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국가위험도 리포트 : 중국

China Country Risk Report

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행정보 연간구독 상품 코드 203072
페이지 정보 영문 91 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,407,000 PDF (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 중국 China Country Risk Report
발행정보 : 페이지 정보 : 영문 91 Pages

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

중국의 경제 성장 전망은 2018년에도 여전히 비관적이며, 실질 GDP 성장률은 6.6%까지 하락했고, 2019년 성장 전망은 6.4%에서 6.2%로 하락했습니다. 2019년에는 미중 무역분쟁이 계속될 것으로 전망되고 있기 때문에 무역을 둘러싼 외부 환경은 향후에도 성장에 악영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다. 대외적인 역풍이 실업을 유발하고, 임금 상승을 억제하기 때문에 개인소비 성장은 여전히 압박을 받을 전망입니다. 금융 정책 완화, 세금 감면, 인프라 지출 증가 등의 정부 지원이 증가함에 따라 투자 성장률은 소폭 상승할 가능성이 있습니다.

중국의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 예측 변동사항
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 무역분쟁에 의한 소비 침체로 2019년 중국 경제는 한층 더 성장 감속
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 대외무역 투자 전망
  • 쌍둥이 적자(경상수지 적자와 재정수지 적자의 동시 발생)가 위험을 높인다
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 중국 중앙경제공작회의 : 성장 지원에 주목
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 통화 예측
  • 좋은 기회를 눈앞에 둔 중국 위안화
  • 10년간 예측
  • 2028년까지 중국의 경제
  • 경제 구조조정에 의한 구조적 침체
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 2019년 중국 국민의 불안감이 확산될 가능성이 높다
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 색인
LSH 19.04.24

We at Fitch Solutions now forecast the Chinese economy to grow by 1.9% and 10.2% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, from 2.2% and 5.8%, previously. We expect a further acceleration in private consumption and investment in Q420 to form a healthier, more broad-based growth picture as opposed to previous quarters when the recovery was mostly led by the external sector. While our 2021 forecast may seem very bullish, it is due mostly to base effects rather than any real surge in economic activity, and is based on a conservative forecast for q-o-q growth to average just 1.3% in 2021.

We at Fitch Solutions are dialling back our expectations for China's current account balance to flip into a structural deficit over the short to medium term, and we now expect the current account balance to remain in a slight surplus, averaging 0.4% of GDP over the coming decade. Slower investment growth, as Beijing looks to rein in debt growth, will result in a slight widening of the current account surplus. With the slow progress of rebalancing towards consumption, the savings rate is unlikely to see a significant fall in the near future, which suggests that pressure on the current account will be limited. At the same time, Beijing's objective of achieving self-sufficiency in technology will likely see its goods trade surplus widen.

We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2020 primary deficit forecast for China to 5.6% of GDP, from 6.7% of GDP previously, to account for stronger-than-expected fiscal balance in the year-to-date. For 2021, we expect China's primary deficit to narrow slightly to 5.1% of GDP, as improving economic activity would likely result in higher revenue and slower growth in expenditure. That said, we still expect the primary deficit for 2021 to be larger than historical figures, as China is unlikely to roll back all of its existing stimulus to support economic recovery. Although Beijing's fiscal deficit will likely remain relatively smaller compared to many other countries like Singapore and the US, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe its fiscal position worse than it appears given rising off-balance sheet debt.

We at Fitch Solutions expect the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to maintain its current loose policy stance, and continue to be flexible and targeted in any easing, if needed, through 2021. We do not expect the central bank to implement further massive monetary stimulus, given the high indebtedness of the economy and property prices, although it may perform some targeted easing like what was seen in 2019, should the need arise. Although we forecast real GDP growth to come in at 10.2% in 2021, this will mainly be driven by base effects instead of a fundamental improvement in economic conditions, which will see the PBoC maintain its existing stimulus measures to support economic recovery.

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our 2020 average yuan forecast at CNY6.93/USD, with bullish technical indicators supporting our view for more yuan strength through the end of 2020 and beyond. Meanwhile, we have revised our 2021 yuan forecast to CNY6.65/USD, from CNY6.85/ USD previously, mainly to reflect the stronger position the yuan will likely be in at the start of the year. The much stronger recovery in China relative to other economies, particularly the US, will continue to see the yuan remain strong at around current levels in at least the first half of 2021, though this advantage is likely to fade in the second half. Biden's victory in the elections also means a less confrontational US-China relationship is likely, a further positive for the CNY in 2021.

With Joe Biden as the projected winner of the US presidency, we at Fitch Solutions expect an administration under him to take a more measured, multilateral approach towards Asia, confronting China by attempting to enlist democratic allies and parties whose interests and values align with that of the US. Biden will likely find building a counter-China 'coalition' a difficult process, given the economic clout Beijing wields in Asia, and he will be forced to consider an issue-by-issue approach to make it more palatable for Asian states to support his agenda. We also expect greater US economic engagement with Asian nations under Biden's presidency, and believe that he will likely begin negotiations for the US to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, in a bid to reduce China's economic influence over the region. Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2020 real GDP growth forecast for China to 1.9% from 2.2% previously.

