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세계의 에너지 시장 예측

Global Energy Forecasts: EnerFuture

리서치사 ENERDATA
발행정보 연간구독 상품 코드 204521
페이지 정보 영문
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세계의 에너지 시장 예측 Global Energy Forecasts: EnerFuture
발행정보 : 페이지 정보 : 영문

 

에너지 모델링 및 예측은 Enerdata의 핵심적인 활동입니다. 본 분야에 대한 Enerdata의 독자적인 전문성과 세계적으로 인정받은 POLES 모델을 이용하여 2040년까지의 세계 에너지 예측에 관한 온라인 서비스를 제공합니다.

서론

  • 세계 에너지 시장에 관한 2040년까지의 예측
  • 부문별, 종류별 에너지 수요 예측
  • 부문별, 에너지별 CO2 배출량 예측
  • 고객 부문별, 에너지별 최종 사용자 가격 예측
  • 연간 예측
  • 옵션: 파워 믹스 모듈(발전 예측 - 사용 연료별 생산량 및 용량)
  • 2012년을 참고년으로 한 2000년 이후의 연간 실적 데이터
  • 세계 60개 국가 및 지역
  • 세계적으로 인정된 POLES 모델에 입각한 에너지 예측

주요 특징

  • 2040년까지의 장기 예측
  • 모든 에너지에 대해 분석
  • 부문별, 에너지별 수요 및 가격 예측
  • 부문별 CO2 배출량 예측
  • 파워 믹스 예측(발전능력과 생산량)
  • 최신 거시경제 상황과 후쿠시마 원자력발전 사고 이후의 사건을 반영한 3가지 상세 시나리오

주요 이점

  • 에너지 예측에서 30년 이상의 경험과 실적을 보유한 모델링팀
  • 에너지 시스템 모델링 및 예측의 세계적 기준인 POLES 모델로부터 추출한 예측 정보
  • 지역별 밸런스 조정에 의한 일관성 있는 글로벌 예측
  • 지역간 에너지 시스템 상호작용 시뮬레이션
  • 부문별 석유, 가스, 석탄, 전력 수요 동향 추적
  • 에너지별 중기적 시장 점유율 예측
  • 이산화탄소 배출 제한이 에너지 가격과 수요에 미치는 영향 평가
  • 가설과 최신 분석을 위한 모델 인풋에 접근

조사 대상 지역 및 국가

유럽 아메리카 아시아 아프리카 중동
오스트리아
벨기에
불가리아
크로아티아
체코
덴마크
핀란드
프랑스
독일
그리스
헝가리
아일랜드
이탈리아
네덜란드
노르웨이
폴란드
포르투갈
루마니아
슬로바키아
슬로베니아
스페인
스웨덴
스위스
터키
영국
발트국가*
EU 27개국*
북미
캐나다
미국
인도
중국
인도네시아
일본
한국
기타 남아시아*
기타 동남아시아*
알제리/리비아*
이집트*
모로코/튀니지*
남아프리카공화국
북아프리카*
기타 사하라 사막
이남 아프리카*
만안국가*
기타*
라틴아메리카
중미 및 카리브 국가
멕시코
기타*
남미
브라질
기타*
오스트랄라시아
OECD Pacific*
CIS
러시아
우크라이나
기타 CIS 국가*

*주 : 가격 예측은 포함되지 않습니다.

LSH 11.08.01

Global, Regional & Country-level Energy and Emissions

Forecasts through 2050 - Including Non-OECD Countries

Based on the globally recognised POLES Model, EnerFuture is used by energy companies, consultancies & governments for strategic planning and policy evaluation.

EnerFuture provides annual projections through 2050, offering clear insight into future energy demand, prices and GHG emissions by energy source or by sector, at the country and regional levels.

EnerFuture brings a consistent set of data on the factors that will impact and shape the future of energy, including energy markets, macro-economy, and long-term climate policies.

Use EnerFuture to anticipate evolutions in your environment and build the appropriate business strategies.

Why Subscribe?

