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국가위험도 리포트 : 인도

India Country Risk Report

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행정보 연간구독 상품 코드 203079
페이지 정보 영문 93 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,403,000 PDF (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 인도 India Country Risk Report
발행정보 : 페이지 정보 : 영문 93 Pages

본 상품은 영문 자료로 한글과 영문목차에 불일치하는 내용이 있을 경우 영문을 우선합니다. 정확한 검토를 위해 영문목차를 참고해주시기 바랍니다.

인도의 실질 GDP 성장률은 높은 기저효과와 제조업 쇠퇴에 의해 전년도 같은 기간의 8.2%에서 7.1%로 대폭 하락했습니다. 2사분기의 성장 감속을 반영하여 2018년 3월의 성장 예측은 7.3%에서 7.1%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 전체적인 인플레율은 지금까지 예측보다 완만해질 것으로 보이기 때문에 인도준비은행(RBI)은 레포금리를 2018-2019년간은 6.5%, 2019-202년간은 6.75%로 설정할 전망입니다. 원유가격 반동이 인도의 무역 조건 악화를 야기하고, 루피는 다시 약화될 것으로 예측됩니다. 또, 정치적인 불확실성, 신용 디폴트 스왑(CDS) 확대, 재정 악화 가능성 등도 루피 약세의 원인이 될 가능성이 있습니다.

인도의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 정치 및 쉐도우 뱅킹(그림자 금융) 역풍으로 인도의 성장이 둔화
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 인도의 금융 긴축을 지지하는 소프트 인플레이션
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 인도의 높은 선거비용에 기인한 2018년 재정 적자
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 단기적으로는 인도 루피가 약화
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 인도의 경제
  • 인도의 성장은 기대에 부응하는가?
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 주(州) 선거 패전에 의해 나렌드라 모디 수상의 재선 전망은 어둡다
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 비즈니스를 중요시하는 입장으로 전환
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 변동성이 성장 둔화로 연결
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

India's real GDP contracted by 23.9% y-o-y in Q1 FY21 (April 2020-March 2021), dragged lower by deep contractions in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. A continued acceleration in the Covid-19 outbreak across the nation will continue to delay a return to normalcy in activity in major economic drivers. This will more than offset strengthening of activity in the agriculture sector, where the summer harvest should benefit from good monsoon rainfall, as well as resumption of construction activity nationwide. We have thus revised our forecast for real GDP to contract by 8.6% in FY21, from a 4.5% contraction previously. We now expect the Reserve Bank of India to undertake just 25bps worth of cuts to the benchmark policy repo rate compared with 50bps previously, due to elevated inflation from supply disruptions caused by the Covid-19 outbreak. As a result, we see the repo rate moving to 3.75% by March 2021 (end of FY21) and we maintain our view for the repo rate to fall to 3.50% in FY22, implying another 25bps cut next fiscal year. A cooling in food price pressures following a bumper summer harvest from October 2020 should ease inflation and allow for further monetary easing at the December 2020 and/or the February 2021 meetings to support the ailing economy, which we forecast to contract by 8.6% in FY21. We have revised our fiscal deficit forecast for India's central government to 8.2%, from 7.2% previously. This is due to a quicker than previously anticipated divergence in expenditures and non-debt receipts, which saw the deficit exceed the full year target in only four months. We expect the government to maintain its spending ex- pansion through increased government securities issuances, which would be absorbed by the banking sector under an increased Statutory Liquidity Ratio threshold up to March 31 2021 which allows more funds to be invested in these securities. We have revised our forecast for the Indian rupee to average stronger at INR74.20/USD in 2020, from INR75.00/USD previously, to account for a technical rebound in August on the back of the Reserve Bank of India's intervention. Nonetheless, we expect the rupee to weaken over the short term on the back of bearish technical indicators, weak foreign investor appetite for government issuances and worsening terms of trade. The Indian rupee also remains vulnerable to a sell-off given that Covid-19 is still spreading rapidly in the country, which may complicate policymaking at a time when the country faces medical inflation, and foreign confidence chal- lenges. Over the longer term, we expect rupee overvaluation and higher structural inflation relative to the US to exert downside pressure on the currency and forecast the rupee to average INR77.00/USD in 2021 and INR79.00/USD in 2022. China-India relations have deteriorated following border clashes since May 2020. India, clearly unwilling to confront China militarily, has turned to economic means to retaliate against perceived Chinese aggression along their shared border. Amid a world order increasingly bifurcated between China and the West, we at Fitch Solutions expect India to lean closer to the Western powers in a bid to counter China's growing geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Key Risks Downside Risks To Growth: The Indian government appears to have shifted its focus away from economic reforms in recent months and towards policies which advance its Hindu nationalist agenda, despite growing backlash from the electorate. Elevated social instability and weak economic reform momentum pose downside risks to our view of growth recovery over the coming quarters. Asset quality being likely to worsen again in the banking sector could also further impede monetary policy transmission and reduce the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary easing. The continued pursuit of protectionist policies will also hinder productivity growth. Covid-19 Risks: Over the near term, the knock-on effects of the Covid-19 pandemic presents the key risk across our economic forecasts. Disruptions to domestic economic activity and weak external demand will pose downside risks to real GDP growth; a fiscal stimulus to soften the economic blow of Covid-19 on the Indian economy would see a larger fiscal deficit than we currently forecast; the central bank could ease by more than we expect; and the rupee's weakness may exceed even our bearish expectations on worsening investor sentiment as the virus outbreak gains momentum in the country. India Country Risk Q1 2021fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Indian Economy's Return To Normalcy To Be Delayed By Rife Covid-19 Outbreak
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Elevated Inflation To Delay The End Of India's Monetary Easing Cycle To FY2021/22
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • India's Central Government Fiscal Deficit To Widen In FY21
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • Currency Forecast
  • Increasing Scope For Indian Rupee Weakness
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.India Country Risk Q1 2021Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2029
  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • India's Growing Anti-China Sentiment Spurring A Tilt Towards The West
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Political Stability At Risk
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: INWARD FDI STOCK BY COUNTRY
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Larger Contraction Now, But Stronger Recovery Ahead
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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