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세계의 주석 시장 전망(-2030년) : 제12판

Tin: Outlook to 2030, 12th Edition

리서치사 Roskill Information Services
발행일 2020년 08월 31일 발행예정 상품 코드 942691
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세계의 주석 시장 전망(-2030년) : 제12판 Tin: Outlook to 2030, 12th Edition
발행일 : 2020년 08월 31일 발행예정 페이지 정보 : 영문

세계의 주석 소비량은 2015년 이후 계속 성장했으나, 2019년에는 감소로 전환했습니다. 이 배경에는 세계의 경기후퇴에 수반하는 가전제품의 생산량 감소라는 요인이 있으며 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(COVID-19)의 팬데믹에 의해 이 상황은 당분간 지속되나, 5G 서비스의 개시, 스마트홈 기기 및 리튬이온(Li-ion) 배터리의 진보 등에 의해 장기적으로는 수요의 꾸준한 확대를 기대할 수 있습니다. 주석 수요의 약 절반은 주로 가전제품에서 이용되고는 땜납(solder)에 의한 것이나, 2019년에는 휴대폰 및 스마트폰, 데스크톱 컴퓨터의 생산량이 침체되면서 계속 확대되던 수요가 일단락했습니다. 2020년에는 COVID-19의 영향이 세계 경제 전체에 미치며, 가전제품의 소비가 한층 더 침체할 가능성이 높아지고 있으므로 이 동향은 당분간 계속될 전망입니다. 제련 주석의 70% 이상은 중국, 인도네시아, 말레이시아에서 생산되고 있으며, 페루, 볼리비아, 브라질이 14%를 차지하고 있습니다. 주석 공급망이 이와 같이 지역적으로 집중되어 있으므로 정제주석 업계는 COVID-19에 대한 각국 정부의 대응에 좌우되는 경향이 강하며, 생산국 중에는 생산량을 삭감하거나 조업을 정지한 곳도 있습니다. 이에 따라 2019-2020년 제련 주석의 생산량은 전년 동기비 5% 가까이 감소할 것으로 예상됩니다. 주석 광산에서도 같은 사태가 예상되고 있으며, 생산량의 50% 이상이 중국과 인도네시아, 약 20%가 페루, 볼리비아, 브라질에 집중되어 있으므로 팬데믹의 영향은 한층 더 커질 것으로 생각됩니다. 2019년에는 과잉 공급에 수반하는 생산량의 삭감이 시행되고 2020년에 들어서도 COVID-19의 영향이 계속되고 있으나, 2021년 이후 5G 서비스의 확대 등에 수반하여 수요는 급속히 회복할 전망입니다.

세계의 주석 시장을 조사했으며, 공급망의 흐름, 세계의 생산과 소비 상황, 생산비용, 국제 거래, 향후 전망, 생산국과 기업의 개요, 소비 동향 등의 정보를 정리하여 전해드립니다.

목차

  • 1.개요
  • 2.공급망 플로 차트
  • 3.세계의 생산 상황
  • 4.생산비용
  • 5.세계의 소비 상황
  • 6.국제 거래
  • 7.가격
  • 8.전망
  • 9.배경
  • 10.지속가능성
  • 11.생산국 개요
  • 12. 기업 개요
  • 13.용도별 소비 상황
KSA 20.07.03

The recent stability in global tin demand came to an end in 2019, with world consumption falling for the first time since 2015. Demand is expected to remain subdued in the short term, driven by falling output of consumer electronics amid a contracting global economy, as result of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The long-term outlook remains bright for global tin demand, driven by new applications such as 5G network rollout, smart home devices and advances in lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries.

Around half of all tin demand comes from solder applications and primarily the use of solder in consumer electronics. In 2019, consumption in consumer electronics suffered its first decrease in five years, driven by falling output of conventional mobile phones, smartphones, and desktop computers. This trend is set to continue in 2020 as the impacts of COVID-19 are felt across the global economy, leading to a further slump in consumption of consumer electronics. Demand for consumer electronics is closely tied to GDP growth and a "V-shaped" recovery to the global economy, as appears to be occurring in China, is set to lead to an increase in consumer electronics consumption in 2021.

Over 70% of refined tin production is attributed to China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with 14% of remaining refined output accounted for by Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. This geographical concentration of the tin supply chain has left the refined tin industry relatively exposed to government responses to COVID-19, with several of the major refined tin producers implementing output cuts and operation suspensions as a result of the pandemic. Year-on-year refined tin production, between 2019 and 2020, is expected to fall by nearly 5% as a result of these measures.

A similar picture is expected for mine supply of tin, with over 50% of mine output attributed to China and Indonesia and nearly 20% centred in Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil. Mine supply is set to be more severely affected by the pandemic , with a 10% y-on-y fall. Many suspensions related to COVID-19 were in place for between one to two months in H1 2020, with only Peruvian tin producer Minsur's suspension and Indonesian tin producer PT Timah's 20-30% output cut extending beyond two months.

Much of 2019 was marred by oversupply of refined tin, which led to several of the major tin producers, including PT Timah and China's Yunnan Tin, announcing output cuts in 2019. With demand for refined tin set to stutter in 2020, the cutbacks in response to COVID-19 will be vital in maintaining the health of the tin market. The supply/demand balance is set to move into a deficit in 2020, as drops to refined tin production will likely outweigh falls in demand.

Global tin demand is set to recover by 2021, buoyed by several new applications that are set to grow rapidly over the outlook period. The rollout of 5G networks is set to boost the telecommunications and other electronics sectors. Smartphones and conventional mobile phones account for nearly half of all consumer electronics and, with demand for conventional mobile phones rapidly falling, a boost to smartphone demand will be key to increased refined tin use in consumer electronics. The emergence of smart home devices over the last decade has boosted consumer electronics output; such devices accounted for only 2% of output in 2011, but rose to nearly 24% of the total in 2019.

The use of tin in Li-ion battery anodes is a sector that has shown some of the highest growth over the last decade, accounting for 0.4% of refined tin consumption in 2011 and growing to 3% in 2019. This trend is set to continue over the outlook period, with the degree of vehicle electrification expected to increase substantially over the coming decade. Advances in Li-ion battery materials indicate tin and tin compound materials offer increased stability to Li-ion batteries, which could become a major driver for increased used of tin in the sector.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the tin sector?
  • What are the likely supply developments across existing operations?
  • Where will new sources of mine production come from?
  • How is demand from the solder, chemicals, and battery sectors likely to develop in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and prices to 2030?

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  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use
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