Global Information
회사소개 | 문의 | 위시리스트

국가위험도 리포트 : 인도

India Country Risk Report Q1 2020

리서치사 Fitch Solutions, Inc.
발행일 2019년 10월 상품 코드 203079
페이지 정보 영문 91 Pages
가격
US $ 1,245 ₩ 1,459,000 PDF by E-mail (Single User License) - Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates


국가위험도 리포트 : 인도 India Country Risk Report Q1 2020
발행일 : 2019년 10월 페이지 정보 : 영문 91 Pages

인도의 실질 GDP 성장률은 높은 기저효과와 제조업 쇠퇴에 의해 전년도 같은 기간의 8.2%에서 7.1%로 대폭 하락했습니다. 2사분기의 성장 감속을 반영하여 2018년 3월의 성장 예측은 7.3%에서 7.1%로 하향 수정되었습니다. 전체적인 인플레율은 지금까지 예측보다 완만해질 것으로 보이기 때문에 인도준비은행(RBI)은 레포금리를 2018-2019년간은 6.5%, 2019-202년간은 6.75%로 설정할 전망입니다. 원유가격 반동이 인도의 무역 조건 악화를 야기하고, 루피는 다시 약화될 것으로 예측됩니다. 또, 정치적인 불확실성, 신용 디폴트 스왑(CDS) 확대, 재정 악화 가능성 등도 루피 약세의 원인이 될 가능성이 있습니다.

인도의 국가위험도(Country Risk)에 대해 조사했으며, 경제적·정치적 위험 개요, SWOT 분석, 경제 성장 전망과 동향, 금융 정책, 시장 예측, 국내외 정치 정세 등에 대해 정리했습니다.

목차

주요 요약

  • Core View
  • 주요 위험
  • 국가위험도 개요
  • 경제적 위험 지수
  • 정치적 위험 지수
  • SWOT 분석
  • 경제 : SWOT 분석
  • 정치 : SWOT 분석
  • 경제 전망
  • 경제 성장 전망
  • 정치 및 쉐도우 뱅킹(그림자 금융) 역풍으로 인도의 성장이 둔화
  • 지출별 GDP 전망
  • 외부 지위 전망
  • 금융 정책
  • 인도의 금융 긴축을 지지하는 소프트 인플레이션
  • 금융 정책
  • 재정 정책과 공적 채무 전망
  • 인도의 높은 선거비용에 기인한 2018년 재정 적자
  • 구조적 재정 상태
  • 통화 예측
  • 단기적으로는 인도 루피가 약화
  • 본 보고서는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research가 공표한 것으로, Fitch Ratings 신용 등급이 아닙니다. 보고서에 포함되는 논평이나 데이터는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 독립된 정보 출처를 통해서만 얻은 것입니다. Fitch Ratings의 애널리스트는 Fitch Solutions Macro Research와 데이터를 공유하고 있지 않습니다.
  • 2028년까지 인도의 경제
  • 인도의 성장은 기대에 부응하는가?
  • 정치적 전망
  • 국내 정치
  • 주(州) 선거 패전에 의해 나렌드라 모디 수상의 재선 전망은 어둡다
  • 장기적인 정치 전망
  • 비즈니스를 중요시하는 입장으로 전환
  • 운용 위험
  • 분쟁 위험
  • 운송 네트워크
  • 세계의 거시적 동향 전망
  • 변동성이 성장 둔화로 연결
  • 색인표
LSH 19.04.24

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

Key View:

India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth. While we continue to forecast growth to pick up over the coming quarters, supported by reforms, fiscal stimulus and favourable base effects, we now expect the rebound to be weaker than before, given a subdued external and private consumption outlook. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in FY2019/20, down from 6.8% previously.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark repurchase and reverse repurchase rates by 35 basis points (bps) at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively. Given that the extent of monetary easing in the 2019 year-to-date still appears to be insufficient in lifting economic activity, we expect the RBI to cut its policy interest rates by a further 40bps by the end of March 2020. Subdued inflationary pressures, combined with an urgent need to provide further economic stimulus to support economic activity inform our view for further easing. Risks to our forecast are still weighted to the downside, as a poor monetary policy transmission mechanism in India could necessitate steeper interest rate cuts than we currently expect. We have revised our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20. We continue to believe that the government's revenue projections are too rosy, and this will likely see the government miss its goal of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3.0% by FY2020/21. The expenditure allocation of the full Union Budget remains consistent with the interim budget. Efforts to introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth over and above the interim budget appear to be lacking in the full budget.

