Trillions of dollars on reinvented energy, food, water, transport, sensing, multipurpose materials
SpaceX, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Baidu, Toyota, Tesla, Hyundai, Virgin, LG and other strong investors are involved in smart cities in ways you may not expect and the biggest commitments are not always from the largest countries. This smart cities market report explains. Uniquely, the 320 page report analyses and forecasts what it identifies as the major disruptive opportunities for radically new city designs and their new materials, equipment and systems.
The approach is broad because it is an IDTechEx overview "master" report. There are a host of IDTechEx drill-down reports cascading from it specifically on vertical farming in cities, robotaxis, zero-emission desalination for cities, energy independent cities and so on.
This smart cities market report involves 151 companies studied that will serve over 500 cities that are seeking to be smart. It is an antidote to the traditional study obsessing about the information technology aspect and little more. Emphasis is the present and the 20 year future but with many timelines to 2050, commercial opportunities and technology trends. The presentation is easily understood because it mostly consists of new infograms, tables, graphs, diagrams and pictures with pages typically packed with new information and insights. The priority is business opportunities.
IDTechEx has been studying these topics for 21 years, lecturing and consulting globally on them. Its methodology involves original interpretation based on its PhD level analysts across the world doing ongoing interviews in local languages, consulting, attending events and so on. The report was mostly researched in 2020.
What this report provides:
1. Assessment and comparison of the most ambitious, appropriate and well-funded smart city projects.
2. Identification of the largest new technology opportunities and most impressive participants and projects.
3. How smart cities can be energy, food and water independent even in the sea or desert. How they will eliminate much infrastructure and pollution and adopt radically new transport and smart buildings. The city design, technologies and benefits involved.
4. Quantification of global challenges that these new technologies will address such as killing the sea, rise in sea level, global warming, desertification, the move of people to cities, ageing farmers, high suicide rates.
5. Appraisal of promising technologies and equipment such as robot shuttles and floatavoltaics and caution about others such as electricity from road movement and premature launch of vertical take-off battery air taxis with reasons why.
6. Imaginative new ideas for smart city materials and hardware based on our appraisal of the latest multipurpose materials research. Learn such things as materials optically, electronically and electrically edit-able on arrival and appropriate advanced multipurpose composites. Why cities need flexible glass and transparent or magnetic concrete plus light-emitting, electronically-darkening, electricity-producing windows. It is all here.
Some of the company, technology assessments and timelines presented:
1. Reinvented transport being multi-purposed: robot shuttles, robot buses, Hyperloop, electric aircraft.
2. Ubiquitous new land, water, wind power for the planned all-electric, energy-independent city.
3. Integrated farming in cities for food independence - robot greenhouses, vertical farms, aquaculture, saline farming
4. Water provision in cities for independence - opportunities and integration such as solar desalination farming.
5. The $100 billion zero emission modular genset opportunity.
6. Multipurpose materials replacing dumb structures such as windows, walkways, vehicle bodywork.
7. New smart materials - formulations, composites, multifunctional. Research trends.
8. Ubiquitous sensor systems and information and communications technology advances as a large but not dominant opportunity.
9. Ten infograms of the city of the future and its technologies
10. Ten global maps of technologies and issues
35 detailed forecasts are presented through the report, including:
- Primary energy by type and peak fossil fuel dates
- Off-grid harvesting systems by technology
- Photovoltaic materials by technology, cost and location progression
- Solar ground surface cladding
- Smart glass
- Robot bus, robotaxi, robot shuttle, Hyperloop
- Vehicle robotic systems by autonomy level
- Electric light-commercial vehicles
- Automated cars
- Key robotic components
- Sensors by type
- Vertically farmed produce
- Wearable technology in 8 categories
- Multifunctional composites 4 graphs, one technology timeline
- Cultured meat grown in cities to replace living foodstock
- The $1.7 trillion 2041 new technology opportunity in smart cities by seven types
The smart cities market report layout is as follows:
1. Executive Summary and Conclusions. This Executive Summary and Conclusions is sufficient in itself with 30 important smart cities compared, 16 key conclusions on problems targeted by smart cities, 7 key conclusions on the primary new hardware technologies to be applied, the 30 most important forecasts.
