EU 27의 레벨4 자율주행 트럭 시장 잠재력 : 장거리 운송 - 허브에서 허브로

Future TAAM Growth Potential of 1,167btkm with 206K Long-haul Driverless Trucks Operational on the European Ten-Ts by 2040

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operations could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but "by when?" and "starting where?" remain key questions.

In this study, the objective is to derive the total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption in the addressable market (SAAM). To achieve this, Frost & Sullivan has developed a detailed model built bottom-up and consisting of an overlay of the 1154 NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, NUTS) regions and the 9 Ten-Ts (Trans European Transport Network) as the base upon which multiple autonomous factors are applied. Then each of these corridors were applied an autonomous score, based on which they were segregated into three different phases of implementation (Phase 1, 2023-2028; Phase 2, 2029-2034; Phase 3, 2035-2040). Then, the TAAM and SAAM derived (by phase) to understand the total market potential of L4 autonomous trucks in EU over the next two decades.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, ~30,600 kms of road length could be autonomous ready; this covers a total addressable autonomous freight market (TAAM) of ~1,167 billion ton-km and nearly 206k driverless long-haul trucks could be operational on European roads.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Truck Market
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Levels of Vehicle Automation
• Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation
• Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
• Research Scope
• Autonomous Technology Segmentation
• The L4 Autonomous Industry in Europe, 2023
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Growth Metrics

L4 Autonomous Market Potential in EU 27, 2023-2040: Forecast Assumptions

• Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)
• Trans-European Transport Network (Ten-T)
• L4 Autonomous Trucks: Forecast Logic

Overview of the Ten-T Corridor

• The Atlantic Corridor
• The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor
• The Mediterranean Corridor
• The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor
• The North Sea- Baltic Corridor
• The Orient-East Med Corridor
• The Rhine-Danube Corridor
• The Rhine-Alpine Corridor
• The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor
• NUTS-3 Ten-T Overlay

Factors Influencing Autonomous Readiness

• Freight Intensity
• Economic Activity
• Safety
• Weather
• Truck OEM Base

Autonomous Score by Corridor

• Autonomous Score: The Atlantic Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Mediterranean Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Baltic Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Orient-East Med Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Danube Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Alpine Corridor
• Autonomous Score: The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor

Autonomous Readiness: Corridor Segregation by Phase

• Ten-T Corridors: Top Autonomous Scores
• Phase 1: 2023-2028
• Phase 2: 2029-2034
• Phase 3: 2035-2040
• Summary of Corridor Segregation by Phase

Forecast: TAAM, SAAM & Units in operation

• Total Autonomous Addressable Market (TAAM)
• Share of Autonomous Adoption in Addressable Market (SAAM)
• Level 4 Autonomous Long Trucks: Unit-in-Operation Forecast

Conclusion

• Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Fleet Owner Partnership Pilots
• Growth Opportunity 2: Autonomous Freight
• Growth Opportunity 3: Application and Operation Expansion

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer