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차세대 통신사업자(Telco) : 새로운 Telco 경제 예측(-2025년)

Next Gen Telcos: New Telco Economics By 2025

리서치사 IDATE DigiWorld
발행일 2016년 12월 상품 코드 410944
페이지 정보 영문 159 Pages
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차세대 통신사업자(Telco) : 새로운 Telco 경제 예측(-2025년) Next Gen Telcos: New Telco Economics By 2025
발행일 : 2016년 12월 페이지 정보 : 영문 159 Pages

디지털 경제(Digital Economy)에 대해 예측되는 발전을 고려하여 커넥티비티, IoT, OTT, IT 시장에 초점을 맞춘 통신사업자(Telco)의 향후 가능성에 대해 조사했으며, 통신사업자(Telco)의 주요 이해관계, 주요 통신사업자(Telco) 전환 계획, 13개 디지털 시장과 통신사업자(Telco)의 주요 기회, 4개 예측 등의 정보를 전해드립니다.

제1장 주요 요약

제2장 조사 방법과 정의

제3장 상황 및 이해관계

  • 통신사업자(Telco) 경제의 배경
    • 통신사업자(Telco)의 매출
    • 수익성
    • 커넥티비티 수요
  • 통신 규제 현황의 배경
    • 사전에서 사후 제도로의 이동
    • 불균형적 감독체계
    • 지역마다 다른 규칙
    • 로밍
    • 균등한 기회
  • 통신사업자(Telco)의 주요 이해관계
    • 인프라
    • 제품 및 서비스
    • 고객 경험

제4장 통신사업자(Telco)의 계획

  • 통합
  • AT & T
    • 인프라
    • 제품 및 서비스
    • 고객 경험
  • BT
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Orange
  • Telefonica
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone

제5장 디지털 시장과 통신사업자(Telco)

  • 통합
  • M2M
    • 시장 설명
    • 시장 구조
    • 시장 규모
  • 커넥티드 헬스케어
  • 커넥티드카
  • 스마트홈
  • 웨어러블
  • 모바일 금융 서비스
  • 소셜 미디어 및 메시징
  • 통합 커뮤니케이션(UC) & CPaaS(Communication Platform as a Service)
  • 클라우드
  • 광고 및 데이터 분석
  • 모바일 보안
  • 디지털 ID
  • 비디오 서비스 및 컨텐츠 전송

제6장 시나리오

  • 예측 방법
  • 주요 불확정 요소
  • 전체적인 견해
  • 디지털 경제 : 4개 시나리오
    • 몰 시나리오 : 고객 중심
    • 오픈 시나리오 : 기술 중심
    • 자동화 : 비용 중심
    • 신뢰 : 보안 및 프라이버시 중심

제7장 통신사업자(Telco)에 대한 시나리오의 영향

  • Telco
    • Telco의 활동
    • Telco와 몰
    • Telco와 오픈
    • Telco와 자동화
    • Telco와 신뢰
  • 시장 규모 및 전망
    • 디지털 시장
    • Telco의 매출
    • Telco의 이익

부록

도표

LSH 17.01.23

This report provides an assessment of the potential futures for telcos by 2025, taking into account expected evolutions in the digital economy, with a focus on connectivity, IoT, OTT and IT markets.

It first puts in perspective the key stakes that telcos have to tackle. It then looks at how major telcos are indeed trying to address with transformation plans for 2020 through an in-depth benchmark.

A very large focus on 13 digital markets is then conducted to determine the major opportunities for telcos leveraging some of their genuine assets.

The report finally draws 4 disruptive scenarios for 2025 and assesses for each of them the likely portfolio of services, the organisation and processes, the potential revenues (with a breakdown per type of revenue) but also the EBITDA and FCF margins, showing how telco economics could be radically transformed

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology & definitions

  • 2.1. General methodology of IDATE's reports
  • 2.2. Specific methodology
    • 2.2.1. Framework of analysis of verticals per type of activity
    • 2.2.2. Cost model framework

3. Context and stakes

  • 3.1. Background on telco economics
    • 3.1.1. Telco revenues
    • 3.1.2. Profitability
    • 3.1.3. Demand for connectivity
  • 3.2. Background on the telecom regulatory context
    • 3.2.1. Transition from ex-ante to ex-post regimes
    • 3.2.2. Regulatory (a)symmetry
    • 3.2.3. Geographically differentiated rules
    • 3.2.4. Roaming
    • 3.2.5. Level playing field
  • 3.3. Key stakes for telcos
    • 3.3.1. Infrastructure
    • 3.3.2. Products and services
    • 3.3.3. Customer experience