We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar. Over the short term, a narrowing of real interest differentials with the US and a worsening terms of trade would put pressure on the rupee, while the central bank's focus on growth support would likely spur foreign exchange market interventions to limit rupee strength. Over the longer term, rupee overvaluation, higher inflation in India relative to the US, and periods of risk-off sentiment should exert downside pressure on the currency, although a possible further dovish turn by the US Federal Reserve could put a floor to this weakness. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for the rupee to average INR70.50/USD in 2019, but are revising our forecast for the rupee to average INR74.00/USD in 2020, from INR72.00/USD previously.

We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir. While not our core view, we see rising risk of military conflict between India and Pakistan, given the likelihood of an extended Indian military presence in Kashmir, and Pakistan's interest in challenging India's control of the region. China, an interested third party, is unlikely to materially intervene in the conflict as long as the Line of Actual Control separating it and India is respected. In light of ongoing elevated tensions between the two nations, we are revising our Short-Term Political Risk Index scores for India and Pakistan to 67.6 and 47.1 respectively out of 100, from 71.0 and 47.5 previously.

Key Risks:

Downside Risks To Growth: We expect slowing global economic growth to pose headwinds to India's Make in India campaign through slower foreign direct invest- ments growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, there is also the risk of banking sector asset quality worsening following the central bank's revision to its stress asset resolution framework in June 2019, which appears to show a softer stance towards the resolution of non-performing loans in the sector. A high load of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets will reduce monetary policy transmission as banks, with a high level of risk on their books, would be unwilling to lower their lending interest rates in line with policy interest rates. Poor monetary policy transmission could see growth underperform our expectations.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks

Country Risk Summary

  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index

SWOT

  • Economic – SWOT Analysis
  • Political – SWOT Analysis

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth Outlook

  • Growth To Record A Softer Rebound Over FY2019/20
    • India's real GDP growth slumped even further in Q1 of FY2019/20 (April-March) to 5.0% y-o-y, from 5.8% y-o-y in Q4 FY2018/19, due mainly to a sharp slowdown in private consumption growth
  • TABLE: FDI REFORMS ANNOUNCED ON AUGUST 29

GDP By Expenditure Outlook

  • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
  • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
  • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
  • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS

Outlook On External Position

  • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
  • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Monetary Policy

  • Reserve Bank Of India's Easing Cycle Has More Room To Run
    • The RBI cut its benchmark repo and reverse repo rates by 35bps at its August 7 monetary policy meeting to 5.40% and 5.15% respectively

Monetary Policy Framework

  • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS

Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook

  • India's Full FY2019/20 Union Budget Providing Little Stimulus On Top Of Interim Budget
    • We at Fitch Solutions are revising our forecast for the Indian central government fiscal deficit to 3.4%, from 3.6% previously, which continues to reflect our view for the government to miss its revised 3.3% fiscal deficit target for FY2019/20
  • TABLE: KEY EXPENDITURE ANNOUNCEMENTS
  • TABLE: REVENUE SIDE MEASURES

Structural Fiscal Position

  • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS

Currency Forecast

  • Indian Rupee Weakness To Persist
    • We expect the Indian rupee to remain on a broad depreciatory path against the US dollar
  • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST

10-Year Forecast

The Indian Economy To 2028

  • Will Indian Growth Live Up To Expectations?
    • Improving demographics, structural reforms and trade liberalisation in India during the 1990s set the stage for an explosion in the country's domestic savings rate, which, in turn, ignited economic growth in the 2000s. Going forward, favourable demographics and trade integration should remain strong tailwinds. However, should India's reform momentum continue to disappoint, the country could struggle to generate sufficient savings growth to finance its investment needs, with headline economic growth suffering as a result. With this in mind, we maintain a sanguine, if cautious, long-term growth outlook with a 10-year average real GDP growth rate of 7.0%
  • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Political Outlook

Domestic Politics

  • India-Pakistan Skirmishes Over Kashmir To Intensify, But All-Out War Unlikely
    • We at Fitch Solutions believe that clashes between India and Pakistan could intensify over the coming months due to India's revocation of Kashmir's special status, although the conflict is likely to be contained within Kashmir
  • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW

Long-Term Political Outlook

  • A Second Chance To Reform The Economy
    • The National Democratic Alliance's absolute majority in the Lower House bodes well for India's economic and political landscape over the coming decade. Continued reform momentum bodes well for further improvement in India's business environment, and we expect this to put strong tailwinds behind growth. The main challenges will continue to be tackling obstructionism from regional governments and traditional interest groups, and ensuring that future economic growth consolidates a politically moderate middle class

Operational Risk

  • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK

Economic Openness

  • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
  • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI

Utilities Network

  • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
  • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
  • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS

Global Macro Outlook

  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

Index Tables

  • TABLE: INDIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Back to Top
전화 문의
F A Q