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DelveInsight's "Chronic Hepatitis B - Market Insight, Epidemiology, and Market Forecast - 2032" report delivers an in-depth understanding of the Chronic Hepatitis B, historical and forecasted epidemiology as well as the Chronic Hepatitis B market trends in the United States, EU4 (Germany, France Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan.
The Chronic Hepatitis B market report provides current treatment practices, emerging drugs, market share of individual therapies, and current and forecasted 7MM Chronic Hepatitis B market size from 2019 to 2032. The report also covers current Chronic Hepatitis B treatment practices/algorithms and unmet medical needs to curate the best opportunities and assess the market's underlying potential.
Study Period: 2019-2032
Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening and one of the most common liver infections caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV), which attacks and injures the liver. Hepatitis B is a "silent epidemic" because most people do not exhibit symptoms when newly or chronically infected. As a result, they have the potential to unintentionally infect others and prolong the slow spread of hepatitis B. If an individual suffers from a Hepatitis B virus infection that lasts more than 6 months, the infection becomes chronic.
Chronic Hepatitis B increases the risk of developing liver failure, liver cancer, or cirrhosis. The risk of developing a Chronic hepatitis B infection is also directly related to the age at which one first becomes exposed to the hepatitis B virus. Males are more prone to develop Chronic hepatitis B.
Since it is impossible to distinguish between hepatitis B and other viral hepatitis based on clinical findings, laboratory confirmation of the diagnosis is crucial. The diagnosis of Chronic Hepatitis B is based on results from tests assessing as anti-HBc IgG, HBeAg, HBsAg quantitative, ALT, AST, AFP, and others. For chronic cases, a liver biopsy may be needed.
The initial evaluation should include a focused clinical history, physical examination, assessment of liver disease activity and severity, and markers of HBV infection. Sometimes an anti-HBc IgM or anti-HBc IgG blood test is to clarify if a person has a new "acute" or "chronic" infection. A positive/reactive anti-HBc IgG test usually indicates a chronic infection.
The patient's journey begins with a referral to a hepatologist/gastroenterologist. However, the current approach to diagnosing these patients is similar to WHO guidelines, based on an assessment of laboratory parameters. WHO recommends that all adults have access to and be offered HBsAg testing with linkage to prevention, care, and treatment services as needed.
In addition, WHO recommends that all infants receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth, preferably within 24 h, followed by two or three doses of the hepatitis B vaccine at least 4 weeks apart to complete the vaccination series. No booster vaccinations are required for those who have completed the three-dose vaccination schedule.
The American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) guidelines focus on screening, counseling, prevention, specialized virological/serological tests, and monitoring untreated patients. Screening is recommended in all persons born in countries with an HBsAg seroprevalence of 2%.
Further details related to country-based variations are provided in the report.
Based on real-world-prescription pattern analysis, patients suffering from Chronic Hepatitis B receive treatment with certain drugs such as pegylated interferon, interferon alpha, entecavir (ETV), VIREAD (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate), and VEMLIDY (tenofovir alafenamide), and other antiviral drugs (lamivudine, telbivudine, and adefovir dipivoxil).
In 2016, the WHO planned to eliminate Chronic Hepatitis B by 2030 due to its public health threat. With the development of antiviral therapies in the past decade, the treatment goal for chronic hepatitis B has been elevated beyond viral suppression (i.e., sustained undetectable HBV DNA levels) and seroconversion/loss of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg). The US Chronic Hepatitis B Market over the next few years is expected to substantially change and experience growth, as the use of interferon followed by TDF will dominate it. We have also anticipated the launch of an emerging product in the US market. VEMLIDY is expected to capture share mainly from its predecessor VIREAD and is expected to peak by 2025 in the US before the generics are expected to enter from 2025.
Notably, most infected individuals had a fairly low chance of a cure with the currently available antiviral drugs. However, novel therapies aimed at functional cures are under active development. Emerging drugs and therapies may play a vital role in suppressing HBV DNA and RNA, producing a meaningful decline in HBsAg levels and restoring HBV-specific immune responses. Developing combination strategies toward a functional cure would dramatically reduce the disease burden associated with Chronic Hepatitis B infection. Novel drugs and therapies of innovative molecules will ultimately lead to the functional cure of Chronic Hepatitis B in the near future.
As the market is derived using the patient-based model, the Chronic Hepatitis B epidemiology chapter in the report provides historical as well as forecasted epidemiology segmented by Total Prevalent Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B, Total Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B, Gender-specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B, Age-specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B, Type-specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B, and Total Treated Cases of Chronic Hepatitis B in the 7MM covering the United States, EU4 (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom, and Japan from 2019 to 2032.
