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세계의 전기버스 시장(2018-2029년) : 예측, 기술 로드맵, 기업 평가

Electric Buses 2019-2029: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment

리서치사 IDTechEx Ltd.
발행일 2019년 08월 상품 코드 235006
페이지 정보 영문 205 Slides
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세계의 전기버스 시장(2018-2029년) : 예측, 기술 로드맵, 기업 평가 Electric Buses 2019-2029: Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Company Assessment
발행일 : 2019년 08월 페이지 정보 : 영문 205 Slides

세계의 전기버스(Electric Buses) 시장에 대해 조사했으며, 세계의 대중교통 현황, 자동차 산업, 전기버스 역학, 주요 지역 및 국가의 전기버스 시장 상황과 판매 동향, 기술 동향과 전망, 주요 하이브리드 버스 제조업체 및 순전기버스 제조업체 개요 등의 정보를 정리하여 전해드립니다.

제1장 주요 요약 및 결론

제2장 서론

  • 번영, 주차, 서투른 계획
  • 세계 상황 : 대중교통
  • 구제 기술
    • 전기화, 자율주행, 셰어링
    • 시너지 효과
    • 4개 요소의 영향
    • 실패에 관계없이 일관성 있는 강력한 정책이 필요
  • 배기가스와 관련해서 무엇이 일어나고 있는가?
  • 전기버스 역학
  • 자동차 산업 분석
    • 세계의 자동차 생산대수
    • 신규 상용차 등록대수 또는 판매량은 거의 변화가 없지만 동아시아에서 강력한 성장
    • 세계 자동차 제조업체 순위 : 생산대수별
    • 대형 버스 판매 기록은 미약한 성장
    • 주요 버스 제조업체 : 대수별

제3장 중국의 전기 운송 버스, 승합 자동차, 셔틀

  • Yutong과 중국의 버스 현황
  • 중국은 최첨단 기술과 버스 기술을 채용
  • 중국 전기버스의 광범위한 기술 발전
  • 중국의 중대형 버스 판매
  • 중국의 하이브리드 버스 판매와 뉴스
  • 중국의 E-bus 판매대수 : Yutong, Zhongtong, BYD가 강력한 성장
  • 실적 비교
  • 제13차 5개년 계획(하이브리드 버스 & 전기버스)
  • 중국의 충전소와 버스 지원금 비율
  • e-bikes 제한이 버스에 유리하게 작용
  • BYD : 세계적으로 가장 강한 인상을 남기고 있는 중국 전기버스 제조업체

제4장 인도의 전기 운송 버스, 승합 자동차, 셔틀

제5장 아메리카의 전기 운송 버스, 승합 자동차, 셔틀

제6장 북미

제7장 유럽

제8장 통학버스

  • 북미
  • 중국 : 큰 가능성, 그러나 아직 많은 것은 일어나지 않아
  • 통학버스 : 미국과 중국 비교

제9장 전기버스 기술과 미래

  • 파워트레인
  • 하이브리드 버스 밸류체인
  • 순수 전기 동력전달장치는 더 간단화되고, 많은 Tier 1 공급업체를 회피
  • 순전기자동차에서도 전력용 전자공학은 배터리 이상으로 중요해져
  • Structural electronics가 버스에 도입
  • 많은 설계 솔루션은 같은 종류의 버스를 지속시켜
  • UITP 및 MB : 버스 기술 요약
  • 더 소형인 버스
  • 자율주행 버스 및 버스-택시
  • 버스용 전동 트랙션 모터의 배경
  • 트랙션 배터리
  • 하이브리드 버스용 트랙션 슈퍼커패시터
  • 순전기버스용 트랙션 슈퍼커패시터
  • 소프트웨어 및 서비스 : Citymapper 스마트 버스 사례
  • 자율주행
  • 배터리 충전
  • 에너지 자급 : 버스 주행거리 증가
  • 급진적인 혁신
  • 에너지 자립형 전기자동차 : EIV

제10장 하이브리드 버스 제조업체 86개사

제11장 순전기버스 제조업체 80개사

LSH 17.07.25

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

"As people move to cities, car sales peak but electric bus sales rise to over $275 billion by 2029."

Electric Buses Reinvented: $279 Billion Market.

This report of over 200 information-packed pages is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx report on electric buses. Prepared by respected analysts, it benchmarks buses and other forms of electric vehicle and technologies to reveal the tipping points and radical innovations arriving soon. Daimler and Toyota have recently instituted crash programs on pure electric vehicles: China has done a U turn on hybrid buses that do not plug in. Implications? See the league table of largest EV makers and how more and more of them make buses. The killer blow for new vehicles is lower price up front: see when each bus type hits this.

