트럼프 2.0 정책의 전략 분석과 세계 자동차 산업에 대한 잠재적 영향(2025년)

Cost Pressures Expected in the Medium Term as Potential Disruptions to Established Supply Networks Prompt Automotive OEMs to Recalibrate Sourcing and Manufacturing Strategies

US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports of passenger vehicles, light trucks, and certain automotive parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components, among them) on March 26, 2025. He also announced a more comprehensive set of "reciprocal tariffs," starting at 10% on almost all goods from most countries.

Subsequently, although the core 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts were retained, President Trump temporarily suspended several additional retaliatory tariffs and delayed tariff implementation on United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant automakers and goods. This was done mainly to avoid cumulative tariff burdens and assuage US automakers about the economic and supply chain fallout of these measures.

Government policies, including the termination of EV incentives, the pause on charging infrastructure funding, and the rollback of EV mandates, are projected to slow the growth of EVs in the United States over the next 5 years. US EV manufacturers will find the going increasingly challenging as the reliance on imported lithium-ion batteries and rare earth elements, most of which come from China and other Asian suppliers, will mean higher costs.

As uncertainty continues to swirl, questions loom about how the highly intertwined, hyper-globalized automotive industry will be affected. What will the future hold for both domestic and foreign automakers, manufacturing output, component suppliers, supply chains, and consumers?

This inflationary effect, coupled with the dial back on EV incentives, may artificially extend ICE dominance in the short term but will weaken their global competitiveness over the long term. Overall, as automakers divert capital toward tariff mitigation and supply chain restructuring, rather than R&D, innovation in transformative technologies, including electrification, will lose out.

Consumers have yet to feel the impact of tariff increases on auto parts in terms of higher prices. This is due in part to competitive pressures and strategic decisions taken by automakers. However, this scenario is poised to change as competitive pressures diminish and companies seek to maintain profitability.

In drawing up roadmaps for the future, automakers are poised to reassess their auto parts sourcing strategies and manufacturing footprint. Many are turning to regionalized production and supply chains in a bid to minimize tariff exposure and maintain cost competitiveness in the long term.

Scope of Analysis

• In 2025, the global trade and economic growth momentum is forecast to be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States.
• Following 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024, the global economy will likely maintain 3.2% to 3.3% annual growth momentum through to 2028, with emerging markets (EMs) retaining their leaderboard positions in terms of economic growth.
• Our baseline scenario considers President Trump's 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside proportional retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
• Our conservative scenario assumes between 25% and 35% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, 60%+ tariffs on Chinese imports, 10% to 20% blanket tariffs on all imports, and 200%+ tariffs on car imports from Mexico. Approximately 50% to 60% tariffs on key US exports and 10% to 25% tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and the EU are assumed as part of retaliatory moves.
• Between 2025 and 2028, within the base case, the impact on GDP will remain muted with key Asian EMs buoying global demand and economic growth. However, in the conservative scenario, adverse and protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028, push global inflation beyond 6.0%, and induce a multiquarter recession in economies such as the United States, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea.

Research Scope

Content Present in Points

• Companies to Action
• Best Practices
• Frost Radar
• Growth Opportunities
• Growth Generator
• Transformation
• Ecosystem

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative
• Strategic Imperatives

Growth Environment

• Key Takeaways
• Global Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities Emerging from Trump 2.0, 2025-2028
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Tariffs on the Automotive Industry
• Dependence of Key Automakers' US Sales on Imports
• Tariff Impact on Vehicle MSRP-Analysis of Ford F-150 Model
• Impact of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium-Analysis of Toyota Camry
• Reaction of Key OEMs to US Tariffs

Overview of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Macroeconomic Impact

• Executive Orders Issued by US Presidents in the First 100 Days
• List of Key Executive Orders Issued by Donald Trump
• Global Growth to Slow from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 Under the Baseline Tariff Scenario
• Tariff Wars to Further Diversify and Decentralize Supply Chain Strategies
• Global Growth to Slow to 2.8%, Avoiding a Recession in 2025; Weaker China to Weigh on APAC Growth

Analysis of Policies Impacting the Automotive Sector

• Executive Orders with Possible Implications for the Automotive Sector
• Policies Specific to Vehicle Imports
• Impact of Trump 2.0 Policies on the US EV Market

The Impact of US Tariffs on Mexico's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Mexico to the United States
• Light Vehicle Exports into the United States from Mexico
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Mexico
• Key Transmission and Assembly Plants in Mexico
• Tariffs on Mexico and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Canada's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Canada to the United States
• Canada's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Canada
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Canada
• Tariffs on Canada and Impact on the Automotive Sector-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on China's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from China to the United States
• China's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on China
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in China
• Key OEMs' China Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on China and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Germany's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Germany to the United States
• Germany's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Germany
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Germany
• Key OEMs' Germany Impact Analysis
• Tariffs on Germany and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on South Korea's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from South Korea to the United States
• South Korea's Automotive Production Landscape
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in South Korea
• OEM Models Dependent on South Korea
• Tariffs on South Korea and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

The Impact of US Tariffs on Japan's Automotive Industry

• Passenger Vehicle and Component Imports from Japan to the United States
• Key Automotive Components Manufactured in Japan
• Japan's Automotive Production Landscape
• OEM Models Dependent on Japan
• Tariffs on Japan and Impact on the Automotive Industry-Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Recalibrate the Supply Chain
• Growth Opportunity 2: Reassess the Powertrain Strategy for the United States
• Growth Opportunity 3: Focus on Innovation to Save Costs

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer