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통신 네트워크 사업자 - 2021년 3분기 시장 리뷰 : 톱라인의 성장은 완만한 한편, 설비투자는 전년동기비 10% 증가, 인건비는 증가 추세

Telecommunications Network Operators - 3Q21 Market Review: Topline Growth Moderates but Capex Surges 10% YoY in 3Q21, Labor Costs On the Rise

리서치사 MTN Consulting, LLC
발행일 2021년 12월 상품코드 1044714
페이지 정보 영문 배송안내
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통신 네트워크 사업자 - 2021년 3분기 시장 리뷰 : 톱라인의 성장은 완만한 한편, 설비투자는 전년동기비 10% 증가, 인건비는 증가 추세 Telecommunications Network Operators - 3Q21 Market Review: Topline Growth Moderates but Capex Surges 10% YoY in 3Q21, Labor Costs On the Rise
발행일 : 2021년 12월 페이지 정보 : 영문

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문 목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

통신사업자(TELCO) 시장의 과거 2분기는 주로 팬데믹의 영향으로 베이스라인이 낮았기 때문에 예년과 달리 고성장이 되었지만, 최근 분기에서 시장 매출 성장은 쇠퇴되고 있습니다. 2021년 3분기 통신사업자의 매출은 전년동기비 3.9% 증가한 4,644억 달러를 기록했습니다.

통신 시장의 매출은 환율 변동의 영향을 크게 받지만, 최근 분기에서 그 영향은 없었습니다. 모든 통화 환율을 2011년 1분기 가치로 일정하게 유지하는 고정 환율 시나리오에서는 역사적으로 통신 분야의 전년동기비 매출 성장률이 실제 레이트를 이용했을 경우보다 훨씬 안정되어 있습니다. 그러나 2021년 3분기 통신 사업 매출의 성장은 고정 환율 기반으로 4%가 되어, 실세 환율 기반인 3.9%의 성장과 거의 일치했습니다.

통신 네트워크 사업자에 대해 조사했으며, 2021년 9월(3분기)까지의 결산을 기초로 세계의 통신 업계를 종합적으로 평가하고 있습니다. 138개사의 독립한 통신 네트워크 사업자(TNO)의 매출, 설비투자 등의 재무 지표, 국가·지역의 내역 등의 정보를 제공합니다.

샘플

목차

  • 1. 요약
  • 2. 시장 현황
  • 3. 분석
  • 4. 3분기까지 주요 통계
  • 5. 노동 통계
  • 6. 오퍼레이터 순위
  • 7. 기업 상세와 벤치마크
  • 8. 국가의 내역
  • 9. 지역의 내역
  • 10. 미가공 데이터
  • 11. 채널 등록자와 트래픽
  • 12. 환율
  • 13. 조사 방법과 범위
  • 14. 당사에 대해
KSM 22.02.21

This market review provides a comprehensive assessment of the global telecommunications industry based on financial results through September 2021 (3Q21). The report tracks revenue, capex and employee for 138 individual telecommunications network operators (TNOs). For a sub-group of 68 large TNOs, the report also assesses labor cost, opex and operating profit trends. The report also covers annual data for other financial metrics such as debt, cash & short term investments, M&A spend and cash flow from operations for 50 companies from the TNO-68 subset. Our coverage timeframe spans 1Q11-3Q21 (43 quarters). The report's format is Excel.

VISUALS

Telco revenue growth unscathed but slowing down

After unusually high growth in the past two quarters mainly due to a pandemic-induced low base period, the telecom network operator (telco) market witnessed revenue growth tapering in the latest quarter. For the single quarter 3Q21, telco revenues grew by just 3.9% on a YoY basis to post $464.4 billion (B).

While telco market revenues are notably affected by exchange rate fluctuations, they weren't a factor in the latest quarter. In a fixed exchange rate scenario, where all currency exchange rates are held constant to the 1Q11 value, YoY revenue growth historically has been much more stable in the telecom sector than when using actual rates. However, 3Q21 was different with telco revenue growth at 4% on a fixed exchange rate basis, almost in line with the growth rate of 3.9% on actual exchange rates basis. Regardless, for the slow growth telecom market, a 3.9% growth rate is good news.

Annualized revenues also grew for the third straight quarter, posting $1.89 trillion with a YoY growth rate of 6.6% in 3Q21. At the operator level, four of the top 20 best performing telcos by topline in 3Q21 posted double-digit growth on an annualized basis. These include Deutsche Telekom (20.9% YoY vs. annualized 3Q20), China Mobile (20.4%), China Telecom (20.2%), and China Unicom (16.4%). By the same criteria, the worst telco growth came from Softbank (-22.7%) during the same period. Telefonica was the only other operator among the top 20 to post a decline in revenues. While the big swings at Deutsche Telekom and Softbank are due to the former closing its acquisition of Sprint from Softbank in April 2020, growth witnessed by other operators was mostly an outcome of low base effect in the previous quarters. Another factor for some operators is non-service revenues, as these have grown with 5G device sales in many markets. China Mobile, for instance, saw device revenues grow from 48.7B RMB in the first 9 months of 2020, to 75.8B for the 1Q-3Q21 period.

Capex grows faster than revenues again

Telcos continue to loosen their purse strings on capex which grew at a much faster rate than revenues for the second straight quarter. Single-quarter capex growth jumped at a double-digit rate of 10% on a YoY basis, totaling $80.4B in 3Q21. With topline growth improving and the desire to deploy 5G network capability still strong, telco investments surged. As a result, annualized capital intensity was 16.6% in 3Q21 vs. 16.4% in the prior quarter. Telcos have resumed investments in infrastructure upgrades and 5G buildouts. For instance, Globe Telecom's annualized capital intensity stood at 55% in 3Q21 due to a network infrastructure buildup that includes 1,080 new cell sites, upgrades to at least 12,900 sites including both 4G LTE and 5G, and installation of over one million fiber-to-the-home lines. Vodafone's annualized capital intensity has also spiked recently, from 16.0% in 3Q20 to 17.5% in 3Q21, as spending ramped both for meeting connectivity demands and new digital platforms.

The biggest capex spender in 3Q21 on a single quarter and annualized basis was China Mobile. This was despite the company's YoY drop of 5.7% in the annualized 3Q21 period, enabled by China Mobile's network partnership with China Broadcasting Network. Ten out of the top 20 operators by annualized capex spend posted double-digit growth rates in the period ended 3Q21. Some of these include: Deutsche Telekom (34.2% YoY vs. annualized 3Q20, due in part to absorbing Sprint in April 2020), China Unicom (17.2%), Vodafone (15.9%), Orange (14.5%), and BT (30.5%). On an annualized capital intensity basis, Rakuten beats all other telcos handily with a roughly 201% capex/revenue ratio for the quarter; its greenfield network rollout is reaching its peak. Other capital intensity standouts include: Globe Telecom (55.5%), PLDT (48.1%), Oi (40.4%), Telecom Egypt (34.6%), CK Hutchison (32.4%), Consolidated Communications (31.4%), and Digi Communications (31.2%).

Telcos will increasingly rely on software-based solutions and automation to drive profitability

Telco profitability maintained a strong stance into 3Q21. Annualized operating margins ended the latest quarter at 15%, up from 14.3% in the same quarter of 2020. Annualized EBITDA margins improved marginally, up from 33.9% in 3Q20 to 34% in 3Q21. While labor costs as a percentage of opex ex-D&A have moderated in the recent quarters, they are not the direct cause of this margin growth. Rather, within the overall telco opex budget, telcos are having success in cutting their sales & marketing and G&A spending, as telcos adjust to working from home and accelerate the migration of sales & support to digital platforms. These efforts accelerated in 2Q20 and 3Q20, as COVID-19 spread and telcos were forced to do business with minimal human intervention, but have continued in 2021. Meanwhile, many telcos are reporting that network operations is taking up a larger portion of the opex pie. Managing costs is core to telcos' willingness to partner with webscale providers, whose sales of software licenses to telcos are growing, posing a grave challenge to the more traditional telco-centric vendors like Cisco and Nokia.

No respite to industry headcount downtrend even as labor costs rise

Telco industry headcount continues to decline, falling to 4.789 million in 3Q21, down from 4.903 million a year ago. Telco spending on digital transformation, software-defined networks (SDN) and AI tools have facilitated a smaller but higher-skilled workforce. MTN Consulting expects headcount reductions to continue via attrition and voluntary retirement schemes, heading towards 4.5 million by 2025. However, we also expect telcos to invest heavily in their workforce: retraining existing employees on digital platforms, and hiring highly skilled software savvy employees. The average telco employee salary will rise as a result, an outlook consistent with 3Q21 results - annualized labor costs per employee increased to $57.2K in 3Q21 from $53.5K in 3Q20.

Asia just shy of Americas on revenue basis; Europe dips on revenue basis but capex growth intact

Regionally, all but Asia were a mixed bag - MEA region topped revenue growth among the four major regions in 3Q21, but was also the only to post declines in capex. Similarly, Europe's revenues declined YoY but posted growth in capex in the latest quarter. The Americas region maintained its stronghold as the largest single region on a revenue basis, but its share fell slightly in 3Q21 to 37.5% from 38.1% in the same quarter of the prior year as economies in the region have been hit by currency depreciation. The Asia region is fast catching up with the Americas though, with its share trailing by just 1.5 ppts at 36.5% in 3Q21. On a capex basis, the Asia region has been outspending the Americas for many year. Europe's capex growth story is courtesy of a late start to 5G spending due to delayed spectrum auctions, coupled with increased efforts in FTTH deployments and government-supported rural rollouts. Europe's annualized capital intensity of 18.5% surpassed the 18.2% recorded in Asia for the same quarter, and Europe was the only region to witness an uptick in annualized capital intensity in 3Q21 when compared to 3Q20.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Abstract
  • 2. Market snapshot
  • 3. Analysis
  • 4. Key stats through 3Q21
  • 5. Labor stats
  • 6. Operator rankings
  • 7. Company Deepdive & Benchmarking
  • 8. Country breakouts
  • 9. Regional breakouts
  • 10. Raw Data
  • 11. Subs & traffic
  • 12. Exchange rates
  • 13. Methodology & Scope
  • 14. About

Figures and Charts

  • 1. TNO market size & growth by: Revenues, Capex, Employees - 3Q19-3Q21
  • 2. Regional trends by: Revenues, Capex - 3Q17-3Q21
  • 3. Opex & Cost trends
  • 4. Labor cost trends: 3Q19-3Q21
  • 5. Profitability margin trends: 3Q19-3Q21
  • 6. Spending (opex, labor costs, capex): annual and quarterly trend
  • 7. Key ratios: annual and quarterly trend
  • 8. Workforce & productivity trends: 1Q14-3Q21
  • 9. Operator rankings by revenue and capex: latest single-quarter and annualized periods
  • 10. Top 20 TNOs by capital intensity: latest single-quarter and annualized periods
  • 11. Top 20 TNOs by employee base: latest single-quarter
  • 12. TNOs: YoY growth in single quarter revenues
  • 13. TNOs: Annualized capital intensity, 3Q15-3Q21
  • 14. TNOs: Revenue and RPE, annualized 3Q15-3Q21
  • 15. TNOs: Capex and capital intensity (annualized), 3Q15-3Q21
  • 16. TNOs: Total headcount trends, 3Q15-3Q21
  • 17. TNOs: Revenue and RPE trends, 2011-20
  • 18. TNOs: Capex and capital intensity, 2011-20 ($ Mn)
  • 19. TNOs: Capex and capital intensity, 3Q15-3Q21 ($ Mn)
  • 20. TNOs: Revenue and RPE trends, 3Q15-3Q21
  • 21. Top 68 TNOs by total opex, 3Q21
  • 22. Top 68 TNOs by labor costs, 3Q21
  • 23. TNOs: Software as % of total capex
  • 24. TNOs: Software & spectrum spend
  • 25. TNOs: Total M&A, spectrum and capex (excl. spectrum)
  • 26. Top 68 TNOs by total debt: 2011-20
  • 27. Top 68 TNOs by total net debt: 2011-20
  • 28. Top 68 TNOs by long term debt: 2011-20
  • 29. Top 68 TNOs by short term debt: 2011-20
  • 30. Top 68 TNOs by total cash and short term investments ($M): 2011-20
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