Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041
Materials opportunities, simplification, lightweighting, 3-5 photovoltaics,
solid state batteries, zero-emission range extenders, supercapacitors, wide bandgap,
graphene, aluminium, sun-tracking, heat pumps.
Fast charging is all the talk now but doubling then trebling the range is seismic. The world solves its problems by eliminating infrastructure. The 285 page IDTechEx report, "Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041" spells it out.
The report answers such questions as:
- Why is range improvement an ongoing, primary car battleground?
- What are the best ways of making affordable cars with 1000mile (1600km) range and when will it happen?
- What percentage of cars will have what best range 2021-2041?
- What percentage contributions from each technology and who leads?
- Detail on emerging simplification, lightweighting, solar bodywork, new components, batteries?
- What is the technology roadmap by year to achieving these ranges 2021-2041?
- Best ranges are currently achieved in different ways. How can we combine them?
- What other options will emerge from the research pipeline. When, from whom?
- What to believe about solid state batteries. Critically compare and predict?
- Decade of huge improvement in lithium-ion battery format, software, chemistry, cost. Detail and timing?
- What about supercapacitors, multifunctional composites, the two zero-emission range-extender options?
- Lessons from 30 different approaches from 30 vehicle companies appraised?
IDTechEx heavily discounts many promises, given the history of over-optimism, but it predicts strengthening demand for range, giving the many reasons why, and huge progress towards it. Learn how the technologies enabling long range bring other delights. Solar bodywork gives gentle users travel without ever using a charging station and the first get-you-home feature. If you drain the battery, you just wait and the body charges the car enough to get to a charger. Lightweighting aids acceleration and cost. The day is coming when there is no reason to buy a car that needs frequent charging.
Researched by multilingual PhD level IDTechEx analysts worldwide, the unique 285 page IDTechEx report, "Routes to 1000Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041" starts with an Executive Summary and Conclusions. Here you see the many reasons for increasing maximum range, the existing and the planned enabling technologies. Detailed infograms show trends, achievements, research pipeline with roadmaps 2021-2041. See when there will be wide availability of given long ranges and the percentage of cars with them. Quantified are the four primary contributors to widely-available range being 760 miles in 2031, up a startling 2.4 times on today. IDTechEx calculations are discounted by factoring in past over-promising by developers and OEMs and by deep analysis of technical and scaleup challenges and solutions ahead. For example, contrary to popular understanding, the next decade is not primarily about solid state batteries though they figure strongly in 2031-2041 forecasts and roadmaps presented for range extension.
Chapter 2 Introduction concerns perpetual cars, relevant smart city issues, geopolitical implications, iterative methodology for introducing range-extending technologies. A sensible starting point for the detail is Tesla, the world's most valuable auto company, because it got there largely by offering longest range and being exclusively focussed on battery-electric vehicles. Chapter 3 "Tesla Holistic Approach" describes how it has achieved range by many small things such as cable elimination, more efficient motors, low drag factor, best batteries. See how it will go much further with massive simplification beyond those giant aluminium diecastings. Read its advice on how to design motors.
Then come chapters on the technologies emerging with many new examples. Chapter 4 is on simplification and lightweighting to increase range. See in-wheel and eAxle motors with integrated power electronics, voltage increase shrinking cables and motors, structural energy storage, in-mold, 3D, transparent and edit-able electronics and electrics, merging components, new battery-cooling achievements, multi-functional composites. This is a 20 year view including Rivian, VW Group and other innovators. It is supported by a detailed jargon buster at the start of the report and by company profiles.
Chapter 5 concerns solar cars with increased range. This just got serious with major moves by Hyundai, Tesla, Toyota, VW Group and other giants plus startups selling solar vehicles, not just dreaming. How did Sono Motors get over 13,000 orders by emphasising all-over solar? The many solar formats such as film-wrap or load-bearing are critically appraised and the roadmaps and benefits are compared now and in future, even unfolding, sun tracking and super-efficient versions. Chapter 6 dives into the chemistries with many actual examples of single crystal silicon, CIGS and GaAs on cars, comparison charts, edit-able, multijunction and other options even metamaterial-boosting and comparison of solar cars that never plug in.