2. Introduction to the challenges. This spans from desert cities planned in the USA and Arabian Gulf to cities planned in the sea and tackling local and global pollution.
3. Introduction to smart city solutions with detailed concepts by IDTechEx and others based on actual materials, equipment and systems research. Comparisons of smart city project objectives concentrating on the big changes such as technology for empowerment of the poor and disabled, elimination of sewerage, charging stations, sidewalks, traffic jams, accidents, provision of free transport, zero emission.
4. Energy independence by new forms of ubiquitous solar, wind and water power and new forms of energy storage in cities, arrival of self-powered vehicles, boats, aircraft.
5. Food independence from replacement of farms outside cities with zero-emission cultivated meat without animals, vertical farms, roof-top greenhouses, food growing integrated into human facilities, aquaculture and the new smart materials enabling it all.
6. Water independence by better conservation, micro farming, rain capture and treatment and zero-emission desalination without environmental damage from its effluent.
7. Smart transport for cities concentrating on what is new such as robot buses, robot shuttles, Hyperloop, solar aircraft and solar boats.
8. City cognitive infrastructure, sensor systems. What is possible. What is causing problems. Technologies such as sensor networks. This chapter is limited in scope to reflect relative importance.
9. Multifunctional composites. This closely examines what is newly possible and what will be possible, notably structural electronics, electrics, optics, magnetics.
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Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
- 1.1. Objectives and methodology of this report
- 1.2. What are smart cities?
- 1.2.1. Overview
- 1.2.2. City hierarchy and new objectives
- 1.3. Mounting problems in existing cities and some solutions
- 1.4. The new approach: simplification and smart hardware
- 1.4.1. Features abandoned to benefit cities 1920-2050
- 1.4.2. Infrastructure elimination enables dramatic new achievements
- 1.4.3. Enter smart materials, vehicles and infrastructure: multi-purpose
- 1.4.4. Infogram: some technologies in future zero-emission smart cities
- 1.4.5. Infogram: some companies transforming future zero-emission cities
- 1.5. Locations compared for six key smart city technologies
- 1.5.1. Babcock Ranch smart city in Florida
- 1.5.2. Fujisawa SST contrasts Montreal Underground City
- 1.5.3. Sustainable City Dubai
- 1.5.4. Woven City Japan
- 1.5.5. Neom Saudi Arabia
- 1.5.6. Smart Cities in India, China Belt and Road BRT initiative
- 1.6. Heroic new concepts emerge: sea cities, space
- 1.6.1. Reasons why
- 1.6.2. Self-sufficient ocean cities
- 1.6.3. Forest City Malaysia
- 1.6.4. United Plastic Nation
- 1.6.5. Sustainable desert living: Belmont Arizona
- 1.6.6. Colonising moon and Mars, flying cities
- 1.7. Who delivers smart city?
