세계의 에너지 시장 예측

Global, Regional & Country-level Energy and Emissions

Forecasts through 2050 - Including Non-OECD Countries

Based on the globally recognised POLES Model, EnerFuture is used by energy companies, consultancies & governments for strategic planning and policy evaluation.

EnerFuture provides annual projections through 2050, offering clear insight into future energy demand, prices and GHG emissions by energy source or by sector, at the country and regional levels.

EnerFuture brings a consistent set of data on the factors that will impact and shape the future of energy, including energy markets, macro-economy, and long-term climate policies.

Use EnerFuture to anticipate evolutions in your environment and build the appropriate business strategies.

Why Subscribe?

• Annual energy demand, prices & emissions projections through 2050

• Historical data through 2018 - the latest available figures

• Detailed projections for all energy sources

• Insightful analyses of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices

• Forecasts categorized by sector

• Global, regional or country views

• Three contrasted energy and climate scenarios

• Consistency in global forecasts by means of regional balances

• Interactive, user-friendly interface

• Annual data and scenario updates

Features Overview:

• Global coverage (65+ countries/aggregates)

• Annual historical data through 2018

• Annual projections of the global energy market through 2050

• Analysis of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices

• Demand and price forecasts by sector and energy source

• Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand

• GHG emissions forecasts by sector

• Country snapshots and ranking

• Power mix forecasts (capacities and production by technology) in five-year steps

• Three detailed scenarios offering contrasting views on technology development, low-carbon energy sources and fossil fuel supply

• Demand, CO2 and REN indicators

• Macroeconomic drivers

• Data export in .csv format to integrate with your own databases and models

EnerFuture Scenarios

Updated annually to take into account recent events.

Ener-Base

• Lack of support for GHG emission mitigation, affecting the entire energy system over a long period.

• Energy demand increases globally, driven by economic and population growth.

• Technological advances and fuel diversification (namely a moderate renewable expansion) slightly curtail the impact on emissions.

• +5°C to +6°C temp. increase

Ener-Blue

• Based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDCs announced in the 2015 Paris agreement and since revised.

• Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth.

• +3°C to +4°C temp. increase

Ener-Green

• More stringent climate policies than currently in place

• Countries fulfil NDCs and regularly revise emissions goals

• Ambitious climate trajectories specific to each region, built using a new methodology incorporate effort-sharing regulations.

• Significant improvements in energy efficiency & renewables

• +2°C temp. increase

Outputs:

• Energies/Emissions: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and GHG emissions (6 Kyoto gases)

• Demand: Total demand and demand by sector. Indicator on the degree of electrification of the final energy demand

• Power: Production and capacities by energy type: fossil energies, nuclear, renewables (wind, solar, etc.)

• Sector: Power production, industry, transport and residential/services/ agriculture

• Prices: International energy price

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

The POLES Model

Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

The POLES Model is an internationally recognized techno-economic model. The simulation occurs on a year-to-year basis, with endogenous projection of energy prices. It provides a complete accounting of energy demand/supply of numerous energy vectors, associated technologies and greenhouse gases emissions, and enables the customization and modeling of possible carbon constraints levels, energy resources or technological assumptions.

Features of POLES

• Disaggregation into 15 energy demand sectors

• Energy supply: Identification of key market suppliers for oil and gas

• Oil and gas sectors: Discoveries and reserves for 87 producers

• International trade: Flows of energy products for oil and natural gas

• About 40 energy generation technologies:
  • Nearly 30 power generation technologies (incl. conventional, new and renewable)
  • More than 10 hydrogen production technologies

• GHG Emissions and Abatement Costs (by region, country & sector; sub-sector decomposition for CO2)

• Assessment of the impacts of climate change policies on energy systems

• Endogenous international energy prices and markets

Optional Module: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs)

Our supplementary module, GHG Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) , reveals the potential for emissions reductions across economic sectors, and respective costs to reach targets.

Geographic Coverage:

65+ countries and aggregates.

EUROPE Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy The Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Baltic States* Europe aggregates Europe European Union* Baltic States(Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)

AMERICAS Canada United States Mexico Brazil Argentina Chile Amecias aggregates North America Latin America Central America*, Mexico* and the Caribbean* Central America* and Caribbean* South America excluding Brazil, Argentina, and Chile(Includes Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolibia, Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay)*

ASIA India China Indonesia Japan South Korea Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Asia aggregates* Aia South Asia(excluding India) Rest of Southeast Asia PACIFIC Australia Pacific (aggregate) OECD Asia and Pacific(aggregate) CIS Russia Ukraine CIS aggregates * CIS Other CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

AFRICA Algeria-Libya* Egypt* Morocco-Tunisia* South Africa Africa aggregates Africa Northern Africa Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)* MIDDLE EAST AGGREGATES Middle-East* Gulf Countries* Mediterranean (excl. Gulf countries)*

^*Note: Price Forecast unavailable.