We now forecast a primary fiscal deficit equal to 5.6% of GDP, from 6.7% previously.

We have revised our 2021 average yuan forecasts to CNY6.65/USD from CNY6.85/USD previously.

We now expect the current account to remain in slight surplus over the coming decade, and no longer see it becoming structurally prone to deficits during this period. Key Risks

The global outbreak of Covid-19 remains key risk to China's economy, as a resurgence of Covid-19 infections could see major economies re- implementing lockdowns, boding ill for China's external demand.

Our CNY forecasts are subject to downside risks as they assume that China continues to keep a tight lid on Covid-19 domestically and the economy continues to recover in the absence of a large and sustained second wave of infections. THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. fitchsolutions.com MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (CHINA 2018-2021) Indicator Nominal GDP, USDbn Real GDP growth, % y-o-y Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop Exchange rate CNY/USD, eop Budget balance, % of GDP Current account balance, % of GDP f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. fitchsolutions.com Country Risk Summary Political Risk Index The Communist Party has ruled the People's Republic of China since its inception in 1949, and retains a well-fortified position at the centre of the political system. In the short term, this has significant advantages in terms of policy continuity and the policy-making process, and these strengths are reflected in China's short-term political risk score of 79.4. However, the party's dominance presents some disadvantages over the long term, such as the inherent fragility of unelected governments, which often struggle to evolve with societal demands. These shortcomings are factored into China's relatively weaker long-term political risk score, which comes in at 68.2. China's short and long term political risk scores are 79.4 and 68.2. Economic Risk Index China faces a difficult short-term economic outlook as real GDP growth declines due to unwinding credit growth amid efforts by the government to rein in financial risks as well as the ongoing trade conflict with the US. However, China's economic outlook is still relatively brighter than many peer EMs due to a strong private consumption growth, and its external position in particular remains sound. The cloudier short-term outlook accounts for its lower short-term economic risk score of 73.3, compared to its long-term economic risk score of 76.0. China's short and long term economic risk scores are 73.8 and 76.8. Operational Risk Index China's composite operational risk score clocks in at a relatively modest 58.8, owing to weak scores in labour market risk (54.9) and security risk (47.3). This reflects the gradual decline of labour advantage in China amid an aging population and relatively weak security despite significant improvements over recent years. These improvements are largely encapsulated in China's comparatively stronger logistics risk score, which comes in at 71.8 and will continue to improve as the country's infrastructure is developed further. China's Operational Risk score is 58.8. THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. fitchsolutions.com Economic SWOT SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses

China runs a trade surplus and its still significant foreign exchange reserves serve as a major cushion against external shocks.

China's economic policymakers are committed to continuing their gradual reform of the economy.

China's economic growth boom has led to major imbalances and environmental degradation.

The country's dependency on investment to boost growth has made it vulnerable to a slowdown in credit growth. Private consumption remains weak at around 40% of GDP.

The close relations between provincial leaders and local businesses are fostering corruption, making it harder for the central government to enforce its policies. Opportunities

China's economic growth is slowly becoming more broad-based, with domestic consumption likely to slowly rise in importance vis-à-vis exports and investment.

As China moves up the value chain, it will develop its own global brand name companies, fostering innovation and growth. Threats

We believe that China is in the midst of a long-term economic slowdown.

The economy will face difficulty in continuing to increase its share of the global export market, and efforts to move up the value chain will be fraught with problems.

Deteriorating relations between China and the West could see some Western countries increase difficulties of doing business with China, which would weigh on China's inflows of foreign direct investment. THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research. fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Key Country View
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic SWOT
  • Political SWOT
  • Economic Outlook
  • China To See 10.2% Real GDP Surge In 2021 Due To Base Effects
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Slight Surplus Likely Over The Coming Years As External Rebalancing Slows In China
  • Outlook On External Position
  • Monetary Policy Outlook
  • No Massive Easing In China But Accommodative Policy Here To Stay
  • Monetary Policy Framework
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Slightly Narrower Primary Deficit Likely In China As Economy Rebounds
  • Structural Fiscal Position
  • Currency Forecast
  • Chinese Yuan Strength Likely To Last Till H121
  • 10-Year Forecasts
  • China's Structural Slowdown To Span The Next Decade
  • Political Outlook
  • Biden Presidency Will Seek More Measured And Multilateral Approach To China And Asia
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • China To Face Major Challenges Over The Coming Decades
  • Operational Risk
  • Economic Openness Analysis
  • Trade Openness
  • Investment Openness
  • Utilities Network Analysis
  • Utilities Costs And Availability
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Q3 Surprise Will Give Way To Challenging Q4
  • Index Tables
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts
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