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국가위험도 리포트 : 인도

India Country Risk Report Q4 2019

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 08월 상품 코드 203079
페이지 정보 영문 75 Pages
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US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,521,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 인도 India Country Risk Report Q4 2019
발행일 : 2019년 08월 페이지 정보 : 영문 75 Pages

인도의 실질 GDP 성장률은 높은 기저효과와 제조업 쇠퇴에 의해 전년도 같은 기간의 8.2%에서 7.1%로 대폭 하락했습니다. 2사분기의 성장 감속을 반영하여 2018년 3월의 성장 예측은 7.3%에서 7.1%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 전체적인 인플레율은 지금까지 예측보다 완만해질 것으로 보이기 때문에 인도준비은행(RBI)은 레포금리를 2018-2019년간은 6.5%, 2019-202년간은 6.75%로 설정할 전망입니다. 원유가격 반동이 인도의 무역 조건 악화를 야기하고, 루피는 다시 약화될 것으로 예측됩니다. 또, 정치적인 불확실성, 신용 디폴트 스왑(CDS) 확대, 재정 악화 가능성 등도 루피 약세의 원인이 될 가능성이 있습니다.

인도의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 정치 및 쉐도우 뱅킹(그림자 금융) 역풍으로 인도의 성장이 둔화
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 인도의 금융 긴축을 지지하는 소프트 인플레이션
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 인도의 높은 선거비용에 기인한 2018년 재정 적자
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 단기적으로는 인도 루피가 약화
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 인도의 경제
  • 인도의 성장은 기대에 부응하는가?
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 주(州) 선거 패전에 의해 나렌드라 모디 수상의 재선 전망은 어둡다
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 비즈니스를 중요시하는 입장으로 전환
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 변동성이 성장 둔화로 연결
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

Key View:

India's real GDP growth printed its lowest reading in five years at 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19 (April - March), slowing from 6.6% y-o-y in the previous quarter, due to a larger drag from net exports, a collapse in gross fixed capital formation growth, and slower private consumption growth. This brought the full year growth to 6.8%. At Fitch Solutions, we expect a gradual rebound in domestic demand on the back of receding political uncertainty following the 2019 Lower House elections to lift the headline growth print over FY2019/20. We are maintaining our forecast for growth in FY2019/20 to come in at 6.8%, unchanged from FY2018/19. Risks to our forecast are evenly balanced.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy repurchase (repo) and reverse repo rates by 25bps to 5.75% and 5.50%, respectively, at its June 6 monetary policy meeting. We at Fitch Solutions now see scope for an additional 25bps worth of easing from the RBI by end-FY2019/20 (April - March), which would take the repo and reverse repo rates to 5.50% and 5.25%, respectively. Subdued inflation and an increasingly uncertain economic growth environment inform our view for further easing.

We at Fitch Solutions maintain our view for India's central government fiscal deficit to come in at 3.6% in FY2019/20, wider than the government's 3.4% estimate during its interim Union Budget in February. Both upside pressure to fiscal spending and downside pressure to revenue collection inform our view for a mild fiscal slippage in FY2019/20. That said, we will be reviewing our forecasts after the release of the full FY2019/20 Union Budget on July 5. We expect the Indian rupee to weaken slightly over the near term as the central bank will likely continued to favour a pro-growth stance over the coming months. Indian rupee gains are likely to be capped by foreign exchange market interventions by the central bank to support export competitiveness, while further interest rate cuts narrow interest rate differentials with the US and exert weakening pressure on the currency. Over the longer term, while an expensive rupee, higher inflation in India relative to the US, and periods of risk-off sentiment should exert some downside pressure on the unit, an increasingly dovish US Fed rhetoric should put a floor to rupee weakness against the greenback. Accordingly, we at Fitch Solutions are revising our forecasts slightly for the rupee to average INR70.50/USD in 2019 and INR72.00/USD in 2020, from INR71.50/USD and INR73.00/USD previously.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP-led NDA swept the 2019 India Lower House elections, with the NDA garnering an absolute majority of 350 seats in the 545-member Lower House. At Fitch Solutions, we believe this is the best possible outcome from an investment perspective over the coming five years given the implied policy continuity and likely continued progress of economic reforms. That said, risks to watch over the coming quarters include rising religious tensions, the NDA government's approach to US-India trade negotiations, and any renewed tensions with neighbouring Pakistan.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks To Growth: We expect slowing global economic growth to pose headwinds to India's 'Make in India' campaign through slower foreign direct invest- ments growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there is also the risk of banking sector asset quality worsening following the central bank's revision to its stress asset resolution framework in June 2019, which appears to show a softer stance towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the sector. A high load of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets will reduce monetary policy transmission as banks, with a high level of risk on their books, would be unwilling to lower their lending interest rates in line with policy interest rates. Poor monetary policy transmission could see growth underperform our expectations. India Country Risk Q4 2019fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Rebound To Support India's Growth In FY2019/20
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Further Monetary Easing On The Cards For India
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • India's Fiscal Deficit Likely To Widen In FY2019/20
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • India Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • Modest Weakness For The Indian Rupee For The Rest Of 2019
    • TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Indian Economy To 2028
  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Win For Modi's NDA: Positive For The Indian Economy, But Sectarian Tensions Loom
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • A Second Chance To Reform The Indian Economy
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: INDIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
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