The drug chapter segment of the Chronic Hepatitis B report encloses a detailed analysis of Chronic Hepatitis B marketed drugs and late-stage (Phase-III and Phase-II) pipeline drugs. It also helps understand the Chronic Hepatitis B clinical trial details, expressive pharmacological action, agreements and collaborations, approval and patent details, advantages and disadvantages of each included drug and the latest news and press releases.
VEMLIDY is an HBV nucleoside analog reverse transcriptase inhibitor. It is approved for treating Chronic Hepatitis B infection in adults and pediatric patients 12 years and older with compensated liver disease.
Recently, VEMLIDY received approval for pediatric patients 12 years and older with Chronic Hepatitis B infection with compensated liver disease in November 2022 in the United States. However, the drug was first approved in the United States and Japan, followed by approvals in the EU (2017) for adult patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.
VEMLIDY is more stable than VIREAD in plasma and delivers the active metabolite to hepatocytes more efficiently, allowing a lower dose with similar antiviral activity and less systemic exposure.
Within the HBV space, the growth of VEMLIDY's sales is due to higher sales volume in certain international locations. Also, VEMLIDY's sales growth contrasts with the decline of sales of other leading drugs, such as VIREAD and BARACLUDE, in the hepatitis B treatment market. Besides VEMLIDY's expected patent expiry in 2025 for the United States market, the drug might face competition from therapies such as GSK's bepirovirsen, Janssen Research & Development's JNJ-73763989, and others.
Note: Detailed current therapies assessment will be provided in the full report of Chronic Hepatitis B.
Bepirovirsen (GSK3228836) is an investigational antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) designed to specifically recognize the RNA that the hepatitis B virus uses to replicate itself in the infected liver cells (hepatocytes) and make the viral antigens (proteins) that facilitate chronicity of the disease by helping avoid clearance by the immune system. The assets were in-licensed by GSK from Ionis Pharmaceuticals in August 2019.
The drug potentially could be a next therapy competitor. The company is running trials as monotherapy and in combination. This drug is being evaluated in Phase III and two Phase II clinical trials for patients with active Chronic Hepatitis B. Recently, it completed a Phase II B-Clear study. The results demonstrated promising results suggesting the drug can suppress both the surface antigen and the virus of hepatitis B, leading to the possibility of a functional cure. These encouraging data support further investigation of bepirovirsen, both as monotherapy and combination, as a potentially transformative new treatment option for patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.
The drug is expected to launch by 2026 for a monotherapy regimen. Likewise, even the key opinion Leaders (KOLs) were bullish when the data was presented, stating that "Reduction in hepatitis B surface antigen and HBV DNA to below the lower limit of quantification has the potential to be clinically meaningful and lead to a functional cure. This could help people living with Chronic Hepatitis B and healthcare providers manage the long-term consequences of Chronic Hepatitis B, including the social burden and the risk of developing life-threatening liver complications."
Note: Detailed emerging therapies assessment will be provided in the final report.
The existing Chronic Hepatitis B treatment is mainly dominated by antiviral drugs such as entecavir, VEMLIDY, VIREAD, telbivudine, adefovir dipivoxil, and lamivudine.
Lamivudine was the first NA to be given the go-ahead by US FDA for treating Chronic hepatitis B. The drug was given adult approval in 1998, while pediatric approval for children aged 2-17 was given in 2001. But since 1995, this drug has been used and licensed for treating HIV infection. With few side effects, it can be used successfully in various patients. However, lamivudine therapy for a prolonged time is linked to significant rates of drug resistance, which cause virological relapse and biochemical flare. Lamivudine is suggested as a second-line therapy for managing Hepatitis B.
Adefovir, the second NA licensed for treating Chronic Hepatitis B, is furthermore efficacious in both Chronic Hepatitis B with HBeAg positivity and HBeAg negativity. To treat Chronic Hepatitis B, adefovir dipivoxil was granted a license in the US in 2002 under the name HEPSERA. The high risk of nephrotoxicity at high dosages of this candidate, which was also initially developed as an antiviral medication for HIV infection, led to its abandonment. This candidate received European Commission approval in 2003, and GlaxoSmithKline markets the drug in Japan. In 2008, Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate was approved for adults with Chronic Hepatitis B infection. Although tenofovir is similar in structure to adefovir, it has lower nephrotoxicity than adefovir. Thus, a higher dose is used for treatment.
In addition, the once-daily oral NA reverse transcriptase inhibitor VEMLIDY (tenofovir alafenamide) inhibits reverse transcriptase, a key enzyme in Chronic Hepatitis B infection and HIV infection. VEMLIDY is approved for treating Chronic Hepatitis B in people with compensated liver disease in the US.
