal trial readouts for Novavax's NVX-CoV2373, CureVac's CVnCoV, and Medicago's CoVLP, as well as possible approvals for these vaccines in Q3 2021. These vaccines will play a crucial role in boosting supply, particularly in the EU and Canada, where vaccine rollout has been slow.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW

  • Latest key takeaways

DISEASE BACKGROUND

  • Definition
  • Transmission
  • Symptoms
  • Diagnosis
  • Patient segmentation
  • Risk factors
  • WHO vaccination allocation guidelines

EPIDEMIOLOGY

  • High-risk population prevalence methodology
  • High-risk group prevalent populations
  • High-risk group prevalent cases
  • Infection fatality rate
  • Hospitalization
  • Hospitalized patient characteristics

MARKETED PREVENTIVE AGENTS

PIPELINE PREVENTIVE AGENTS

KEY REGULATORY EVENTS

  • Coronavirus Notebook: EMA Begins Rolling Review of Sinovac Vaccine
  • EMA Reviews Comirnaty In Younger Age Groups
  • COVAX To Get Moderna Vaccine
  • Brazil Regulator Rejects Sputnik V Vaccine Citing Serious Quality & Safety Concerns
  • With J&J's COVID Vaccine Pause Now Lifted, The Question Is How Well The System Worked
  • Coronavirus Notebook: New EMA Review To Contextualize Blood Clot Risk From AZ Jab, EU Gets Earlier Access To More Pfizer Vaccines
  • Sputnik V Cleared in India, Trajectory Against Variants May Be Key
  • COVID-19 Vaccine Authorization In Adolescents Would Raise Questions Around Routine Immunizations
  • AZ And Capillary Leak Syndrome
  • Regulators Reassure On AZ Vaccine Safety After Rare Side Effect Deemed Plausible
  • Coronavirus Notebook: Moderna Vaccine First To Get GB Conditional MA, EMA To Update On AstraZeneca Blood Clot Issue
  • Brazil OKs Fourth COVID-19 Vaccine, But Knocks Back Bharat Biotech
  • First EU Nation OKs CanSino's One-Shot COVID Jab
  • Dr Reddy's Submits Sputnik V To DCGI
  • J&J's Single Shot Is EU's Fourth COVID-19 Vaccine - But Supplies Lag
  • Takeda Files For Japan Approval Of Moderna Vaccine
  • Russia's Sputnik V COVID-19 Vaccine Starts EU Rolling Review
  • Canada Approves Two Versions Of AZ Vaccine
  • Slovakia Becomes Second EU Country To OK Use Of Russian Vaccine

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS

LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS

  • Moderna Announces Agreement with Gavi Vaccines Alliance
  • Pfizer Commits To Supporting Indian Government's Immunization Program
  • Strides Pharma's Stelis And Dr Reddy's Partner With RDIF For Sputnik V Vaccine
  • Sputnik V In Turkish Production Deal
  • Korea's Genexine To Supply Vaccine To Kalbe In Indonesia
  • RDIF Links With Korean Consortia For Local Production
  • EU Extends Pfizer Deal
  • RDIF Ties Up Nearly 750 Million Doses Of Sputnik V From India
  • AstraZeneca Partners With Insud Pharma For Vaccine In Spain
  • UK Government Extends Vaccination Contract With Wockhardt
  • Beximco Orders Vaccine Doses For Bangladesh's Private Healthcare
  • Daiichi Starts Japan Contract Production Of AZ Vaccine
  • Partnership To Boost Vaccine Production In India
  • EU Buys More Comirnaty Doses
  • GC To Distribute Moderna Vaccine In Korea
  • CEPI, SK Expand Vaccine Partnership To Variants
  • Russians Negotiating EU Manufacturing Deals
  • Novartis Teams Up With CureVac To Make COVID-19 Vaccine
  • Merck & Co. Will Manufacture J&J Vaccine, Other COVID-19 Medicines Under BARDA Deal
  • Start-Up Scanwell Adds Another Collaboration, Targets Home COVID-19 Testing With BD
  • Pfizer And Moderna Reap Rewards Of Expanded US And EU Deals
  • CureVac Enlists Bayer To Secure Place Among COVID-19 Vaccines 'Second Wave'
  • COVAX Secures New Vaccine Deals
  • BioNTech Agrees China Supply Deal With Fosun
  • Singapore Adds Moderna To List Of Suppliers
  • Coronavirus Notebook: Regulators To Work Together On Vaccine Evaluation, AstraZeneca In Russia Link-Up
  • Operation Warp Speed Angles For Greater Role In Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing
  • CEPI Allies With Korea's SK bioscience For Vaccine
  • RDIF-Hetero Collaborate To Produce Sputnik V
  • AuraVax Takes Option To Novel Intranasal Vaccine Technology
  • TScan Teams Up With Qiagen On T Cell COVID-19 Test
  • Destiny And SporeGen Back Nasal Spray Over Vaccine To Tackle COVID-19

CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE

  • Sponsors by status
  • Sponsors by phase
  • Recent events

VACCINES ASSESSMENT MODEL

  • Overview

MRNA-BASED VACCINES

ADENOVIRAL VECTOR VACCINES

PROTEIN SUBUNIT VACCINES

INACTIVATED VACCINES

OTHER VACCINES

MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES

  • Other monoclonal antibodies to watch

ANTIVIRALS

MARKET DYNAMICS

FUTURE TRENDS

RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION

  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (May 5, 2021)
  • VLA2001 for COVID-19 Prevention (April 6, 2021)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (March 31, 2021)
  • C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (March 22, 2021)
  • COVAXIN for COVID-19 Prevention (March 3, 2021)
  • JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (February 26, 2021)
  • JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (February 24, 2021)
  • Coronavirus Vaccine (Vaxart) for COVID-19 Prevention (February 3, 2021)
  • JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (January 29, 2021)
  • NVX-CoV2373 for COVID-19 Prevention (January 28, 2021)
  • REGEN-COV for COVID-19 Prevention (January 26, 2021)
  • Bamlanivimab for COVID-19 Prevention (January 21, 2021)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 17, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 15, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 10, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 8, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 (Moderna) for COVID-19 Prevention (November 30, 2020)
  • C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (November 23, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 18, 2020)
  • C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (November 18, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 16, 2020)
  • Coronavirus VLP Vaccine (Medicago) for COVID-19 Prevention (November 10, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 9, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 9, 2020)
  • JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (September 25, 2020)
  • C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (September 9, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 26, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 20, 2020)
  • NVX-CoV2373 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 4, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • Convidecia for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 14, 2020)
  • BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 1, 2020)
  • mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (May 18, 2020)

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

UNMET NEEDS

  • Increased vaccine supply, particularly in lower-income countries
  • Alternative options for individuals not eligible for vaccination
  • Additional data and approvals in pediatric patients

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX

LIST OF FIGURES

  • Figure 1: COVID-19 infection fatality rates, by age group
  • Figure 2: COVID-19 hospitalization rates, by age group
  • Figure 3: Overview of pipeline COVID-19 preventive agents in the US
  • Figure 4: Pipeline COVID-19 preventive agents, by company
  • Figure 5: Pipeline COVID-19 preventive agents, by drug type
  • Figure 6: Pipeline COVID-19 preventive agents, by classification
  • Figure 7: Probability of success in the antiviral pipeline
  • Figure 8: Clinical trials in COVID-19 treatment and prevention
  • Figure 9: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in COVID-19 treatment and prevention
  • Figure 10: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in COVID-19 treatment and prevention
  • Figure 11: Trial locations in COVID-19 treatment and prevention
  • Figure 12: COVID-19 treatment and prevention trials status
  • Figure 13: COVID-19 treatment and prevention trials sponsors, by phase
  • Figure 14: Datamonitor Healthcare's vaccine assessment summary for COVID-19 prevention
  • Figure 15: Market dynamics in COVID-19 prevention
  • Figure 16: Future trends in COVID-19 prevention
  • Figure 17: JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (January 29, 2021): Phase III - ENSEMBLE
  • Figure 18: REGEN-COV for COVID-19 Prevention (January 26, 2021): Phase III - Prevention (Close Exposure)
  • Figure 19: Key upcoming events in COVID-19 prevention

LIST OF TABLES

  • Table 1: Clinical status scores and interpretations
  • Table 2: WHO recommendations for prioritization of vaccination in settings where there is widespread community transmission
  • Table 3: Priority populations for COVID-19 vaccination, and prevalence sources
  • Table 4: Total prevalent population in each COVID-19 high-risk group, by global region, 2020
  • Table 5: Proportion of hospitalized COVID-19 cases, by patient characteristic
  • Table 6: Marketed preventive agents for COVID-19
  • Table 7: Pipeline preventive agents for COVID-19 in the US
  • Table 8: Summary of available efficacy data and estimates of manufacturing capacity for vaccines with emergency/conditional approvals or in late-phase development
  • Table 9: Summary of the progress of vaccination campaigns in the US, Japan, and five major European markets
  • Table 10: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (May 5, 2021)
  • Table 11: VLA2001 for COVID-19 Prevention (April 6, 2021)
  • Table 12: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (March 31, 2021)
  • Table 13: C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (March 22, 2021)
  • Table 14: COVAXIN for COVID-19 Prevention (March 3, 2021)
  • Table 15: JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (February 26, 2021)
  • Table 16: JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (February 24, 2021)
  • Table 17: Coronavirus Vaccine (Vaxart) for COVID-19 Prevention (February 3, 2021)
  • Table 18: JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (January 29, 2021)
  • Table 19: NVX-CoV2373 for COVID-19 Prevention (January 28, 2021)
  • Table 20: REGEN-COV for COVID-19 Prevention (January 26, 2021)
  • Table 21: Bamlanivimab for COVID-19 Prevention (January 21, 2021)
  • Table 22: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 17, 2020)
  • Table 23: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 15, 2020)
  • Table 24: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 10, 2020)
  • Table 25: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (December 8, 2020)
  • Table 26: mRNA-1273 (Moderna) for COVID-19 Prevention (November 30, 2020)
  • Table 27: C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (November 23, 2020)
  • Table 28: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 18, 2020)
  • Table 29: C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (November 18, 2020)
  • Table 30: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 16, 2020)
  • Table 31: Coronavirus VLP Vaccine (Medicago) for COVID-19 Prevention (November 10, 2020)
  • Table 32: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 9, 2020)
  • Table 33: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (November 9, 2020)
  • Table 34: JNJ-78436735 for COVID-19 Prevention (September 25, 2020)
  • Table 35: C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (September 9, 2020)
  • Table 36: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 26, 2020)
  • Table 37: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 20, 2020)
  • Table 38: NVX-CoV2373 for COVID-19 Prevention (August 4, 2020)
  • Table 39: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • Table 40: C19VAZ for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • Table 41: Convidecia for COVID-19 Prevention (July 20, 2020)
  • Table 42: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 14, 2020)
  • Table 43: BNT162 for COVID-19 Prevention (July 1, 2020)
  • Table 44: mRNA-1273 for COVID-19 Prevention (May 18, 2020)
  • Table 45: Doses secured by the US, Canada, Japan, EU, and UK
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