4. Telcos plans for 2020

  • 4.1. Synthesis
  • 4.2. AT&T
    • 4.2.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.2.2. Products and services
    • 4.2.3. Customer experience
  • 4.3. BT
    • 4.3.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.3.2. Products and services
    • 4.3.3. Customer experience
  • 4.4. Deutsche Telekom
    • 4.4.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.4.2. Products and Services
    • 4.4.3. Customer experience
  • 4.5. Orange
    • 4.5.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.5.2. Products and services
    • 4.5.3. Customer experience
  • 4.6. Telefónica
    • 4.6.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.6.2. Products and services
    • 4.6.3. Customer experience
  • 4.7. Verizon
    • 4.7.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.7.2. Products and services
    • 4.7.3. Customer experience
  • 4.8. Vodafone
    • 4.8.1. Infrastructure
    • 4.8.2. Products and services
    • 4.8.3. Customer experience

5. Focus on digital markets and telcos

  • 5.1. Synthesis
  • 5.2. M2M
    • 5.2.1. Market description
    • 5.2.2. Market structure
    • 5.2.3. Market sizing
  • 5.3. Connected healthcare
    • 5.3.1. Market description
    • 5.3.2. Market structure
    • 5.3.3. Market sizing
  • 5.4. Connected Cars
    • 5.4.1. Market description
    • 5.4.2. Market structure
    • 5.4.3. Market sizing
  • 5.5. Smart Home
    • 5.5.1. Market description
    • 5.5.2. Market structure
    • 5.5.3. Market sizing
  • 5.6. Wearables
    • 5.6.1. Market description
    • 5.6.2. Market structure
    • 5.6.3. Market sizing
  • 5.7. Mobile financial services
    • 5.7.1. Market description
    • 5.7.2. Market structure 94
    • 5.7.3. Market sizing
  • 5.8. Social media and messaging
    • 5.8.1. Market description
    • 5.8.2. Market structure
    • 5.8.3. Market sizing
  • 5.9. UC (Unified Communications) & CPaaS (Communication Platform as a Service)
    • 5.9.1. Market description
    • 5.9.2. Market structure
    • 5.9.3. Market sizing
  • 5.10. Cloud
    • 5.10.1. Market description
    • 5.10.2. Market structure
    • 5.10.3. Market sizing
  • 5.11. Advertising and data analytics
    • 5.11.1. Market description
    • 5.11.2. Market structure
    • 5.11.3. Market sizing
  • 5.12. Mobile security
    • 5.12.1. Market description
    • 5.12.2. Market structure
    • 5.12.3. Market sizing
  • 5.13. Digital identity
    • 5.13.1. Market description
    • 5.13.2. Market structure
    • 5.13.3. Market sizing
  • 5.14. Video services and content delivery
    • 5.14.1. Market description
    • 5.14.2. Market size and trends
    • 5.14.3. Market structure and competition
    • 5.14.4. Opportunities for telcos

6. Scenarios for 2025

  • 6.1. Quick reminder on foresight methodology
  • 6.2. Major uncertainties
  • 6.3. Overall view
  • 6.4. The digital economy in 2025: four scenarios
    • 6.4.1. Mall scenario: Customer-centric
    • 6.4.2. Open scenario: Technology-centric
    • 6.4.3. Automated: Cost-centric
    • 6.4.4. Trust: security and privacy-centric

7. Impacts of scenarios for telcos

  • 7.1. Telcos in 2025
    • 7.1.1. Telco activities in 2025
    • 7.1.2. Telcos and Mall
    • 7.1.3. Telcos and Open
    • 7.1.4. Telcos and Automated
    • 7.1.5. Telcos and Trust
  • 7.2. Market sizing and perspectives
    • 7.2.1. Digital markets in 2025
    • 7.2.2. Telco revenues
    • 7.2.3. Telco margins

Tables

  • Table 1: Typical European telco cost breakdown
  • Table 2: Cost model: network costs
  • Table 3: Cost model: general and administrative costs
  • Table 4: Overview of key digital markets
  • Table 5: Telco potential assets to develop in the digital markets
  • Table 6: M2M market segmentation
  • Table 7: Telcos' positioning on cellular M2M technologies
  • Table 8: Carrier positioning out of connectivity
  • Table 9: Application features including usage and ARPU
  • Table 10: Main applications in the automotive industry
  • Table 11: Connected car strategy regarding module implementation (except for electric cars)
  • Table 12: Summary of key elements for telematics development
  • Table 13: Main mobile payment services by telcos
  • Table 14: Types of cloud services sold by different players
  • Table 16: Key players in the video market
  • Table 17 : Telcos portfolio of services by 2025
  • Table 18: Orange network sharing deals
  • Table 19: Types of digital identity services offered by telecom operators
  • Table 20: Ranking of total market size and telco market size for the four scenarios
  • Table 21: Ranking of total digital market size and of that generated by telcos, for the four scenarios
  • Table 22: % of EBITDA, CAPEX and FCF to revenues, compared to 2016 for the four scenarios

