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1,000마일(1,600km) 배터리 전기 자동차로 가는 길 (2021-2041년)

Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041

리서치사 IDTechEx Ltd.
발행일 2021년 06월 상품 코드 1009395
페이지 정보 영문 297 Slides
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1,000마일(1,600km) 배터리 전기 자동차로 가는 길 (2021-2041년) Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041
발행일 : 2021년 06월 페이지 정보 : 영문 297 Slides

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

현재는 급속 충전이 화제의 중심이지만, 시장 규모가 두 배 이상 증가하면, 이용 거리를 확대하는 것이 중요해질 것입니다. 세계는 인프라를 제거함으로써 문제를 해결합니다. 본 보고서는 1천 마일(1,600km) 배터리 전기차로 가는길" 보고서를 통해 이 시장에 대해 분석하였습니다.

이 보고서는 다음의 질문에 대해 해답을 제시합니다.

    - 왜 거리 개선이 주요 자동차 업계의 주요 경쟁 요인이 되었나?
    - 1,000마일(1,600km) 범위의 저렴한 자동차를 만드는 가장 좋은 방법은 무엇이며, 언제 가능할까?
    - 2021-2041년 기간 중 어느 정도의 업체가 이 범위가 가능할까?
    - 각 기술의 기여율은 몇 퍼센트이며 누가 선두를 달리고 있는가?
    - 새롭게 등장하는 단순화, 경량화, 태양열 차체, 새로운 구성 요소, 배터리에 대한 세부 정보는?
    - 2021-2041년 동안 이 범위를 위한 기술 로드맵은 연도별로 어떻게 수립되었는가?
    - 최상의 범위는 현재 다양한 방법으로 달성됩니다. 어떻게 결합할 수 있을까?
    - 연구 파이프라인에서 어떤 다른 선택사항이 나올 것인가?
    - 고정형 배터리에 대한 평가는?
    - 슈퍼커패시터, 다기능 복합체, 두 가지 제로에미션 레인지 익스텐더 옵션은?
    - 30개 자동차 회사의 30개 접근 방식


1. 주요 요약과 결론

  • 1.1. 보고서의 목적
  • 1.2. 경쟁의 시작
  • 1.3. 일차적인 결론: 일반
  • 1.4. 일차적인 결론: 장거리 범위 기술의 옵션
  • 1.5. 외부 에너지 수확에 의한 더 많은 에너지/장거리 전략
  • 1.6. 제로에미션 범위 확대에 의한 더 많은 에너지/ 장거리 전략
  • 1.7. 새로운 부품에 의한 더 많은 에너지/장거리 전략
  • 1.8. 차량 설계와 소재에 의한 더 많은 에너지/장거리 전략
  • 1.9. 긴 이용 거리의 BEV를 위한 시장 전망과 기술 2021-2041
  • 1.10. 테슬라를 포함한 장거리 프리미엄 BEV를 위한 시장 전망

2. 소개

3. 테슬라 전체론적인 접근방식

4. 단순화, 효율성, 경량화 - 이용거리 확대를 위한 전략

5. 솔라(Solar) 자동차

6. 태양광 자동차 기술

JYH 21.06.14

Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041
Materials opportunities, simplification, lightweighting, 3-5 photovoltaics,
solid state batteries, zero-emission range extenders, supercapacitors, wide bandgap,
graphene, aluminium, sun-tracking, heat pumps.

Fast charging is all the talk now but doubling then trebling the range is seismic. The world solves its problems by eliminating infrastructure. The 285 page IDTechEx report, "Routes to 1000 Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041" spells it out.

