세계의 TRISO(Tri-structural Isotropic) 연료 시장 : 유형별, 리액터 유형별, 형상별, 최종사용자별, 지역별 - 시장 규모, 산업 역학, 기회 분석, 예측(2025-2033년)

The Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel market is undergoing a period of remarkable growth and transformation. Valued at approximately US$ 382.49 million in 2024, the market is projected to reach a valuation of US$ 554.28 million by 2033. This growth corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.28% over the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. The increasing momentum is largely driven by advanced reactor developers who have successfully converted regulatory approvals and funding milestones into concrete, firm orders for TRISO fuel, signaling a transition from exploratory research to commercial-scale deployment.

Today, TRISO fuel has become a fundamental element in the global push toward advanced nuclear energy solutions. Its reputation for exceptional safety performance positions it as a preferred choice for new reactor designs. This is largely due to its multi-layered coating structure, which effectively traps fission products even under extreme operating conditions such as high temperatures and radiation flux. This capability significantly enhances the safety profile of reactors utilizing TRISO fuel, making it an attractive option for both regulators and operators.

Noteworthy Market Developments

In the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel market, BWX Technologies, X-Energy, and Framatome collectively dominate, capturing over 70% of the market share. Each company brings unique strengths and capabilities that reinforce its leadership position while driving innovation and scale within the industry.

BWX Technologies has firmly established itself as a market leader by leveraging its deep expertise in nuclear fuel manufacturing and integrated production processes. Operating high-capacity fabrication lines at several facilities across the United States, BWX produces more than 1,000 kilograms of TRISO kernels annually. The company's manufacturing processes consistently achieve yield rates exceeding 90%, reflecting a strong focus on quality control and efficiency.

X-Energy stands out as a dynamic innovator within the TRISO fuel market, distinguished by its development of an integrated fabrication facility combined with proprietary control protocols. Its high-throughput TRISO coating line processes over 1,500 kilograms of kernels annually, surpassing many competitors in scale. What sets X-Energy apart is its use of granular digital-twin simulations alongside real-time spectral monitoring techniques.

Core Growth Drivers

Federal and state incentives are significantly reshaping demand dynamics in the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, transforming what was once mainly theoretical interest into concrete, funded pilot projects. A key driver of this shift is the Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45Y production tax credit, which was finalized in February 2024. This tax credit guarantees payments of up to USD 43 per megawatt-hour for advanced reactors with capacities under 300 megawatts electric (MWe). Notably, this financial support directly benefits reactor designs such as Xe-100, eVinci, and BWXT Advanced Nuclear Reactors, all of which specify the use of TRISO fuel as a core component of their technology.

In addition to the tax credit, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has bolstered support through substantial funding allocations in fiscal year 2024. Under the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), the DOE has committed USD 420 million to support various initiatives aimed at accelerating advanced reactor development. A significant portion of this funding-38%-is specifically designated for activities critical to TRISO fuel advancement, including fuel qualification, procurement of high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), and coated-particle fabrication.

Emerging Opportunity Trends

A major trend driving growth in the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market is the investment by manufacturers in larger fabrication lines aimed at improving throughput yields. In 2024, scaling initiatives have taken center stage as companies compete to increase production capacity while simultaneously reducing unit costs. This focus on expansion and efficiency enhancement reflects the increasing demand for TRISO fuel and the need to meet tight production schedules without sacrificing quality.

One notable example of this trend is BWX Technologies, which completed Phase 2 of its Lynchburg facility expansion in March 2024. This development significantly boosted the company's kernel sintering capacity, raising it to 12 metric tons per year. Kernel sintering is a critical step in TRISO fuel fabrication, where uranium kernels are processed to achieve the desired density and microstructure. Enhancing this capacity enables BWX Technologies to produce more fuel kernels within the same timeframe, supporting larger-scale manufacturing efforts.

Barriers to Optimization

Despite strong policy support for the advancement of Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel, the supply chain for silicon-carbide (SiC) coating materials remains fragmented, posing a significant risk to maintaining project schedules within the market. Silicon-carbide coatings are critical components in TRISO fuel particles, providing essential structural integrity and acting as a barrier to contain fission products. However, the availability of nuclear-grade alpha-SiC powders with extremely low impurity levels-measured in sub-parts per million-is limited to only a handful of qualified suppliers worldwide.

As of August 2024, just three vendors are certified to produce these high-purity powders: Morgan Advanced Materials in the United Kingdom, Washington Mills in the United States, and Tokai Carbon in Japan. Together, these suppliers have a combined annual production capacity of approximately 900 tonnes. While this may seem substantial, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) projects that demand for SiC powder in TRISO fuel applications is expected to rise sharply, reaching an estimated 1,250 tonnes per year by 2028.

Detailed Market Segmentation

By Type, uranium-based TRISO fuel holds a dominant position in the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, capturing an 85.56% share. This strong preference is largely due to its compatibility with existing nuclear fuel infrastructure, including enrichment, conversion, and deconversion facilities that are already optimized to handle high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) up to 19.75%. Because these facilities are well-established and extensively utilized, uranium-based TRISO fuel benefits from economies of scale and streamlined processing pathways that significantly reduce the need for new capital investments.