Moving onto Interferon, IFN-a and its pegylated form have been used for over 30 years to treat Chronic Hepatitis B with the advantages of finite treatment duration and sustained virologic response; however, the efficacy is limited, and side effects are common. Standard PEG-IFN monotherapy is administered once weekly as an SC injection for 48 weeks, with the advantages of finite treatment duration and sustained virologic response. In addition, treatment by PEG-IFN has been suggested to be associated with a lower incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma than NAs treatment in Chronic Hepatitis B infection. IFN-a treatment can induce an antiviral state in hepatocytes by regulating gene expression and protein translation, which exert non-cytolytic antiviral effects in several stages of the Hepatitis B virus life cycle.
Moreover, the upcoming treatment landscape is poised to see further expansion after the emergence of new classes such as HBsAg/Antisense Oligonucleotide, Programmed Death-Ligand 1 Inhibitor, siRNA, and others.
Chronic Hepatitis B treatment in the US is entering a new era with changing dynamics. To this date, several drugs have been approved by the US FDA to treat Chronic Hepatitis B: interferon-alpha and pegylated interferon-alpha, nucleoside analogs (NA), and nucleotide analog prodrugs. Oral antiviral medications include VIREAD (tenofovir disoproxil), VEMLIDY (tenofovir alafenamide), BARACLUDE (entecavir), TYZEKA or SEBIVO (telbivudine), HEPSERA (adefovir dipivoxil), and lamivudine (Epivir-HBV, Zeffix, or Heptodin). The aforementioned therapies help fight the virus and slow its ability to damage the liver.
It is worth mentioning that the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) presently recommends tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, entecavir, and, more recently, tenofovir alafenamide as the preferred first-line oral antiviral treatments for Chronic Hepatitis B. According to the European Association for the Study of the Liver's (EASL) recommendations, entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, and tenofovir alafenamide are favored regimens in addition to the AASLD as one of the preferred first-line therapies to treat Chronic Hepatitis B.
As per the WHO's latest updates on hepatitis B, Chronic Hepatitis B infection can be treated with either pegylated interferon or oral antiviral agents. These treatments are expected to slow the progression of cirrhosis, reduce the incidence of liver cancer and improve long-term survival. Only a proportion (estimates vary from 10% to 40% depending on setting and eligibility criteria) of people with Chronic Hepatitis B infection will require treatment. And this might be one reason for the low treatment observed across the secondary findings.
The current market has been segmented into different commonly used drugs based on the prevailing treatment pattern across the 7MM, presenting minor variations in the overall prescription pattern. Interferons (pegylated interferon and interferon alpha), entecavir, VEMLIDY, VIREAD, and other antiviral drugs (telbivudine, adefovir dipivoxil, and lamivudine) are the major drugs that have been covered in the forecast model.
The expected launch of upcoming therapies and greater integration of early patient screening, medication in secondary care and other clinical settings, research on best methods for implementation, and an upsurge in awareness will eventually facilitate the development of effective treatment options. However, there are a few roadblocks regarding the timely diagnosis and treatment of these patients, for instance, entry of generics due to the expiration of the patent protection and increasing healthcare expenses because the current treatment is lifelong. These factors often become a hindrance when adopting newer therapies.
Key players such as GlaxoSmithKline (bepirovirsen; GSK3528869A), Beijing Continent Pharmaceutical (hydronidone), Ascletis (ASC22), Vir Biotechnology (VIR-2218), Brii Biosciences (BRII-835 [VIR-2218]; BRII-179), Janssen Research & Development (JNJ-73763989), and several others are evaluating their lead candidates in different stages of clinical development, respectively. They aim to investigate their products for the treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B.
However, to ascertain the success rate of these medications and their effectiveness in causing a long-lasting functional cure, larger, longer, and well-designed clinical studies are required. Given the intricacy of Chronic Hepatitis B, the future of Hepatitis B virus treatments is probably in the combination of novel drugs with various modalities, particularly if the eradication of cccDNA is the ultimate objective.
This section focuses on the uptake rate of potential drugs expected to launch in 2019-2032. For example, for bepirovirsen, the company is running trials in different combinations such as bepirovirsen + peginterferon a2a, monotherapy, and GSK3528869A ± bepirovirsen; and it expect the drug uptake to be medium with a probability-adjusted peak share of 6.4%, years to the peak is expected to be 5 years from the year of launch for monotherapy.
The report provides insights into different therapeutic candidates in Phase III, Phase II, and Phase I stage. It also analyzes key players involved in developing targeted therapeutics.
