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코발트 : 2030년까지 전망(제16판)

Cobalt Outlook to 2030, 16th Edition

리서치사 Roskill Information Services
발행일 2020년 10월 30일 발행예정 상품 코드 943944
페이지 정보 영문
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코발트 : 2030년까지 전망(제16판) Cobalt Outlook to 2030, 16th Edition
발행일 : 2020년 10월 30일 발행예정 페이지 정보 : 영문

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

비교적 빠듯한 공급에 비해 배터리 부문으로부터 코발트 원료의 큰 수요에 의해 코발트 금속 가격은 2016년 1 파운드당 15 달러 미만에서 2018년 2분기 1 파운드당 43 달러 이상으로 10년간 최고치로 상승했습니다. 그러나 Katanga Mining 등 대형 생산업체로부터의 공급 등이 증가하면서 시장은 공급 과잉이 되었습니다. 그 결과 가격은 2018년 중반부터 후퇴하기 시작해 2019년 7월에 3년간 가장 낮은 1 파운드당 13 달러로 하락했습니다.

코발트 분포 상태, 매장량, 세계 분포 등의 분석과 국가·기업별 생산량·소비량, 최종사용·최종 이용 산업별 제조·소비 동향, 수출입 동향, 가격 동향 등에 대해 정리하여 전해드립니다.

주요 조사 내용

  • 배터리 및 항공우주 분야의 코발트 사용 전망
  • 향후 10년간 코발트 수요
  • DRC 코발트 분야 전망
  • ASM 부문이 코발트 밸류체인에서 담당하는 역할
  • DRC 이외의 새로운 원료 소스
  • 코발트 정광·재활용의 주요 변화
  • 국제적으로 거래되고 있는 각종 코발트 형상
  • 코발트 채굴 및 정광 생산 비용
  • 2030년까지 가격 전망
KSM 20.07.13

The use of cobalt largely benefits from its hardness, anti-corrosion and high-temperature resistance characteristics, making it a competitive alloying metal for a variety of critical industrial applications. Since the first commercialisation of Li-ion batteries by Sony, it has been the development of consumer electronics that has underpinned cobalt demand. More recently, demand for cobalt chemicals in rechargeable battery cathodes has grown rapidly, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the context of collective governmental efforts to shift towards a low-carbon world.

Despite being a technology enabler for modern society, volatility has increasingly become a characteristic of the cobalt market owing to the complexities of its supply chain as well as those of the fast-moving battery and aerospace sectors. The high concentration of mining and refining production in two countries, the DRC and China, coupled with ESG concerns, represent potential long-term supply risks deeply embedded in the value chain. Short term, cobalt demand also faces headwinds from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the battery and aerospace industries and trends towards thrifting of cobalt in Li-ion battery chemistries (in favour of higher nickel loadings).

Underpinned by the huge demand for cobalt feedstocks from the battery sector versus relatively tight supply, the cobalt metal price climbed from below US$15/lb in 2016 to a ten-year high of US$43/lb in Q2 2018. High metal prices and hydroxide payables in turn led to an enormous supply response from producers in the DRC, including artisanal producers. New supply from sizable producers like Katanga Mining, coupled with swing artisanal production, put the market into oversupply.

Consequently, prices started to retreat from mid-2018 and fell to a three-year low of $13/lb in July 2019. Despite some rebound in hydroxide payables and metal prices in late 2019 as Glencore mothballed Mutanda, the largest cobalt mine in the world, the cobalt metal price fell back to close to a 10-month low in June 2020. The premia for battery chemicals including cobalt sulphate and tetroxide also dwindled as a result of near-term uncertainty in the market following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the short-term challenges, Roskill believes that the cobalt market is now entering a new phase of consolidation and rejuvenation. The medium-term demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily once battery and aerospace sectors recover from recent setbacks with the assistance of supportive government subsidy/rescue schemes both in China and Europe. In addition, as market participants re-focus on supply chain security and sustainability, a more resilient and diverse cobalt value chain could be built. As such, cobalt should continue to play an essential role in the global transition towards clean energy technologies.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What is the outlook for cobalt use in battery and aerospace sectors?
  • How will cobalt demand perform in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the DRC cobalt sector?
  • What role does the ASM sector play in the cobalt value chain?
  • Where will new sources of feedstock come from outside the DRC?
  • Key changes in cobalt refining and recycling?
  • How different forms of cobalt are traded internationally?
  • What are the production costs of mining and refining cobalt?
  • How will prices perform to 2030?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings
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