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세계의 에너지 시장 예측

Global Energy Forecasts: EnerFuture

리서치사 ENERDATA
발행정보 연간구독 상품 코드 204521
페이지 정보 영문
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세계의 에너지 시장 예측 Global Energy Forecasts: EnerFuture
발행정보 : 페이지 정보 : 영문

본 온라인 데이터베이스는 Enerdata 독자의 전문성과 세계에서 인정된 POLES 모델을 사용해 2050년까지 세계의 에너지 예측을 제공합니다. 이 서비스는 국가와 지역 차원의 에너지 수요, 발전량, 가격, 에너지원 및 부문별 온실가스 배출량 전망에 대한 명확한 인사이트를 제공합니다.

본 서비스의 구독을 추천하는 이유

  • 2050년까지 에너지 연간 수요, 가격, 배출량 예측
  • 2018년까지 과거 데이터 - 최신 입수 가능한 수치
  • 모든 에너지원의 상세한 예측
  • 석유, 가스, 석탄 국제 가격 진화의 통찰력 있는 분석
  • 부문별 시장 전망
  • 세계 규모, 지역, 국가별 에너지 시장 평가
  • 대조적인 3개 에너지 및 기후변화 시나리오
  • 지역 밸런스를 고려한 일관성 있는 세계 시장 예측
  • 인터랙티브, 사용자 친화적 인터페이스

본 서비스의 주요 특징과 기능

  • 세계의 65개 이상 국가, 지역을 커버
  • 2018년까지 연간 실적 데이터
  • 2050년까지 세계의 에너지 시장 연간 예측
  • 석유·가스·석탄 국제 가격 진화 분석
  • 분야별·에너지원별 수요·가격 예측
  • 최종 에너지 수요의 전기화 진척도에 관한 지표
  • 부문별 온실가스 배출량 예측
  • 각국의 개요와 순위
  • 파워 믹스(기술별 발전능력·발전량)를 5년 단위로 예측
  • 기술 개발, 저탄소 에너지원, 화석연료 공급에 관한 대조적인 견해를 나타내는 3개 상세 시나리오
  • 수요, CO2, REN 지표
  • 거시경제 촉진요인 분석
  • 독자적인 데이터베이스나 모델과 통합하기 위한 .csv 형식 데이터 export 기능

출력 데이터

  • 에너지/온실가스 배출량 동향 : 석유, 가스, 석탄, 전기, 바이오매스, 온실가스 배출량
  • 수요 동향 : 총수요와 부문별 수요 및 최종 에너지 수요의 전기화 진척도에 관한 지표
  • 발전 상황 : 에너지 종류별 발전량과 발전 용량 - 화석 에너지, 원자력, 자연에너지(풍력, 태양광 등)
  • 부문별 데이터 : 발전, 산업, 수송, 주택/서비스/농업
  • 가격 정보 : 국제 에너지 가격

POLES 모델

장기적 에너지 시스템 전망

POLES 모델은 국제적으로 인지되고 있는 기술 경제 모델입니다. 시뮬레이션은 에너지 가격의 내생적인 예측을 이용해 연단위로 행해집니다. 이것은 다수의 에너지 벡터, 관련 기술, 온실가스 배출량의 에너지 수요/공급의 완전한 회계를 제공하고, 가능한 탄소 제약 수준, 에너지 자원 또는 기술적 가정의 맞춤화와 모델링을 가능하게 합니다.

KSM 20.08.18

Global, Regional & Country-level Energy and Emissions

Forecasts through 2050 - Including Non-OECD Countries

Based on the globally recognised POLES Model, EnerFuture is used by energy companies, consultancies & governments for strategic planning and policy evaluation.

EnerFuture provides annual projections through 2050, offering clear insight into future energy demand, prices and GHG emissions by energy source or by sector, at the country and regional levels.

EnerFuture brings a consistent set of data on the factors that will impact and shape the future of energy, including energy markets, macro-economy, and long-term climate policies.

Use EnerFuture to anticipate evolutions in your environment and build the appropriate business strategies.

Why Subscribe?