The report covers information on collaborations, acquisitions and mergers, licensing, and patent details for Chronic Hepatitis B emerging therapies.
To keep up with current market trends, we take KOLs and SMEs' opinions working in the domain through primary research to fill the data gaps and validate our secondary research. Industry Experts contacted for insights on Chronic Hepatitis B evolving treatment landscape, patient reliance on conventional therapies, patient's therapy switching acceptability, and drug uptake along with challenges related to accessibility, include Medical/scientific writers, Medical Oncologists and Professors, Pediatric Gastroenterologist of Rady Children's Hospital, Hepatitis B Foundation, and Others.
DelveInsight's analysts connected with 50+ KOLs to gather insights; however, interviews were conducted with 15+ KOLs in the 7MM. Their opinion helps understand and validate current and emerging therapies and treatment patterns or Chronic Hepatitis B market trends. This will support the clients in potential upcoming novel treatments by identifying the overall scenario of the market and the unmet needs.
We perform Qualitative and market Intelligence analysis using various approaches, such as SWOT analysis and Conjoint Analysis. In the SWOT analysis, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in terms of disease diagnosis, patient awareness, patient burden, competitive landscape, cost-effectiveness, and geographical accessibility of therapies are provided. These pointers are based on the Analyst's discretion and assessment of the patient burden, cost analysis, and existing and evolving treatment landscape.
Conjoint Analysis analyzes multiple approved and emerging therapies based on relevant attributes such as safety, efficacy, frequency of administration, route of administration, and order of entry. Scoring is given based on these parameters to analyze the effectiveness of therapy.
In efficacy, the trial's primary and secondary outcome measures are evaluated; for instance, in Chronic Hepatitis B trials, one of the most important primary outcome measures is the HBsAg loss confirmed on two occasions at least 6 months apart without the requirement for anti-HBs seroconversion plus undetectable Hepatitis B virus DNA.
Both EMA and the FDA believe the endpoint in Phase II clinical trials should be tailored to the drug in question, and the benefit should outweigh the risk, allowing subsequent drug development. Given that HBsAg loss is the preferred primary endpoint for Phase III clinical trials. Thus, Phase II trials should look for an early signal of finite treatment efficacy. A decrease in HBsAg level to <100 IU/mL was proposed as a clinically meaningful endpoint for Phase II trials, but HBsAg decline must still be sufficiently validated and scientifically justified.
Further, the therapies' safety is evaluated wherein the acceptability, tolerability, and adverse events are majorly observed. It sets a clear understanding of the side effects posed by the drug in the trials. In addition, the scoring is also based on the route of administration, order of entry and designation, probability of success, and the addressable patient pool for each therapy. According to these parameters, the final weightage score and the ranking of the emerging therapies are decided.
The risk of hepatitis B is low in the UK, and children and adults in high-risk groups are offered the vaccine. All babies in the UK born on or after August 1, 2017, are given three doses of hepatitis B-containing vaccine as part of the NHS routine vaccination schedule. In November 2022, CMS recently released the "National Fee Schedule for Medicare Part B Vaccine Administration" covering the hepatitis B vaccine. Under Section 1861(s) (10) of the Social Security Act (the Act), Part B covers both the vaccine and its administration for Hepatitis B virus (if a doctor of medicine or osteopathy orders it and is available to Medicare patients who are at high or intermediate risk of contracting hepatitis B). In 2022, CMS finalized a payment rate of USD 30 for administering the Hepatitis B virus vaccine.
In September 2018, the independent Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (Germany) considered that no added benefit is seen in VEMLIDY compared to VIREAD in treatment-naive adults with Chronic Hepatitis B. In March 2020, Haute Autorite de sante (France) considered that the clinical benefit of VIREAD is substantial in the indication extension to treat Chronic Hepatitis B in pediatric patients aged 2 to <12 years with compensated liver disease.
The committee considers that VIREAD (tenofovir), in the same way as BARACLUDE and PEGASYS, provides a minor clinical added value (CAV IV) to treat Chronic Hepatitis B in pediatric patients aged 2 to <12 years with compensated liver disease. The committee issues an unfavorable opinion for inclusion in the hospital and the retail formulary lists of reimbursed proprietary medicinal products approved for use in the indication extension and at the MA dosages to treat Chronic Hepatitis B in pediatric patients aged 2 to <12, with compensated liver disease.
The report further provides detailed insights on the country-wise accessibility and reimbursement scenarios, cost-effectiveness scenario of approved therapies, programs making accessibility easier and out-of-pocket costs more affordable, insights on patients insured under federal or state-government prescription drug programs, etc.