Figures

  • Figure 1: Cost model framework (CAPEX vs OPEX)
  • Figure 2: Telecom revenues in EU28, USA, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 3: Mobile ARPU in EU28, USA, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Telecom revenues as share of GDP in EU-5, 2001-2015
  • Figure 5: Revenues by service in EU28, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Share of mobile voice and data revenues in EU28, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Change in the top European telcos' EBITDA to revenue ratio, 2010-2015
  • Figure 8: CAPEX/sales ratio in EU5, 2010-2015
  • Figure 9: Access lines in EU28, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: NGA penetration by technology in EU28, 2015-2020-2025
  • Figure 11: Level-playing field concerns in the draft ECC
  • Figure 12: The IDATE framework for digital transformation
  • Figure 13: Global fixed and mobile CAPEX
  • Figure 14: Significant capacity promises of fibre
  • Figure 15: Performance objectives for 5G and associated use cases
  • Figure 16: Role of SDN and NFV in the future carrier network
  • Figure 17: Regression of mobile revenues and GDP
  • Figure 18: Summary of the OECD communication price benchmarking baskets
  • Figure 19: Top mobile apps worldwide
  • Figure 20: Industry offering the best customer service according to consumers
  • Figure 21: Comparison of Net Promoter Scores for Netflix, Comcast and Time Warner Cable, 2013-2015
  • Figure 22: Personal data hierarchy
  • Figure 23: Integration of innovative technologies in customer relationship channels
  • Figure 24: Changes in the number of points of sale of several operators between 2013 and 2015
  • Figure 25: Telcos strategy plan names and priorities
  • Figure 26: Domain 2.0 key principles
  • Figure 27: Cloud networking architecture
  • Figure 28: AT&T strategy
  • Figure 29: AT&T's approach to IoT
  • Figure 30: AT&T end-to-end M2M offering
  • Figure 31: AT&T US connected cars projection
  • Figure 32: An AT&T store designed like a home
  • Figure 33: BT's strategy
  • Figure 34: Evolution of BT's CAPEX (year ended 31 March)
  • Figure 35: Products and services offered by BT within BT Global Services
  • Figure 36: BT's Cloud of Clouds vision
  • Figure 37: Creating synergies between fixed and mobile, a part of BT's strategy to grow in the UK
  • Figure 38: BT customer interaction through "My App"
  • Figure 39: DT's superior production model
  • Figure 40: OPEX savings for the early 2020s
  • Figure 41: Deutsche Telekom's ambitious goal for LTE and fibre by 2018
  • Figure 42: Key elements for the transformation
  • Figure 43: Pannet objective
  • Figure 44: Magenta One for consumers
  • Figure 45: Growth in Pay-TV market
  • Figure 46: B2B revenue transformation
  • Figure 47: Business customers activities
  • Figure 48: Customer experience evolution
  • Figure 49: Digitalisation of customer experience
  • Figure 50 : Orange transformation in line with new customer expectations
  • Figure 51 : Orange CAPEX breakdown
  • Figure 52 : Orange effort in CAPEX
  • Figure 53 : Orange 5 pillars to deliver agile networks
  • Figure 54: Orange strategy around connected objects
  • Figure 55: Orange's Polaris interface and multiscreen offering
  • Figure 56: Smart Store concept
  • Figure 57 : The six foundations of Telefónica's Telco Onlife programme
  • Figure 58: Telefónica's mobile network ambitions
  • Figure 59: Telefónica's roadmap
  • Figure 60: Vision on IoT
  • Figure 61: Telefónica's position on smart cities
  • Figure 62: Video platform
  • Figure 63: Monitoring of the Customer Experience Index
  • Figure 64: Verizon's three-tier strategy
  • Figure 65: LTE coverage comparison in the US
  • Figure 66: Go90 offering
  • Figure 67: The ThingSpace IoT platform
  • Figure 68: Key areas covered in IoT
  • Figure 69: Lifestyle zones in Verizon superstores
  • Figure 70: Vodafone's strategy vision by 2020
  • Figure 71: Efficiency improvements
  • Figure 72: Project Spring started in 2013
  • Figure 73: Vodafone's infrastructure goals
  • Figure 74: Vodafone realisations
  • Figure 75: Network and IT efficiency-cost control
  • Figure 76 : Vodafone's options for growth
  • Figure 77: Acquisition of Cobra by Vodafone
  • Figure 78: Vodafone's position in communications
  • Figure 79: Vodafone CARE internal project
  • Figure 80: Current positioning of telcos on digital products (2016)
  • Figure 81 : Telco assets per type of activity
  • Figure 82: M2M value chain
  • Figure 83: Connected health, as part of healthcare
  • Figure 84: Healthcare value chain
  • Figure 85: Key positioning differentiation among carriers in the healthcare market
  • Figure 86: Global installed base of connected healthcare devices 2014-2020
  • Figure 87: Worldwide revenue of connected healthcare services, 2014-2020
  • Figure 88: Value chain of the connected car market