By Reactor Type, High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) hold a commanding position in the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, accounting for 50.48% of the market share. This dominance stems from the reactor's ability to leverage the exceptional temperature resistance of TRISO fuel, allowing it to operate at outlet temperatures nearing 750 °C without relying on active water cooling systems. The inherent robustness of TRISO particles enables the reactor core to sustain these high temperatures safely, which is a significant advantage over traditional reactor designs that depend heavily on water for cooling.

By Form Type, pebble fuel elements dominate the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, capturing 61% of the market share. Their spherical geometry plays a crucial role in this leadership position, as it significantly streamlines both manufacturing throughput and core reactor operations. The round shape facilitates smoother handling and processing compared to other fuel forms, which contributes to increased efficiency and reduced complexity in production lines.

By End User, nuclear power utilities hold a significant 49.18% share of the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, reflecting their unique ability to leverage the advanced characteristics of TRISO fuel within the framework of regulated-rate-base assets. These utilities are well-positioned to incorporate the benefits of TRISO fuel-such as enhanced safety, higher efficiency, and longer lifespans-into their operational and financial models, which are overseen by state regulatory commissions.

Segment Breakdown

By Type

• Uranium-based TRISO Fuel
• Thorium-based TRISO Fuel
• Mixed Oxide (MOX) TRISO Fuel

By Reactor Type

• High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs)
  • Prismatic Reactors
  • Pebble-Bed Reactors
• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
• Micro Reactors
• Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs)
• Others

By Form Type

• Cylindrical Pellets
• Pebbles

By End User

• Nuclear Power Utilities
• Government Research Institutions
• Private Advanced Reactor Developers
• Defense & Aerospace Organizations
• Universities and Academic Institutions

By Region

• North America
  • The U.S.
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Western Europe
    • The UK
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Rest of Western Europe
  • Eastern Europe
    • Poland
    • Russia
    • Rest of Eastern Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia & New Zealand
  • South Korea
  • ASEAN
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• Middle East & Africa (MEA)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • UAE
  • Rest of MEA
• South America
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Rest of South America

Geography Breakdown

North America holds a commanding position in the Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market, accounting for over 37.57% of the global share. This dominant stance results from a convergence of factors, including robust federal incentives, well-established enrichment infrastructure, and strong utility-driven purchasing behaviors, which together create a self-reinforcing cycle of demand.

A significant boost came in February 2024 with the finalization of the Inflation Reduction Act credit, which provides USD 43 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for advanced reactors. This financial incentive immediately strengthened fuel contracts for notable projects such as X-energy's Xe-100 modules located in Washington State, as well as Dow's process-heat units in Texas.

In addition to direct incentives, parallel streams of government funding further support this growth trajectory. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has committed an additional USD 420 million to its Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, with 38% of these funds specifically earmarked for TRISO fuel qualification and high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) procurement. This targeted investment is critical for advancing the technical readiness and supply chain development of TRISO fuel.

Leading Market Participants

• X Energy, LLC
• Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation (USNC)
• JAEA (Japan Atomic Energy Agency)
• BWX Technologies, Inc.
• Framatome
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
• Global Nuclear Fuel
• Other Prominent Players

Table of Content

Chapter 1. Research Framework

• 1.1. Research Objective
• 1.2. Product Overview
• 1.3. Market Segmentation

Chapter 2. Research Methodology

• 2.1. Qualitative Research
  • 2.1.1. Primary & Secondary Sources
• 2.2. Quantitative Research
  • 2.2.1. Primary & Secondary Sources
• 2.3. Breakdown of Primary Research Respondents, By Region
• 2.4. Assumption for the Study
• 2.5. Market Size Estimation
• 2.6. Data Triangulation

Chapter 3. Executive Summary: Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market

Chapter 4. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Overview

• 4.1. Industry Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.1.1. Material Provider
  • 4.1.2. Manufacturer
  • 4.1.3. Distributor
  • 4.1.4. End User
• 4.2. Industry Outlook
  • 4.2.1. Overview of nuclear power development in 2023, By Country
• 4.3. PESTLE Analysis
• 4.4. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • 4.4.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.4.2. Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.4.3. Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.4.4. Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.4.5. Degree of Competition
• 4.5. Market Dynamics and Trends
  • 4.5.1. Growth Drivers
  • 4.5.2. Restraints
  • 4.5.3. Challenges
  • 4.5.4. Key Trends
• 4.6. Market Growth and Outlook
  • 4.6.1. Market Revenue Estimates and Forecast (US$ Mn), 2020 - 2033
  • 4.6.2. Price Trend Analysis
• 4.7. Competition Dashboard
  • 4.7.1. Market Concentration Rate
  • 4.7.2. Company Market Share Analysis (Value %), 2024
  • 4.7.3. Competitor Mapping & Benchmarking
• 4.8. Actionable Insights (Analyst Recommendation's)
  • 4.8.1. Strategic Responses of Companies to the Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Chapter 5. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis, By Type