The report answers such questions as:

  • Why is range improvement an ongoing, primary car battleground?
  • What are the best ways of making affordable cars with 1000mile (1600km) range and when will it happen?
  • What percentage of cars will have what best range 2021-2041?
  • What percentage contributions from each technology and who leads?
  • Detail on emerging simplification, lightweighting, solar bodywork, new components, batteries?
  • What is the technology roadmap by year to achieving these ranges 2021-2041?
  • Best ranges are currently achieved in different ways. How can we combine them?
  • What other options will emerge from the research pipeline. When, from whom?
  • What to believe about solid state batteries. Critically compare and predict?
  • Decade of huge improvement in lithium-ion battery format, software, chemistry, cost. Detail and timing?
  • What about supercapacitors, multifunctional composites, the two zero-emission range-extender options?
  • Lessons from 30 different approaches from 30 vehicle companies appraised?

IDTechEx heavily discounts many promises, given the history of over-optimism, but it predicts strengthening demand for range, giving the many reasons why, and huge progress towards it. Learn how the technologies enabling long range bring other delights. Solar bodywork gives gentle users travel without ever using a charging station and the first get-you-home feature. If you drain the battery, you just wait and the body charges the car enough to get to a charger. Lightweighting aids acceleration and cost. The day is coming when there is no reason to buy a car that needs frequent charging.

Researched by multilingual PhD level IDTechEx analysts worldwide, the unique 285 page IDTechEx report, "Routes to 1000Mile (1600km) Battery Electric Cars 2021-2041" starts with an Executive Summary and Conclusions. Here you see the many reasons for increasing maximum range, the existing and the planned enabling technologies. Detailed infograms show trends, achievements, research pipeline with roadmaps 2021-2041. See when there will be wide availability of given long ranges and the percentage of cars with them. Quantified are the four primary contributors to widely-available range being 760 miles in 2031, up a startling 2.4 times on today. IDTechEx calculations are discounted by factoring in past over-promising by developers and OEMs and by deep analysis of technical and scaleup challenges and solutions ahead. For example, contrary to popular understanding, the next decade is not primarily about solid state batteries though they figure strongly in 2031-2041 forecasts and roadmaps presented for range extension.

Chapter 2 Introduction concerns perpetual cars, relevant smart city issues, geopolitical implications, iterative methodology for introducing range-extending technologies. A sensible starting point for the detail is Tesla, the world's most valuable auto company, because it got there largely by offering longest range and being exclusively focussed on battery-electric vehicles. Chapter 3 "Tesla Holistic Approach" describes how it has achieved range by many small things such as cable elimination, more efficient motors, low drag factor, best batteries. See how it will go much further with massive simplification beyond those giant aluminium diecastings. Read its advice on how to design motors.

Then come chapters on the technologies emerging with many new examples. Chapter 4 is on simplification and lightweighting to increase range. See in-wheel and eAxle motors with integrated power electronics, voltage increase shrinking cables and motors, structural energy storage, in-mold, 3D, transparent and edit-able electronics and electrics, merging components, new battery-cooling achievements, multi-functional composites. This is a 20 year view including Rivian, VW Group and other innovators. It is supported by a detailed jargon buster at the start of the report and by company profiles.

Chapter 5 concerns solar cars with increased range. This just got serious with major moves by Hyundai, Tesla, Toyota, VW Group and other giants plus startups selling solar vehicles, not just dreaming. How did Sono Motors get over 13,000 orders by emphasising all-over solar? The many solar formats such as film-wrap or load-bearing are critically appraised and the roadmaps and benefits are compared now and in future, even unfolding, sun tracking and super-efficient versions. Chapter 6 dives into the chemistries with many actual examples of single crystal silicon, CIGS and GaAs on cars, comparison charts, edit-able, multijunction and other options even metamaterial-boosting and comparison of solar cars that never plug in.

The 26 pages of chapter 7 deeply examine batteries and supercapacitors increasing range. Here is the structural battery, module elimination, potential disruptors to lithium-ion quantified and criticised, questioning trumpeted solid-state car batteries promised in cars 2024-6. See academic figures for energy density improvement by chemistry into the future then IDTechEx prediction of commercially available energy density by year. Chapter 8 presents range increases from future thermal management. Chapter 9 gives 20 company profiles each accompanied by SWOT analysis. This focuses on what they are doing to extend car ranges.