  • Annual energy demand, prices & emissions projections through 2050
  • Historical data through 2018 - the latest available figures
  • Detailed projections for all energy sources
  • Insightful analyses of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices
  • Forecasts categorized by sector
  • Global, regional or country views
  • Three contrasted energy and climate scenarios
  • Consistency in global forecasts by means of regional balances
  • Interactive, user-friendly interface
  • Annual data and scenario updates

Features Overview:

  • Global coverage (65+ countries/aggregates)
  • Annual historical data through 2018
  • Annual projections of the global energy market through 2050
  • Analysis of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices
  • Demand and price forecasts by sector and energy source
  • Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand
  • GHG emissions forecasts by sector
  • Country snapshots and ranking
  • Power mix forecasts (capacities and production by technology) in five-year steps
  • Three detailed scenarios offering contrasting views on technology development, low-carbon energy sources and fossil fuel supply
  • Demand, CO2 and REN indicators
  • Macroeconomic drivers
  • Data export in .csv format to integrate with your own databases and models

EnerFuture Scenarios

Updated annually to take into account recent events.

Ener-Base

  • Lack of support for GHG emission mitigation, affecting the entire energy system over a long period.
  • Energy demand increases globally, driven by economic and population growth.
  • Technological advances and fuel diversification (namely a moderate renewable expansion) slightly curtail the impact on emissions.
  • +5°C to +6°C temp. increase

Ener-Blue

  • Based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDCs announced in the 2015 Paris agreement and since revised.
  • Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth.
  • +3°C to +4°C temp. increase

Ener-Green

  • More stringent climate policies than currently in place
  • Countries fulfil NDCs and regularly revise emissions goals
  • Ambitious climate trajectories specific to each region, built using a new methodology incorporate effort-sharing regulations.
  • Significant improvements in energy efficiency & renewables
  • +2°C temp. increase

Outputs:

  • Energies/Emissions: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and GHG emissions (6 Kyoto gases)
  • Demand: Total demand and demand by sector. Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand
  • Power: Production and capacities by energy type: fossil energies, nuclear, renewables (wind, solar, etc.)
  • Sector: Power production, industry, transport and residential/services/ agriculture
  • Prices: International energy price

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

Features of POLES

  • Disaggregation into 15 energy demand sectors
  • Energy supply: Identification of key market suppliers for oil and gas
  • Oil and gas sectors: Discoveries and reserves for 87 producers
  • International trade: Flows of energy products for oil and natural gas
  • About 40 energy generation technologies:
    • Nearly 30 power generation technologies (incl. conventional, new and renewable)
    • More than 10 hydrogen production technologies
  • GHG Emissions and Abatement Costs (by region, country & sector; sub-sector decomposition for CO2)
  • Assessment of the impacts of climate change policies on energy systems
  • Endogenous international energy prices and markets

Optional Module: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs)

Our supplementary module, GHG Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) , reveals the potential for emissions reductions across economic sectors, and respective costs to reach targets.

Geographic Coverage:

65+ countries and aggregates.

EUROPE

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • The Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Turkey
  • United Kingdom
  • Baltic States*

Europe aggregates

  • Europe
  • European Union*
  • Baltic States(Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)

AMERICAS

  • Canada
  • United States
  • Mexico
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Chile

Amecias aggregates

    North America
  • Latin America
  • Central America*, Mexico* and the Caribbean*
  • Central America* and Caribbean*
  • South America excluding Brazil, Argentina, and Chile(Includes Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolibia, Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay)*

ASIA

  • India
  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Asia aggregates*

  • Aia
  • South Asia(excluding India)
  • Rest of Southeast Asia

PACIFIC

  • Australia
  • Pacific (aggregate)
  • OECD Asia and Pacific(aggregate)

CIS

  • Russia
  • Ukraine

CIS aggregates *

  • CIS
  • Other CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

AFRICA

  • Algeria-Libya*
  • Egypt*
  • Morocco-Tunisia*
  • South Africa

Africa aggregates

  • Africa
  • Northern Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)*

MIDDLE EAST AGGREGATES

  • Middle-East*
  • Gulf Countries*
  • Mediterranean (excl. Gulf countries)*

*Note: Price Forecast unavailable.

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