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중앙아메리카의 거시경제 전망과 예측(-2022년)

Central American Macroeconomic Prospects, Forecast to 2022

리서치사 Frost & Sullivan
발행일 2018년 11월 상품 코드 757072
페이지 정보 영문 58 Pages
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중앙아메리카의 거시경제 전망과 예측(-2022년) Central American Macroeconomic Prospects, Forecast to 2022
발행일 : 2018년 11월 페이지 정보 : 영문 58 Pages

중앙아메리카의 거시경제 전망을 국가별로 조사했으며, 정치적 배경, GDP 성장 기여요인과 장벽, 5개년 GDP 예측, 인구 및 인구 성장률 전망 등의 정보를 정리했습니다.

1. 주요 요약

  • 거시경제 요점
    • 벨리즈
    • 코스타리카
    • 엘살바도르
    • 과테말라
    • 온두라스
    • 니카라과
    • 파나마

2. 조사 범위

3. 벨리즈

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

4. 코스타리카

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

5. 엘살바도르

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

6. 과테말라

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

7. 온두라스

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

8. 니카라과

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

9. 파나마

  • 정치 분석
  • GDP 성장률 전망
  • 인구 전망

10. 성장 기회와 추천 행동

11. 결론

12. 부록

13. FROST & SULLIVAN에 대해

LSH 19.01.09

GDP Growth of Most Economies to Remain More or Less Stable or Accelerate

This research delves into the macroeconomic outlook for Central American countries, with respect to political environment, GDP growth, and demographics. Countries analyzed as part this research include Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. The study period for this research is 2014 to 2022, with estimates for 2018, and forecasts for 2019 to 2022.

Political unrest and instability are challenges across most of these economies, with, for example, the President of Honduras sworn in January 2018 for a second term amid protests. Similarly, in Nicaragua, there were violent clashes in 2018 following protests against government reforms. Costa Rica has been struggling in the recent years to get fiscal reforms passed, with the newly elected President facing the important task of securing approvals for a fiscal reform package. Some of the salient, proposed fiscal reforms include the replacement of a sales tax with a value-added tax (VAT), and a ceiling on public sector employee wages. In 2019, Belize could potentially hold a referendum regarding territorial dispute with Guatemala, with the latter having conducted a referendum in 2018.

With regard to GDP growth, growth is expected to remain more or less stable or accelerate over the forecast period for most of these economies. Belize, for example, saw a rebound in GDP growth in 2017 following negative growth in 2016, with growth expected to gain further momentum over the forecast period, especially supported by the tourism sector. Panama is expected to be the fastest growing country amongst these set of countries, with a forecast growth rate of 5.6% until 2022, specifically supported by higher construction activities. Honduras, however, is expected to see a dip in growth between 2017 and 2018 on account of factors, such as higher oil prices and restraints stemming from US immigration policy changes. Should a fiscal reform package be passed in Costa Rica, GDP growth would be lesser than projected, with current forecasts hovering at about 3.4%.

The pace of population of growth is expected to decline across countries, with the working age population share to, however, increase across all the countries. The trend of increasing working age population stands in direct contrast to the declining trend seen across the developed world. A growing working age population should grant companies the benefit of choosing from a larger labour pool. Costa Rica is expected to be the only countries that will see its working age population share contract over the forecast period.

Key Issues Addressed:

  • What is the political outlook for these countries?
  • What are the major political developments that companies should be cognizant of?
  • What are the key drivers and restraints shaping the GDP growth outlook?
  • What is the five-year GDP growth forecast for these countries?
  • What is the outlook for population and population growth?
  • How are the population shares of the working age, the elderly, and the children expected to evolve?

Table of Contents

1. CENTRAL AMERICAN MACROECONOMIC PROSPECTS, FORECAST TO 2022

Executive Summary

  • Belize-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • Costa Rica-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • El Salvador-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • Guatemala-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • Honduras-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • Nicaragua-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways
  • Panama-Macroeconomic Key Takeaways

Research Scope

  • Research Scope

Belize

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Costa Rica

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

El Salvador

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Guatemala

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Honduras

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Nicaragua

  • Political Analysis Outlook
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Panama

  • Political Analysis
  • GDP Growth Outlook
  • Population Outlook

Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

  • Growth Opportunities

Key Conclusions

  • Key Conclusions
  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)

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