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  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. The race is on. Why?
  • 1.3. Primary conclusions: general
  • 1.4. Primary conclusions: long-range technology options
  • 1.5. Routes to more energy/ longer range by harvesting external energy
  • 1.6. Routes to more energy/ longer range by zero-emission range extenders
  • 1.7. Routes to more energy/ longer range by new components
  • 1.8. Routes to more energy/ longer range by vehicle design and materials
  • 1.9. Market forecasts and technology timelines for long range BEVs 2021-2041
    • 1.9.1. New range-extending technology options widely adopted 2021-2041
    • 1.9.2. When several manufacturers mass produce EPA/WLTP long range BEV cars 2021-2041
    • 1.9.3. Commercialisation timeline for edit-able electronics 2020-2041
    • 1.9.4. Application roadmap of perovskite photovoltaics
  • 1.10. Market forecast for long range premium BEV cars including Tesla
    • 1.10.1. Number of long range units sold globally by year as % of all cars 500 mile and 1000 mile range 2021-2041
    • 1.10.2. Global photovoltaic technology share $bn 2041 for all markets including cars


  • 2.1. Perpetual cars
  • 2.2. Coping with the red-hot city donut
  • 2.3. Major geopolitical implications
  • 2.4. Global differences
  • 2.5. No - not fuel cells
  • 2.6. Trend to larger more power-hungry cars
  • 2.7. Progress now
  • 2.8. Complexity reduced
  • 2.9. Increased range means limit the increase in parts
  • 2.10. Iterative improvement
  • 2.11. Solar is very powerful
  • 2.12. Solar car patents
  • 2.13. New battery materials increase range


  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Tesla holistic approach
  • 3.3. Tesla structural battery and next chemistries and processes
  • 3.4. Tailored battery chemistries
  • 3.5. Tesla Model 3 and Y greatly simplified by large diecasting
  • 3.6. Tesla autonomy simplification - no radar or lidar
  • 3.7. Tesla motor designs - performance with range


  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Improving and integrating motors to increase range
    • 4.2.1. eAxles integrate many components
    • 4.2.2. Controls integrated with motors
    • 4.2.3. In-wheel motor systems replace many parts
    • 4.2.4. Less motor cooling increases range
    • 4.2.5. Voltage increase improves range
  • 4.3. Thermal management can increase range
  • 4.4. Merging aircon compressor and motor
  • 4.5. Power cable weight reduction: Aluminium graphene, high voltage, intentions, issues
  • 4.6. Metamaterials and metal patterning for simplification and lightweighting
  • 4.7. Multifunctional composites
  • 4.8. Structural electronics
  • 4.9. Routes to self-healing composite parts
  • 4.10. 3D electronics, electrics, optics, magnetics
    • 4.10.1. 3D printing, In-Mold Structural Electronics™
    • 4.10.2. Edit-able electronic and electric smart materials
  • 4.11. Transparent electronics and electrics
    • 4.11.1. Overview
    • 4.11.2. How transparent and translucent materials in cars increase range and more
    • 4.11.3. RadarGlass™
    • 4.11.4. SmartMesh™ transparent heater wrap increasing range 6%
    • 4.11.5. Conclusions
  • 4.12. Structural batteries and supercapacitors


  • 5.1. Basics
    • 5.1.1. Definitions and history
    • 5.1.2. Amount of range increase by solar car bodywork
    • 5.1.3. Benchmarking
  • 5.2. Tesla solar Cybertruck and alternatives
  • 5.3. Mainstream solar cars and car-like vehicles
    • 5.3.1. Aptera solar car
    • 5.3.2. Economia Pakistan
    • 5.3.3. Fisker USA
    • 5.3.4. Fraunhofer ISE Germany
    • 5.3.5. Hyundai-Kia Korea
    • 5.3.6. Karma USA no longer
    • 5.3.7. Lightyear Netherlands
    • 5.3.8. Manipal IT India
    • 5.3.9. Sono Motors Germany
    • 5.3.10. Toyota Japan
    • 5.3.11. Stella Lux, Stella Era, Stella Vie Netherlands
  • 5.4. Conclusions


