Main Mobile Brands' Status
Worldwide Smartphone Market
Smartphones are entering a stage of stagnant demand this year, as the replacement demands for 4G smartphones have slackened, while 5G smartphones are still in the offing. The shrinking difference among smartphone specs, continuously rising production costs, and lowered subsidies from carriers will all have a negative impact on this smartphone sales.
Memory(DRAM & NAND Flash)
Mobile DRAM Revenue Market Distribution
- Mobile DRAM market revenue share still stands at No. 1 from the beginning of 2015.
- At present, the market is still being led by Samsung.
Mobile NAND Flash -Architecture
Given the capacity expansions for 64/72 - layer 3D NAND flash by suppliers and the demands for higher-density products, 3D NAND eMMC/UFS will become the market mainstream in 2018, relegating the 2D architecture to niche markets.
AP & Modem
2018 H1 Premium AP Development
- Premium AP's SPEC are 10nm and LTE Cat.18 / AI support
- In 2018 H2, 7nm will be ready from TSMC
- Mali-G72 is mainstream for Premium AP
- LTE Cat.20 is ready in 2018 H2 and 2019 H1
Although the extent of Apple employing AMOLED panelsis lower than originally expected in 2018, with a growth rate higher than 2017, the share of the AMOLED models in the total smartphone market is still likely to reach 30.3% during the year.
LTPS suffers acute price competition on oversupply, which, plus the demands for LTPS panels induced by the ir deployment in 18:9 models, will enhance the share of LTPS products to 39% in 2018.
In the mid -to low- tier markets, despite the pressures from LTPS and AMOLED specifications, the share of a-Si models may still stand at 30.7% in 2018, due to the effect of the 18:9 panels and the replacement demand in emerging markets.
LTPS prices dropped further on over capacity and it remains to be seen whether the drop will moderate in the second half.
With prices approaching that of 16:9 panels rapidly, quotes for 18:9 panels may substitute for quotes for 16:9 panels directly in the end.
Demands for rigid AMOLED panels slackened in 1Q18, which, plus rapid drop of LTPS prices, will trigger a price decline for AMOLED panels and facilitate its sales.
- Within tegrated touch and display technology maturing, Android brands,led by OPPO/VIVO, are expected to embrace the technologyin Q2-Q3, promising significant business opportunities fo rNovatek, thanks to its solid capacity and technology.
- Demands for integrated touch and display SoCs have risen sharply, which, plus limited capacity of wafer suppliers, will lead to price hike for such chips for the first time.The balance between supply and demand will not resume until 2019, following the addition of new capacities.
Apple will apply Face ID technology in iPhones massively in 2018, which, plus the Face Identification fad in the Android camp, will lead to a rapid increase of the technology's penetrationrate in 2018 and 2019. In 2019, fingerprint identification technology will witness a slight drop for the first time.
Samsung's technology of combining iris identification with facial recognition will retain some market share for a while.
3D Sensing Solutions for Smartphone (2)
- Mobile Brands: Apple : Same solution as iPhone X but are in 3 types of iPhone in 2018.
- Mobile Brands: OPPO/VIVO : There are opportunities for cooperation
- Google Tango
- Mobile Brands: Lenovo : Phab2 Pro in 2016 used Tango; Asus : ZenFoneAR in 2017 used Tango.
- Mobile Brands: Apple : Could use Sony's CIS for TOF solution in iPhone's back in 2019.
- Mobile Brands: HUAWEI : Own solution, but product delayed to 2018 H2.
- Mobile Brands: Samsung :No 3D sensing phone in 2018, but could release one in 2019; Xiaomi :Mantis-Vision's solution on Xiaomi8 will launch.
AR/VR & New Application
VR Devices' Shipments by Brands, 2017~2018
- Microsoft VR(Mixed Reality Headset) includes Acer, Asus, Lenovo, HP, Dell, 3Glasses, and Samsung. Only Samsung's Odyssey is still under production. Others, like Quanta, have stopped production.
- The estimated shipments of Oculus Go (including the Xiaomi version) is 0.5 million units. The other 0.4 million units belongs to Oculus Rift.
- The share of HTC's PC-based and standalone VR should be five-five.
- HUAWEI's VR 2 will have a shipment volume of 0.1 million units in 2018.
Standalone VR Devices are the Focus in 2018
Standalone VR devices are not the same as PC-based VR devices, but more like mobile devices. The product development are difficult even for the brands who have other VR development experience. The schedules of most standalone devices, especially high end products, are being delayed, so the most important products in 2018 are Oculus Go and HTC Vive Focus.
Xiaomi has helped Oculus to cut into the China market. More companies, such as Lenovo, HP or other Chinese brands, are planning on following this cooperation model.
VIVE Wave has convinced some Mobile VR brands and content providers to join HTC's side, but Xiaomi's participation is making HTC lose its advantage in the China market.