• 5.1. Key Insights
• 5.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 5.2.1. Uranium-based TRISO Fuel
  • 5.2.2. Thorium-based TRISO Fuel
  • 5.2.3. Mixed Oxide (MOX) TRISO Fuel

Chapter 6. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis, By Reactor Type

• 6.1. Key Insights
• 6.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 6.2.1. High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs)
    • 6.2.1.1. Prismatic Reactors
    • 6.2.1.2. Pebble-Bed Reactors
  • 6.2.2. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
  • 6.2.3. Micro Reactors
  • 6.2.4. Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs)
  • 6.2.5. Others

Chapter 7. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis, By Form Type

• 7.1. Key Insights
• 7.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 7.2.1. Cylindrical Pellets
  • 7.2.2. Pebbles

Chapter 8. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis, By End User

• 8.1. Key Insights
• 8.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 8.2.1. Nuclear Power Utilities
  • 8.2.2. Government Research Institutions
  • 8.2.3. Private Advanced Reactor Developers
  • 8.2.4. Defense & Aerospace Organizations
  • 8.2.5. Universities and Academic Institutions

Chapter 9. Global Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis, By Region

• 9.1. Key Insights
• 9.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 9.2.1. North America
    • 9.2.1.1. The U.S.
    • 9.2.1.2. Canada
    • 9.2.1.3. Mexico
  • 9.2.2. Europe
    • 9.2.2.1. Western Europe
      • 9.2.2.1.1. The UK
      • 9.2.2.1.2. Germany
      • 9.2.2.1.3. France
      • 9.2.2.1.4. Italy
      • 9.2.2.1.5. Spain
      • 9.2.2.1.6. Rest of Western Europe
    • 9.2.2.2. Eastern Europe
      • 9.2.2.2.1. Poland
      • 9.2.2.2.2. Russia
      • 9.2.2.2.3. Rest of Eastern Europe
  • 9.2.3. Asia Pacific
    • 9.2.3.1. China
    • 9.2.3.2. India
    • 9.2.3.3. Japan
    • 9.2.3.4. South Korea
    • 9.2.3.5. Australia & New Zealand
    • 9.2.3.6. ASEAN
      • 9.2.3.6.1. Indonesia
      • 9.2.3.6.2. Thailand
      • 9.2.3.6.3. Singapore
      • 9.2.3.6.4. Vietnam
      • 9.2.3.6.5. Malaysia
      • 9.2.3.6.6. Philippines
      • 9.2.3.6.7. Rest of ASEAN
    • 9.2.3.7. Rest of Asia Pacific
  • 9.2.4. Middle East & Africa
    • 9.2.4.1. UAE
    • 9.2.4.2. Saudi Arabia
    • 9.2.4.3. South Africa
    • 9.2.4.4. Rest of MEA
  • 9.2.5. South America
    • 9.2.5.1. Argentina
    • 9.2.5.2. Brazil
    • 9.2.5.3. Rest of South America

Chapter 10. North America Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis

• 10.1. Key Insights
• 10.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 10.2.1. By Type
  • 10.2.2. By Reactor Type
  • 10.2.3. By Form Type
  • 10.2.4. By End User
  • 10.2.5. By Country

Chapter 11. Europe Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis

• 11.1. Key Insights
• 11.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 11.2.1. By Type
  • 11.2.2. By Reactor Type
  • 11.2.3. By Form Type
  • 11.2.4. By End User
  • 11.2.5. By Country

Chapter 12. Asia Pacific Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis

• 12.1. Key Insights
• 12.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 12.2.1. By Type
  • 12.2.2. By Reactor Type
  • 12.2.3. By Form Type
  • 12.2.4. By End User
  • 12.2.5. By Country

Chapter 13. Middle East and Africa Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis

• 13.1. Key Insights
• 13.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 13.2.1. By Type
  • 13.2.2. By Reactor Type
  • 13.2.3. By Form Type
  • 13.2.4. By End User
  • 13.2.5. By Country

Chapter 14. South America Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) Fuel Market Analysis

• 14.1. Key Insights
• 14.2. Market Size and Forecast, 2020 - 2033 (US$ Mn)
  • 14.2.1. By Type
  • 14.2.2. By Reactor Type
  • 14.2.3. By Form Type
  • 14.2.4. By End User
  • 14.2.5. By Country

Chapter 15. Company Profile (Company Overview, Financial Matrix, Key Product landscape, Key Personnel, Key Competitors, Contact Address, and Business Strategy Outlook)

• 15.1. X Energy, LLC
• 15.2. Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation (USNC)
• 15.3. JAEA (Japan Atomic Energy Agency)
• 15.4. BWX Technologies, Inc.
• 15.5. Framatome
• 15.6. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
• 15.7. Global Nuclear Fuel

Chapter 16 Annexure

• 16.1. List of Secondary Sources
• 16.2. Key Country Markets- Macro Economic Outlook/Indicators