The 26 pages of chapter 7 deeply examine batteries and supercapacitors increasing range. Here is the structural battery, module elimination, potential disruptors to lithium-ion quantified and criticised, questioning trumpeted solid-state car batteries promised in cars 2024-6. See academic figures for energy density improvement by chemistry into the future then IDTechEx prediction of commercially available energy density by year. Chapter 8 presents range increases from future thermal management. Chapter 9 gives 20 company profiles each accompanied by SWOT analysis. This focuses on what they are doing to extend car ranges.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
- 1.1. Purpose of this report
- 1.2. The race is on. Why?
- 1.3. Primary conclusions: general
- 1.4. Primary conclusions: long-range technology options
- 1.5. Routes to more energy/ longer range by harvesting external energy
- 1.6. Routes to more energy/ longer range by zero-emission range extenders
- 1.7. Routes to more energy/ longer range by new components
- 1.8. Routes to more energy/ longer range by vehicle design and materials
- 1.9. Market forecasts and technology timelines for long range BEVs 2021-2041
- 1.9.1. New range-extending technology options widely adopted 2021-2041
- 1.9.2. When several manufacturers mass produce EPA/WLTP long range BEV cars 2021-2041
- 1.9.3. Commercialisation timeline for edit-able electronics 2020-2041
- 1.9.4. Application roadmap of perovskite photovoltaics
- 1.10. Market forecast for long range premium BEV cars including Tesla
- 1.10.1. Number of long range units sold globally by year as % of all cars 500 mile and 1000 mile range 2021-2041
- 1.10.2. Global photovoltaic technology share $bn 2041 for all markets including cars
- 2.1. Perpetual cars
- 2.2. Coping with the red-hot city donut
- 2.3. Major geopolitical implications
- 2.4. Global differences
- 2.5. No - not fuel cells
- 2.6. Trend to larger more power-hungry cars
- 2.7. Progress now
- 2.8. Complexity reduced
- 2.9. Increased range means limit the increase in parts
- 2.10. Iterative improvement
- 2.11. Solar is very powerful
- 2.12. Solar car patents
- 2.13. New battery materials increase range
3. TESLA HOLISTIC APPROACH
- 3.1. Overview
- 3.2. Tesla holistic approach
- 3.3. Tesla structural battery and next chemistries and processes
- 3.4. Tailored battery chemistries
- 3.5. Tesla Model 3 and Y greatly simplified by large diecasting
- 3.6. Tesla autonomy simplification - no radar or lidar
- 3.7. Tesla motor designs - performance with range
4. SIMPLIFICATION, EFFICIENCY, LIGHTWEIGHTING TO INCREASE RANGE
- 4.1. Overview
- 4.2. Improving and integrating motors to increase range
- 4.2.1. eAxles integrate many components
- 4.2.2. Controls integrated with motors
- 4.2.3. In-wheel motor systems replace many parts
- 4.2.4. Less motor cooling increases range
- 4.2.5. Voltage increase improves range
- 4.3. Thermal management can increase range
- 4.4. Merging aircon compressor and motor
- 4.5. Power cable weight reduction: Aluminium graphene, high voltage, intentions, issues
- 4.6. Metamaterials and metal patterning for simplification and lightweighting
- 4.7. Multifunctional composites
- 4.8. Structural electronics
- 4.9. Routes to self-healing composite parts
- 4.10. 3D electronics, electrics, optics, magnetics
- 4.10.1. 3D printing, In-Mold Structural Electronics™
- 4.10.2. Edit-able electronic and electric smart materials
- 4.11. Transparent electronics and electrics
- 4.11.1. Overview
- 4.11.2. How transparent and translucent materials in cars increase range and more
- 4.11.3. RadarGlass™
- 4.11.4. SmartMesh™ transparent heater wrap increasing range 6%
- 4.11.5. Conclusions
- 4.12. Structural batteries and supercapacitors
5. SOLAR CARS WITH INCREASED RANGE
- 5.1. Basics
- 5.1.1. Definitions and history
- 5.1.2. Amount of range increase by solar car bodywork