Technologies are carefully explained with pros and cons with a unique technology roadmap to 2038. Only in this report do you see the full picture of where we are headed - even to energy independent buses (one already on sale) and then energy positive buses (we propose a design). See how they will be leveraging technologies going commercial next year outside the bus industry. Learn how the bus is being reinvented as many other things from the trolley bus that works pure electric where there is no catenary to the traffic-straddling bus and many forms of road train from "Bus Rapid Transit" to "Autonomous Rail Transit" that does not use rails. Autonomy is a focus of the report, particularly explaining the design and future of the small merged car/taxi/buses being trialled - another new category.

In 2010 virtually all new buses had an internal combustion engine yet 20 years later very few will. Why? Implications for the value chain? As if that is not enough, most componentry, systems and bodywork is being radically changed. For example what comes after the monocoque body now replacing the chassis? Why is power electronics becoming more important than batteries? In this business, simply extrapolating the past is useless.

The approach is creative and predictive way beyond the blinkered view given by traditional box ticking market research. Ongoing Interviews are carried out globally by PhD level multilingual technologists. The Executive Summary and Conclusions clarifies the extreme melodrama of what is now happening. New infograms explain why car sales will peak globally and how buses benefit. Forecasts for 2019-2029 bus type and region explain major regional differences. Learn why 30 years of fuel cell bus trials continue whereas almost every type of bus is now available commercially as pure electric and hybrid without a fuel cell. Understand benefits and the future.

The Introduction explains how the move to cities boosts buses: many detailed graphs are presented. Learn efficiency of different modes in cities. Four key factors are shown to drive change in type and number of buses bought to 2040. See the issues of energy use, emissions, cost savings and progress to energy independence. See statistics for the commercial vehicle and bus business.

Chapter 3 China analyses its dominance and global rollout of electric buses. Yutong and BYD are profiled and others compared. Chapter 4 India appraises its recent decision to replace 150,000 diesel buses very quickly. Chapters 5 and 6 are Americas. Chapter 7 Europe.

Chapter 8 is School Buses: newly significant - numbers in the USA are large and, in China, potentially large. Statistics reveal many strong reasons for going autonomous. Chapter 9 is a tour de force of the technologies and their rapid change with reasons, predictions and more. Fuel cells, structural electronics, many new forms of power electronics, more motors per vehicle, autonomy, energy harvesting, supercapacitors replacing batteries, new charging options, software and services- it is all here with new examples.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. Why adopt buses?
  • 1.3. Types of bus currently on sale
  • 1.4. New types of bus entering the market are autonomous
  • 1.5. Buses population worldwide by types 2025
  • 1.6. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
  • 1.7. Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
  • 1.8. Electric bus leadership: focus on pure electric now
  • 1.9. China buses go global: cost advantages
  • 1.10. China cost advantage facilitates market share
  • 1.11. Timelines
    • 1.11.1. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
    • 1.11.2. Pure electric bus delivery completion dates 2020-2040
    • 1.11.3. Predicting the electric bus killer blow of lower up-front price 2020-2040
  • 1.12. Electric bus market forecasts worldwide
    • 1.12.1. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 number (thousand)
    • 1.12.2. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 unit price $k
    • 1.12.3. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 $ billion market value
    • 1.12.4. Electric bus number by region 2029
  • 1.13. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
  • 1.14. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
  • 1.15. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
  • 1.16. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022
  • 1.17. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024
  • 1.18. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026
  • 1.19. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028
  • 1.20. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030
  • 1.21. Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
  • 1.22. Record bus range
  • 1.23. NTU Singapore and Volvo unveil world's first full size, autonomous electric bus

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Prosperity, parking and bad planning
  • 2.2. Global situation: public transport
    • 2.2.1. Cities lead
    • 2.2.2. Dense cities use most public transport and cities are getting denser
    • 2.2.3. On-road transport in cities (where 80% of people will live) mainly buses: small buses now a focus
  • 2.3. More ambitious EV objectives drive radically new bus technologies
    • 2.3.1. Overview
    • 2.3.2. Multi-purposing
    • 2.3.3. Robotics
    • 2.3.4. Mobility as a Service MaaS
    • 2.3.5. Charging with vehicle moving and even energy independence
  • 2.4. EV key enabling technologies for 2019-2030
    • 2.4.1. Structural electronics
    • 2.4.2. Electric motor-generators
    • 2.4.3. Here come electrically smart structures
    • 2.4.4. New components and fewer components from electrification and structural electronics
    • 2.4.5. Traction battery systems including and battery charging and swapping
    • 2.4.6. Energy harvesting and regeneration
    • 2.4.7. Supercapacitors
    • 2.4.8. Fuel cells
    • 2.4.9. Power electronics
    • 2.4.10. Low power electronics, sensors and sensor fusion
    • 2.4.11. Software, connectivity, artificial intelligence
    • 2.4.12. How nine key enabling technologies are improving to serve the primary needs
  • 2.5. What is happening about emissions?
    • 2.5.1. Cheating but improving
    • 2.5.2. Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
  • 2.6. Electric bus dynamics
  • 2.7. Anatomy of the automotive industry
    • 2.7.1. Global automotive production 2017
    • 2.7.2. New commercial vehicle registrations or sales are mainly static but strong growth in East Asia
  • 2.8. FAME India
  • 2.9. Charger standardisation: bus/truck commonality

