트럼프 2.0이 가져올 세계 거시경제 리스크와 기회(2025-2028년)

Near-Term Shocks Amid US Policy Moves; Protracted Trade Wars Will Shave Off 1.5% of Global GDP Growth in 2028

Global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States. This Frost & Sullivan macroeconomic thought leadership lays down potential US policy scenarios (including tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy) to establish forecasts for 2025 and 2028 for the global economy and the economies of the United States, China, Mexico, and the euro area.

In the baseline, Frost & Sullivan expects the impact on global GDP to remain muted between 2025 and 2028 mainly due to buoyant growth in key Asian emerging markets. In the pessimistic scenario, protracted trade wars could shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028. At the national level, in 2028, the United States' real GDP growth could slow to 2.0% in the baseline scenario and a meager 0.5% in the pessimistic scenario. US trade and immigration regulations might exacerbate recessionary conditions in the Canadian and Mexican economies in 2025. For instance, the Mexican economy is forecast to face a 0.4% contraction in 2025 in the baseline and a 0.5% contraction in the pessimistic case.

The analysis includes long-term implications of the second Trump administration on the global economy and on the automotive, semiconductor, and oil and gas industries. Decision-makers and executives can leverage this thought leadership to make informed business and expansion decisions in the near to medium term in an era of elevated geopolitical tensions and persistent trade wars.

Table of Contents

Growth Opportunities: Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives of Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028: Drivers and Restraints
• Economic Metrics
• Abbreviations

Ecosystem

• Executive Orders-Immigration-Focused
• Executive Orders-Energy and Climate-Focused
• Executive Orders-Corporate Tax-Focused Measures

Growth Generator

• Trump 2.0-Potential Policy Vision Scenarios
• Trump 2.0 Policy Likelihood and Risk Impact Mapping
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Global
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-United States
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-China
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Mexico
• Key Macroeconomic Impact-Euro Area
• Trump 2.0 Long-Term Implications

Industry Impact Analysis

• Automotive
• Oil and Gas
• Semiconductors

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Automotive
• Growth Opportunity 2: Energy (Oil and Gas, Green Energy, and Nuclear Energy)
• Growth Opportunity 3: High-Tech Industries (AI and Semiconductors)

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer