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안티몬 : 향후 전망(-2030년)

Antimony: Outlook to 2030, 14th Edition

리서치사 Roskill Information Services
발행일 2020년 10월 31일 발행예정 상품 코드 942693
페이지 정보 영문
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안티몬 : 향후 전망(-2030년) Antimony: Outlook to 2030, 14th Edition
발행일 : 2020년 10월 31일 발행예정 페이지 정보 : 영문

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

세계 안티몬 소비량은 2019년에도 침체 상태에 있었지만, 2020년 코로나19(Covid-19)의 영향을 받아 더 깊은 침체가 우려되고 있습니다. 또 자원 회수에 의한 2차 공급량이 증가하고 있으며, 1차 공급량 감소가 예상되고 있습니다. 용도별로는 비야금 용도, 특히 난연제용 수요가 중심이 될 것입니다.

세계의 안티몬(Antimony) 시장에 대해 분석했으며, 세계의 자원 매장량 및 부존 상황, 최근의 생산량·소비량·가격 추이, 주요 시장 성장 촉진요인 및 억제요인, 향후의 시장 기회 방향성, 주요 기업 프로파일, 국가별 시장의 상세 동향 등의 정보를 정리하여 전해드립니다.

목차

  • 1. 개요
  • 2. 공급망 플로우 차트
  • 3. 세계 생산 동향
  • 4. 생산 비용
  • 5. 세계 소비 동향
  • 6. 국제무역
  • 7. 가격
  • 8. 향후 전망
  • 9. 배경
  • 10. 지속가능성
  • 11.국가별 시장 개요
  • 12. 기업 개요
  • 13. 1차 이용의 소비량
LSH 20.07.03

Antimony is mostly consumed in flame retardants and lead-acid batteries. Together these end-uses account for more than 80% of antimony demand and trends in these two critical applications thus shape market dynamics.

In both cases, a similar situation prevails: while overall demand (for flame retardants and lead-acid batteries) has been steadily increasing, the antimony loading within these applications has been cut. In flame retardants, this is mainly because of high antimony prices prompting substitution of antimony, and legislative and requirements forcing changes to flame retardant formulas. In batteries, lead-calcium-tin alloys are increasingly used instead of antimonial lead in battery grids for sealed-for-life maintenance-free automotive batteries, also called valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries. Other end-uses include plastics and heat stabilizers, ceramics and glass (specifically solar panel glass) and a variety of metallurgical applications.

Consumption of antimony was weak in 2019 and the impact of COVID-19 means that demand will remain sluggish in 2020. Roskill maintains a forecast of 1-2%py growth for non-metallurgical applications over the 2020s, which will be counterbalanced by a decline in metallurgical demand, leading to deceptively steady total demand. However, importantly, Roskill believes the market may soon experience a fundamental shift. Antimony enters the supply chain in two ways: primary mine production, and secondary recovery of antimonial lead. By the mid-2020s, secondary supply from antimonial lead will be sufficient to meet metallurgical demand. As such, little or no primary supply will be required for metallurgical applications, making the metallurgical side of the market effectively "self-sufficient". As a result, Roskill forecasts that the primary supply of mined antimony will then be entirely underpinned by non-metallurgical applications, specifically flame retardants.

The outlook for non-metallurgical antimony demand is positive when considering construction and plastics trends, which suggests demand for flame retardants will increase. Antimony demand in glass is far smaller but could potentially enjoy high growth rates due to use in photovoltaic panel production. With a modest growth in demand for antimony in non-metallurgical end uses expected, Roskill envisages that demand could start to outstrip current supply levels over the longer term. However, potential additional by-product antimony supply from existing gold producers is likely to keep the market in significant surplus for much of the next decade. In addition, growing secondary supply from antimonial lead will provide a new potential antimony source over the second half of the 2020s. While currently not commercially viable to meet flame-retardant-grade antimony trioxide specifications, processors might look to utilise this growing secondary resource.

Global mine supply declined over much of the 2010s and bottomed out in 2017, mostly tracking falling demand. China has by far the largest antimony resources and has, as a result, been the world's centre for antimony mine and refined production. While China remains the leading primary producer in 2020, declining reserves, market consolidation and regulatory inspections across China leading to closures of facilities has caused a significant decrease in Chinese output from over 80% of global production in 2010 to around 50% in 2020. As a result, China has sourced growing volumes of primary antimony units through imports.

Russia and Tajikistan are the next largest producers of antimony after China, both ramping up production in recent years to fill the gap left by China and causing global supply to rebound in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Russian supply of antimony leapfrogged ahead of Tajikistan with Russian company Polyus, one of world's leading gold producers, supplying by-product antimony from its Olimpiada mine equivalent to 15% of global mined antimony supply.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • Are reserves in China dwindling, and what is the future for global mine supply?
  • How have environmental inspections impacted smelters in China and what is the global landscape of antimony processing?
  • What portion of supply is made up of gold-bearing concentrates and where are these processed?
  • Which projects might produce antimony units in the future?
  • How might regulation impact demand for antimony in flame retardants and batteries?
  • How will COVID-19 impact demand in the short term?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use
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