3. CHINA ELECTRIC TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 3.1. Yutong and the story of buses in China
    • 3.1.1. History
  • 3.2. BYD
    • 3.2.1. Breadth and growth
    • 3.2.2. New car and Skyrail for 2019
    • 3.2.3. Innovation, rapid growth globally
  • 3.3. China leapfrogging in adoption and some bus technology
  • 3.4. Broad technical advances in electric buses in China
  • 3.5. E-bus sales numbers China 2016: Yutong, Zhongtong and BYD grow strongly
  • 3.6. Performance in 2017 compared
  • 3.7. Thirteenth Five Year Plan (2015-2020) (Hybrid & Electric) Buses
  • 3.8. Restriction of e-bikes helps buses
  • 3.9. BYD: the Chinese electric bus maker with the most impressive global rollout
  • 3.10. Golden Dragon

4. INDIA TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 4.1. Watch India: the most ambitious switch of all
  • 4.2. India 2018: orders, uncertainty and advances

5. AMERICAS TRANSIT BUS, COACH, SHUTTLE

  • 5.1. Latin America - large numbers

6. NORTH AMERICA

  • 6.1. Unique mix
  • 6.2. Example of pure electric bus leadership: Proterra

7. EUROPE

  • 7.1. Example of excellence: Solaris Bus and Coach Poland
  • 7.2. Visedo PowerDRUM
  • 7.3. ASSURED project for fast charging
  • 7.4. BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging
  • 7.5. ADL/BYD double decker
  • 7.6. Optare

8. SCHOOL BUSES

  • 8.1. North America
    • 8.1.1. Overview
    • 8.1.2. School buses choking children to death, unnecessary fires
    • 8.1.3. US school bus statistics 2018
    • 8.1.4. Commentary
    • 8.1.5. Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
    • 8.1.6. Pure electric powertrains needed: longer life, much less maintenance compared to current diesel shown below
    • 8.1.7. US leading school bus manufacturers
  • 8.2. China: big potential, not much happening yet
  • 8.3. School buses: USA and China compared
  • 8.4. School buses: news, launches and initiatives

9. ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS FUTURE

  • 9.1.1. Comparison of powertrain options
  • 9.1.2. Batteries Assessment by Professor Pietro Perlo
  • 9.1.3. Exit from fuel cell vehicles as pure electric vehicles "steal their clothes"
  • 9.2. Value chain of hybrid buses
  • 9.3. Pure electric powertrain is simpler and later bypasses many Tier One suppliers
  • 9.4. Power electronics becomes more important than batteries even in pure electric vehicles
  • 9.5. Structural electronics will come to buses
  • 9.6. Many design solutions persist for the same types of bus
  • 9.7. UITP and MB summary of bus technologies
  • 9.8. Here come more small buses
  • 9.9. Autonomous bus and bus-taxi
    • 9.9.1. Overview
    • 9.9.2. 6POD concept
    • 9.9.3. Large smart windows needed
  • 9.10. Electric traction motors for buses in context
    • 9.10.1. Overview
    • 9.10.2. Example BYD
    • 9.10.3. No differential or prop shaft
    • 9.10.4. Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
    • 9.10.5. Equipmake PM spoke motor for buses in 2020
  • 9.11. Traction batteries
  • 9.12. Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
  • 9.13. Traction supercapacitors in buses
  • 9.14. Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
  • 9.15. Software and services: example Citymapper Smartbus
  • 9.16. Autonomy
    • 9.16.1. Fully autonomous: buses or taxis, rarely privately owned cars
    • 9.16.2. Hardware replaced by software & content
    • 9.16.3. Hype curve for autonomy today
    • 9.16.4. Autonomous shuttles in Switzerland
    • 9.16.5. Gateway autonomous bus UK
    • 9.16.6. IBM Olli bus: autonomous with many services
    • 9.16.7. Huge scope for media
  • 9.17. Charging the battery
    • 9.17.1. Overview
    • 9.17.2. Example: ABB TOSA: overhead top up means less battery
    • 9.17.3. Contactless charging
  • 9.18. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
  • 9.19. Radical innovation
    • 9.19.1. Transit Elevated Bus TEV: scrapped but interesting
    • 9.19.2. Taxi-car-bus ride sharing has huge benefit
  • 9.20. Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV
  • 9.20.1. Disruptive
    • 9.20.2. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
    • 9.20.3. Energy positive large buses will come

10. 90 HYBRID BUS MANUFACTURERS

11. 86 PURE ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

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