  • Figure 89: Key positioning differentiation among carriers in the automotive market
  • Figure 90: Business model of connected cars
  • Figure 91: Concept of Smart Home
  • Figure 92: Broad landscape of the smart home market
  • Figure 93: Key positioning differentiation among carriers in the smart home market
  • Figure 94: Common architecture for most wearable devices
  • Figure 95: Value chain of wearables
  • Figure 96: Key positioning differentiation among carriers in the wearable market
  • Figure 98: Mobile payment segmentation
  • Figure 99: Value chain of the mobile financial services market
  • Figure 100: The HCE NFC architecture
  • Figure 101: Monthly active users of the most popular social platforms (social networks and messaging apps)
  • Figure 102: Social networks and messaging services as part of a broader platform strategy
  • Figure 103: The value flow with and without OTT communication providers
  • Figure 104: TU Go for Web interface, by Telefónica
  • Figure 105: OTT IP messaging market worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 106: OTT VoIP market worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 107: Overview of players on the professional unified communications market
  • Figure 108: The CPaaS market structure; increasing involvement of major traditional communication players
  • Figure 109: Unified communications market size 2014-2020
  • Figure 110: CPaaS market size 2014-2018
  • Figure 111: UCaaS (Unified Communications as a Service) market and leading companies
  • Figure 112: The three types of clouds (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS)
  • Figure 113: Cloud computing industry structure
  • Figure 114: Growth potential for telcos in the SaaS and IaaS markets
  • Figure 115: Growth of the global enterprise cloud computing market, by segment, 2015-2020
  • Figure 116: The technologies within programmatic advertising
  • Figure 117: Expected market size and growth to 2020 for online ad sub-markets and competition levels
  • Figure 118: Player shares of online advertising revenue, in 2015
  • Figure 119: Player shares of mobile advertising revenues, in 2015
  • Figure 120: Share of Facebook's advertising revenues between fixed and mobile, 2012-2015
  • Figure 121: Types of data gathered by telcos
  • Figure 122: Online advertising revenues worldwide and regional breakdown, 2010-2020 (Billion EUR)
  • Figure 123: Facebook's announcement on ad control tools and overriding ad block
  • Figure 124: Overview of mobile security solutions
  • Figure 125: Security in the mobile value chain
  • Figure 126: Global mobile security market (2015 - 2020)
  • Figure 127: Overview of digital identity technologies and solutions
  • Figure 128: Digital identity value chain
  • Figure 129: Types of digital identity services offered by telecom operators.
  • Figure 130: Global digital identity market (2016 - 2021)
  • Figure 131: Principle of a CDN
  • Figure 132: The video market
  • Figure 133 : Key uncertainties for 2025 scenarios
  • Figure 134: Examples of dominant Internet companies under each scenario
  • Figure 135: Key characteristics of the various scenarios
  • Figure 136: Google Fiber coverage
  • Figure 137: Orange store in Poland
  • Figure 138: Telcos' SDN/NFV deployments (as of August 2016)
  • Figure 139 : Role of OpenStack in telcos' projects
  • Figure 140: Advertising to share data with third parties
  • Figure 141: Ibbu platform
  • Figure 142: The DT Cloud VPN concept
  • Figure 143: Customer care portal
  • Figure 144: Example of online help for iPhone 6
  • Figure 145: Swisscom security offering
  • Figure 146: Swisscom customised advice in shop
  • Figure 147: Total digital and telco market forecast in 2016, and for the four scenarios in 2025
  • Figure 148: Share of telco revenues within total digital and telco markets in the four scenarios
  • Figure 149: Top 5 digital markets for telcos for the four scenarios
  • Figure 150: Revenues, EBITDA and FCF for the four scenarios in 2025 and for 2016

List of players studied

  • AT&T
  • BT
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Orange
  • Telefónica
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone

Slideshow contents

Context and stakes

  • Current telco economics
  • Telco assets to expand in digital technologies & services
  • Stakes for telcos
  • First reactions of telcos with 2020 plans

Digital markets

  • A large addressable market
  • Different options for telcos
  • Telcos assets to expand on digital markets
  • Telcos trailing behind currently on most markets

2025 scenarios

  • Major uncertainties
  • Four scenarios for 2025
  • Scenario characteristics

Impacts for telcos

  • Telcos' activities in 2025 - Digital products and services
  • Telcos' activities in 2025 - Traditional products and services
  • Digital markets in 2025
  • Telco economics in 2025
  • Telco economics in 2025
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