- 1.8. Primary conclusions: city issues
- 1.9. Comparison: 30 locations strongly applying 8 smart city technologies
- 1.10. Primary conclusions: Technology
- 1.11. Huge variety of smart materials opportunities in smart cities
- 1.12. Market forecasts
- 1.12.1. Primary energy 1980-2050
- 1.12.2. Off grid harvesting systems $ billion 2031 and 2041
- 1.12.3. Solar ground surface cladding $ billion 2021-2041
- 1.12.4. Smart glass $ million 2021-2041
- 1.12.5. Global photovoltaic technology share $bn % 2041
- 1.12.6. Global sensor market by industry $ billion 2021-2041
- 1.12.7. Sensors: intersecting market segments 2031
- 1.12.8. Sensors: growing importance of wearable, flexible, printed 2020-2030
- 1.12.9. Printed sensors global market 2020-2030
- 1.12.10. Market for water sensors $ million 2019-2030
- 1.12.11. Vertically farmed produce global market $million 2019-2030
- 1.12.12. Wearable technology global $ billion 2019-2030
- 1.12.13. Global market for cultured meat grown without animals $ million 2019-2030
- 1.12.14. Bus and robot shuttle global market number by type 2020-2040
- 1.12.15. Bus and robot shuttle global market number% by type 2020-2040
- 1.12.16. Market share Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy in buses projection by size 2020-2040
- 1.12.17. Global bus market by level of autonomy and projection by bus/ robot shuttle size 2018-2040
- 1.12.18. Autonomous bus and robot shuttle total market number by level of autonomy 2018-2040
- 1.12.19. Cost projection of pure electric bus and shuttle (minus autonomy) 2020-2040
- 1.12.20. Cost of autonomy $ 2019-2040
- 1.12.21. Forecast $ billion for all bus/shuttle sizes and levels of autonomy 2019-2040
- 1.12.22. Purpose-built robot shuttles and small-sized buses market $ billion 2019-2040
- 1.12.23. Total forecast $ billion (medium and large-sized buses) 2019-2040
- 1.12.24. Accumulated fleet size for autonomous buses + robot shuttles projected number 2018-2040
- 1.12.25. Service revenue forecast $ billion for autonomous buses and robot shuttles 2018-2040
- 1.12.26. Total revenue forecast autonomous bus and robot shuttle $ billion 2019-2040
- 1.12.27. Electric light commercial vehicle market $ billion 2019-2030
- 1.12.28. Autonomous passenger car forecast units global 2020-2040
- 1.12.29. LIDAR and RADAR value market for road vehicles
- 1.12.30. Radar market forecasts (2020-2040) in all levels of autonomy/ADAS in vehicles and trucks (market value)
- 1.12.31. Self-treating autonomous toilets $ billion 2021-2041
- 1.12.32. Hyperloop Forecast
2. INTRODUCTION TO THE CHALLENGES
- 2.1. Localism and the move to cities
- 2.2. Factors accelerating city growth and independence
- 2.2.1. Aging population
- 2.2.2. Wasting energy
- 2.3. Air pollution in cities
- 2.4. Killing the sea near cities
- 2.5. Cities drowning
- 2.6. Desertification
- 2.7. Carnegie Mellon supports new emphasis
3. INTRODUCTION TO SMART CITY SOLUTIONS
- 3.1. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
- 3.2. Many dreams but some not yet feasible
- 3.3. Ten location examples of six radical advances already coming in
- 3.4. New cities on the sea
- 3.5. Moveable cities
- 3.6. Goodbye centralised sewerage infrastructure
- 3.7. Energy independent cities overview
- 3.8. Water independent cities overview
- 3.9. Food independent cities overview
- 3.10. Robotics and reinvented transport overview
- 3.11. Cognitive responsive infrastructure
- 3.12. Digital Transformation and Exponential Organizations
- 3.13. Sensors are important for smart cities
- 3.14. Smart cities are more about radical advances nowadays
- 3.15. Excellent European Union initiatives
4. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
- 4.1. Overview
- 4.2. Buildings have a major impact on city energy consumption
- 4.3. Modular, zero-emission diesel genset and grid replacement
- 4.4. Photovoltaics for smart cities
- 4.4.1. Where the PV leaders are headed
- 4.4.2. New high power photovoltaic formats
- 4.4.3. Price-volume sensitivity by application
- 4.4.4. Primary conclusions: cost progression 1976-2040
- 4.4.5. Conclusions: thin film PV market
- 4.4.6. Best practice: EV ARC solar-tracking car charger
- 4.4.7. Highway barriers: Eindhoven University of Technology
