Westwood's World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast shows global expenditure of $731bn over 2018-2022, a $10bn uplift on the September edition.
As 2019 begins, the oil and gas industry finds itself at a crossroads. Short-term oil prices have been hard to predict - leaving operators with difficult decisions on project sanctioning. Despite the uncertainty, investment is going ahead, as highlighted by the OFE sector - which is expected to continue growing from a low of $119bn in 2017, to $142bn in 2019. Based on current sentiments, this investment is expected to continue into the 2020's; with the FPS sector being a particular bright-spot as operators sanction projects in established areas (e.g. Brazil's pre-salt basin), as well as new frontiers such as Guyana and the nascent FLNG industry, all of which will contribute to 2022 equipment spend being 8% higher than 2018.
- Global expenditure of $731bn over 2018-2022, a $10bn uplift on the September edition.
- As also detailed in Westwood's Q4 World Floating Production Market Forecast, almost $72bn is now expected to be spent on the construction of Floating Production System (including LNG FPSOs) over the forecast - 24% of offshore oilfield equipment expenditure.
- Floating Production expenditure will be dominanted by Africa, Latin America and North America, which will account for a combined 76% of total spend.
- Latin American will be dominated by large FPSOs installations for Petrobras, whose recent management plan indicates that 18 units will be installed between 2018 and 2023, with additional multi-billion FPSOs also likely to be ordered over the forecast period.
- Conversely, the majority of expenditure in Africa and North America will be from FLNG liquefaction vessels.
- 547 fixed platforms are expected to be installed over 2018-2022, with associated expenditure of $83bn, highting the continued importance of fixed platforms to the offshore market.
- Activity in Canada is also trending upwards, and is expected to continue, following the sanctioning of the country's first LNG export terminal and the Aspen oil sands project.
- Offshore rig construction continues to weigh on the outlook, however, with a -11% CAGR for the sector over the forecast.
The improved oil prices seen since the beginning of 2017 have helped a number of FPS projects move forward after a severe decline in FPS orders during the downturn. This continued for much of 2018, with key units in frontier areas such as the Karish & Tanin FPSO in Israel and the Etinde JV FLNG in Cameroon ordered. Both of these projects are gas-focused, but oil focused developments such as the Penguins Redevelopment in the UK also saw a sanction decision in 2018 - highlighting an overall more positive attitude in the industry. This will also have a positive impact on other offshore sectors, with high-capex wells required to be drilled for many of the projects that have moved forward in 2018.
This positivity was challenged, however, by the continuing price fluctuations which have led to a decline in oil prices in the last three months, resulting in an extension of the OPEC cuts into 2019. This continuing uncertainty has impacted many projects, particularly high-Capex units with long-lead times such as Bonga SW and Zabazaba in Nigeria and the Buzios 5 FPSO in Brazil, which have all been delayed into at least 2019. Though FID delays cannot be viewed positively, it continues a trend in recent years where the backlog of projects that are at the FID stage grows - providing large upside to later years in the forecast depending on the oil price.
Overall, the oilfield equipment market remains below the highs of 2013-2014 but has continued to recover. Had oil prices of above $80/bbl remained across the year, we would likely have seen higher levels of expenditure and ordering, however these priojects have simply been deferred. As a result, 2019 and beyond look reasonably strong, with a series of project sanctioning decisions expected to lead to strong improvements in both the onshore and offshore oilfield equipment sectors.
The World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast offers unique insight into over 60 different equipment types across upstream and midstream and is an essential product for business planners and those looking to make informed investment decisions. Drawing from Westwood's SECTORS product and a wide-range of other internal databases (including land rigs, pipelines, helicopters and upstream infrastructure), the World Oilfield Equipment Market Forecast also takes account of the latest macro-economic trends through daily updated databases and explicit commodity price, global inflation and supply chain pressure inputs.