  • 6.1. New geometry can greatly increase range
  • 6.2. Choice of chemistry
  • 6.3. Cell geometries of transparent photovoltaics
  • 6.4. Efficiency and affordability
  • 6.5. What is fitted on satellites appears on cars later
  • 6.6. Single junction PV options beyond silicon
  • 6.7. scSi PV on vehicles
  • 6.8. CIGS PV on vehicles
  • 6.9. Solar racers show the future - triple junction lll-V, solar on sides
  • 6.10. GaAs PV on vehicles
  • 6.11. Leading solar car specifications: Sono, Lightyear and research by Toyota
  • 6.12. Potential for multi-junction solar on cars
  • 6.13. Photovoltaics progresses to become paint
  • 6.14. Materials problems and opportunities being pursued
    • 6.14.1. Overview
    • 6.14.2. CIGS
    • 6.14.3. Perovskite photovoltaics overlayers and transparent film
    • 6.14.4. lll-V materials
    • 6.14.5. Metamaterial boosts photovoltaic cooling and capture increasing range
    • 6.14.6. Examples of EIEV technologies in cars


  • 7.1. New geometry can greatly increase range
  • 7.2. Battery cell improvement roadmap
  • 7.3. Potential disruptors to Li-ion
  • 7.4. Academic figures on energy density improvement
  • 7.5. Increasing BEV battery cell energy density
  • 7.6. Increasing EV battery cell specific energy
  • 7.7. Extrapolating improvements to energy density and specific energy
  • 7.8. Improvements to cell energy density and specific energy
  • 7.9. Prototype and targeted improvements to cell energy density and specific energy
  • 7.10. Commentary on improving cell energy densities
  • 7.11. Example: Harvard University claim breakthrough in 2021
  • 7.12. IDTechEx calculations
  • 7.13. IDTechEx energy density calculations - by cathode
  • 7.14. Energy density improvements from silicon
  • 7.15. Next generation cathodes
  • 7.16. Cell design to increase energy densities
  • 7.17. How high can you go with 'conventional' electrodes?
  • 7.18. How high can you go with next gen materials?
  • 7.19. Discussion of outlook for Li-ion energy density improvement
  • 7.20. Timeline and outlook for Li-ion energy densities
  • 7.21. Many claimed advances - Samsung and KIST examples
  • 7.22. Concluding remarks


  • 8.1. Range Calculations
  • 8.2. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control
  • 8.3. Impact of Ambient Temperature and Climate Control
  • 8.4. Model Comparison with Ambient Temperature
  • 8.5. Model Comparison with Climate Control
  • 8.6. Summary
  • 8.7. Holistic Vehicle Thermal Management
  • 8.8. Technology Timeline
  • 8.9. PTC vs Heat Pump
  • 8.10. Recent EVs with Heat Pumps
  • 8.11. Heat Pumps for BEVs Forecast
  • 8.12. Further Innovations
  • 8.13. Advantages of Sophisticated Thermal Management
  • 8.14. Thermal Management Advanced Control: Key Players and Technologies


  • 9.1. Applied Electric Vehicles Australia
  • 9.2. Dezhou China
  • 9.3. Evovelo Spain
  • 9.4. Estrema Italy
  • 9.5. I-FEVS Italy
  • 9.6. Jiangte Joylong Automobile China
  • 9.7. Lightyear Netherlands
  • 9.8. LimCar ElettraCity-2 Italy
  • 9.9. Mahle Germany
  • 9.10. Midsummer Sweden
  • 9.11. Nidec Japan
  • 9.12. Nio China
  • 9.13. Schaeffler Germany
  • 9.14. Sono Motors Germany
  • 9.15. Squad Mobility Netherlands
  • 9.16. Sunnyclist Greece
  • 9.17. Swift Solar USA
  • 9.18. Teijin Japan
  • 9.19. Visedo Finland
  • 9.20. Zoop Turkey
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