- 4.4.8. Solar roads and other ground areas
- 4.4.9. The energy positive house
- 4.4.10. Gantry vs road surface
- 4.4.11. Dharan Saudi Arabia solar car park
- 4.5. Wind power for smart cities
- 4.5.1. Overview
- 4.5.2. Ground turbine wind power does not downsize well: physics, poorer wind
- 4.5.3. Wind turbine choices
- 4.6. Wind with solar
- 4.7. Buildings as zero-emission microgrids 2020-2040
- 4.8. Wireless, self-powered building controls: EnOcean and 8Power
- 4.9. Primary conclusions: Buildings and environs as microgrids
- 4.10. Active smart glass in buildings
- 4.11. Water power from city river, sea and supply pipes
- 4.11.1. Open tide "tide stream" power mimics wind power
- 4.11.2. Wello 600 kW units for Bali wave farm
- 4.11.3. Seabased wave power in operation 80kW each = 100MW order Ghana
- 4.11.4. Electricity from city water pipes
5. FOOD INDEPENDENCE
- 5.1. Food independence
- 5.1.1. Many options and more on the way
- 5.1.2. Solving the meat problem
- 5.1.3. Reducing food wastage
- 5.2. Growing population and growing demand for food
- 5.3. Major crop yields are plateauing using conventional approaches
- 5.4. Agriculture is one the last major industries to digitize
- 5.5. Farms get more efficient
- 5.6. Ultra precision agriculture coming via the variable rate technology route
- 5.7. Ultra precision farming will cause upheaval
- 5.8. Agricultural robotics and ultra precision agriculture disrupting value chain
- 5.9. Vertical farms
- 5.9.1. Healthier, fresher and more productive
- 5.9.2. Limitations of today's vertical farms: variety, cost
- 5.10. City greenhouse technology advancing rapidly
- 5.10.1. World's biggest rooftop greenhouse opens in Montreal
- 5.10.2. Multifunctional photovoltaic glass for optimal plant growing
- 5.11. China: agricultural districts Shanghai
- 5.12. RaaS or equipment sales
- 5.13. Market and technology readiness by agricultural activity
- 5.14. Market and technology readiness by agricultural activity
- 5.15. Autonomous robotics for greenhouses and nurseries
6. WATER INDEPENDENCE
- 6.1. Overview
- 6.2. Global map of regions of water stress and zero-emission energy sources
- 6.3. Desalination technology and materials
- 6.4. Large desalinators: big is beautiful but vulnerable
- 6.4.1. Global situation
- 6.4.2. Onerous requirements for large city desalination plants force rethink?
- 6.5. Roadmap for ZE off grid desalination 2018-2041
7. SMART TRANSPORT FOR CITIES
- 7.1. Overview
- 7.2. Robot shuttles: off-road , indoors and carrying delivery dogs
- 7.3. SAE levels of automation in land vehicles
- 7.4. The dream and the basics for getting there
- 7.4.1. Specification of a robot shuttle
- 7.5. Robotaxis compared to robot shuttles
- 7.6. Smart shuttles will address megatrends in cities
- 7.6.1. Robot shuttle business cases from bans and subsidies
- 7.6.2. Robot shuttle business cases: exceptional penetration of locations
- 7.6.3. Intensive use business cases are compelling
- 7.6.4. The robot shuttle opportunity cannot be addressed by adapting existing vehicles
- 7.7. The leaders so far
- 7.8. Upfront cost and other impediments
- 7.9. Dramatic autonomy improvements are coming
- 7.9.1. Cost, power, dynamic charging
- 7.10. Two generations of robot shuttle
- 7.10.1. Envisaged applications compared with robotaxis
- 7.10.2. Gen 2 robot shuttle technologies and earning streams 2025-2041
- 7.10.3. Building on the multi-purposing of the past
- 7.11. Robot shuttles: the bad things
- 7.12. Analysis of 36 robot shuttles and their dreams
- 7.13. Robot shuttle technology and launch roadmap 2020-2030
- 7.14. Trials including Detroit, Michigan, Austin, Stockholm, Helsinki
- 7.15. Predicting when the robot shuttle has lower up-front price than a legal diesel midibus 2020-2040
- 7.16. City drones and VTOL air taxis
- 7.17. Hyperloop and zero emission airliners
8. CITY COGNITIVE INFRASTRUCTURE, SENSOR SYSTEMS
- 8.1. Cognitive infrastructure arrives: new ubiquitous sensors and actuators
- 8.2. Sensors and sensor fusion
- 8.3. Embedded sensors
9. MULTIFUNCTIONAL COMPOSITES
- 9.1. Introduction to multifunctional polymer composites
- 9.2. Routes to "self-healing" composite parts
- 9.3. Editable (user-dedicated) electronics and electrics as smart material