- 5.1.3. Benchmarking
- 5.2. Tesla solar Cybertruck and alternatives
- 5.3. Mainstream solar cars and car-like vehicles
- 5.3.1. Aptera solar car
- 5.3.2. Economia Pakistan
- 5.3.3. Fisker USA
- 5.3.4. Fraunhofer ISE Germany
- 5.3.5. Hyundai-Kia Korea
- 5.3.6. Karma USA no longer
- 5.3.7. Lightyear Netherlands
- 5.3.8. Manipal IT India
- 5.3.9. Sono Motors Germany
- 5.3.10. Toyota Japan
- 5.3.11. Stella Lux, Stella Era, Stella Vie Netherlands
- 5.4. Conclusions
6. PHOTOVOLTAIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES
- 6.1. New geometry can greatly increase range
- 6.2. Choice of chemistry
- 6.3. Cell geometries of transparent photovoltaics
- 6.4. Efficiency and affordability
- 6.5. What is fitted on satellites appears on cars later
- 6.6. Single junction PV options beyond silicon
- 6.7. scSi PV on vehicles
- 6.8. CIGS PV on vehicles
- 6.9. Solar racers show the future - triple junction lll-V, solar on sides
- 6.10. GaAs PV on vehicles
- 6.11. Leading solar car specifications: Sono, Lightyear and research by Toyota
- 6.12. Potential for multi-junction solar on cars
- 6.13. Photovoltaics progresses to become paint
- 6.14. Materials problems and opportunities being pursued
- 6.14.1. Overview
- 6.14.2. CIGS
- 6.14.3. Perovskite photovoltaics overlayers and transparent film
- 6.14.4. lll-V materials
- 6.14.5. Metamaterial boosts photovoltaic cooling and capture increasing range
- 6.14.6. Examples of EIEV technologies in cars
7. BATTERIES AND SUPERCAPACITORS IMPROVING RANGE
- 7.1. New geometry can greatly increase range
- 7.2. Battery cell improvement roadmap
- 7.3. Potential disruptors to Li-ion
- 7.4. Academic figures on energy density improvement
- 7.5. Increasing BEV battery cell energy density
- 7.6. Increasing EV battery cell specific energy
- 7.7. Extrapolating improvements to energy density and specific energy
- 7.8. Improvements to cell energy density and specific energy
- 7.9. Prototype and targeted improvements to cell energy density and specific energy
- 7.10. Commentary on improving cell energy densities
- 7.11. Example: Harvard University claim breakthrough in 2021
- 7.12. IDTechEx calculations
- 7.13. IDTechEx energy density calculations - by cathode
- 7.14. Energy density improvements from silicon
- 7.15. Next generation cathodes
- 7.16. Cell design to increase energy densities
- 7.17. How high can you go with 'conventional' electrodes?
- 7.18. How high can you go with next gen materials?
- 7.19. Discussion of outlook for Li-ion energy density improvement
- 7.20. Timeline and outlook for Li-ion energy densities
- 7.21. Many claimed advances - Samsung and KIST examples
- 7.22. Concluding remarks
8. IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT ON RANGE
- 8.1. Range Calculations
- 8.2. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control
- 8.3. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control
- 8.4. Model Comparison with Ambient Temperature
- 8.5. Model Comparison with Climate Control
- 8.6. Summary
- 8.7. Holistic Vehicle Thermal Management
- 8.8. Technology Timeline
- 8.9. PTC vs Heat Pump
- 8.10. Recent EVs with Heat Pumps
- 8.11. Heat Pumps for BEVs Forecast
- 8.12. Further Innovations
- 8.13. Advantages of Sophisticated Thermal Management
- 8.14. Thermal Management Advanced Control: Key Players and Technologies
9. 20 COMPANY PROFILES WITH SWOT ANALYSIS
- 9.1. Applied Electric Vehicles Australia
- 9.2. Dezhou China
- 9.3. Evovelo Spain
- 9.4. Estrema Italy
- 9.5. I-FEVS Italy
- 9.6. Jiangte Joylong Automobile China
- 9.7. Lightyear Netherlands
- 9.8. LimCar ElettraCity-2 Italy
- 9.9. Mahle Germany
- 9.10. Midsummer Sweden
- 9.11. Nidec Japan
- 9.12. Nio China
- 9.13. Schaeffler Germany
- 9.14. Sono Motors Germany
- 9.15. Squad Mobility Netherlands
- 9.16. Sunnyclist Greece
- 9.17. Swift Solar USA
- 9.18. Teijin Japan
- 9.19. Visedo Finland
- 9.20. Zoop Turkey