  • Annual energy demand, prices & emissions projections through 2050
  • Historical data through 2018 - the latest available figures
  • Detailed projections for all energy sources
  • Insightful analyses of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices
  • Forecasts categorized by sector
  • Global, regional or country views
  • Three contrasted energy and climate scenarios
  • Consistency in global forecasts by means of regional balances
  • Interactive, user-friendly interface
  • Annual data and scenario updates

Features Overview:

  • Global coverage (65+ countries/aggregates)
  • Annual historical data through 2018
  • Annual projections of the global energy market through 2050
  • Analysis of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices
  • Demand and price forecasts by sector and energy source
  • Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand
  • GHG emissions forecasts by sector
  • Country snapshots and ranking
  • Power mix forecasts (capacities and production by technology) in five-year steps
  • Three detailed scenarios offering contrasting views on technology development, low-carbon energy sources and fossil fuel supply
  • Demand, CO2 and REN indicators
  • Macroeconomic drivers
  • Data export in .csv format to integrate with your own databases and models

EnerFuture Scenarios

Updated annually to take into account recent events.

Ener-Base

  • Lack of support for GHG emission mitigation, affecting the entire energy system over a long period.
  • Energy demand increases globally, driven by economic and population growth.
  • Technological advances and fuel diversification (namely a moderate renewable expansion) slightly curtail the impact on emissions.
  • +5°C to +6°C temp. increase

Ener-Blue

  • Based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDCs announced in the 2015 Paris agreement and since revised.
  • Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth.
  • +3°C to +4°C temp. increase

Ener-Green

  • More stringent climate policies than currently in place
  • Countries fulfil NDCs and regularly revise emissions goals
  • Ambitious climate trajectories specific to each region, built using a new methodology incorporate effort-sharing regulations.
  • Significant improvements in energy efficiency & renewables
  • +2°C temp. increase

Outputs:

  • Energies/Emissions: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and GHG emissions (6 Kyoto gases)
  • Demand: Total demand and demand by sector. Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand
  • Power: Production and capacities by energy type: fossil energies, nuclear, renewables (wind, solar, etc.)
  • Sector: Power production, industry, transport and residential/services/ agriculture
  • Prices: International energy price

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

Features of POLES

  • Disaggregation into 15 energy demand sectors
  • Energy supply: Identification of key market suppliers for oil and gas
  • Oil and gas sectors: Discoveries and reserves for 87 producers
  • International trade: Flows of energy products for oil and natural gas
  • About 40 energy generation technologies:
    • Nearly 30 power generation technologies (incl. conventional, new and renewable)
    • More than 10 hydrogen production technologies
  • GHG Emissions and Abatement Costs (by region, country & sector; sub-sector decomposition for CO2)
  • Assessment of the impacts of climate change policies on energy systems
  • Endogenous international energy prices and markets

Optional Module: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs)

Our supplementary module, GHG Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) , reveals the potential for emissions reductions across economic sectors, and respective costs to reach targets.

Geographic Coverage:

65+ countries and aggregates.

EUROPE

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • The Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Turkey
  • United Kingdom
  • Baltic States*

Europe aggregates

  • Europe
  • European Union*
  • Baltic States(Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)

AMERICAS

  • Canada
  • United States
  • Mexico
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Chile

Amecias aggregates

    North America
  • Latin America
  • Central America*, Mexico* and the Caribbean*
  • Central America* and Caribbean*
  • South America excluding Brazil, Argentina, and Chile(Includes Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolibia, Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay)*

ASIA

  • India
  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Malaysia
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Asia aggregates*

  • Aia
  • South Asia(excluding India)
  • Rest of Southeast Asia

PACIFIC

  • Australia
  • Pacific (aggregate)
  • OECD Asia and Pacific(aggregate)

CIS

  • Russia
  • Ukraine

CIS aggregates *

  • CIS
  • Other CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

AFRICA

  • Algeria-Libya*
  • Egypt*
  • Morocco-Tunisia*
  • South Africa

Africa aggregates

  • Africa
  • Northern Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)*

MIDDLE EAST AGGREGATES

  • Middle-East*
  • Gulf Countries*
  • Mediterranean (excl. Gulf countries)*

*Note: Price Forecast unavailable.

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