전기자동차 성장 둔화가 자동차 산업에 미치는 영향 : 세계(2025년)

Automakers Realign Strategy due to EV Investment Cuts and a Shift Toward Hybrid and ICE Powertrains

This study presents a comprehensive overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, with a particular emphasis on developments between 2020 and 2024. It thoroughly examines the deceleration in BEV sales growth, highlighting the growing disparity between production volumes and actual vehicle deliveries.

The report contrasts automaker performance during the early high-growth phase from 2020 to 2022 with the subsequent stagnation observed between 2022 and 2024, offering insights into how the market momentum shifted. Additionally, it examines the cancellation and suspension of several high-profile battery production projects, underscoring the weakening investment sentiment.

The analysis covers regional BEV market trends across key markets, including Europe, North America, and China, while exploring the broader implications of postponed product launches, revisions to zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, and regulatory uncertainties. Through detailed case studies of automakers, the report identifies strategic reversals, paused expansion plans, and revised roadmaps aimed at mitigating market risks.

Finally, the study outlines emerging recovery signals and concludes with a forward-looking strategic interpretation of shifting industry dynamics, leveraging Porter's Five Forces framework for a structured outlook.

Scope of Analysis

• This study provides an overview of the global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market slowdown, focusing on the period from 2024 to 2031.
• It analyzes the deceleration in sales growth, the widening gap between production and actual vehicle sales, and contrasts automaker performance over the past few years with current conditions.
• The report further investigates the cancellation and suspension of major battery production facilities; regional EV market trends in Europe, North America, and China; and the cascading effects of delayed product launches and revisions in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates.
• Through automaker case studies, the study highlights strategic reversals and revised roadmaps that automakers have adopted in response to market headwinds.
• The study also discusses recovery trends and concludes with an interpretation of the evolving industry dynamics using Porter's Five Forces framework.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Competitive Intensity

• Why:
  • The EV market is experiencing a saturation of models across similar price bands, particularly from emerging players and legacy automakers rushing to establish a presence, which is intensifying competition amid slowing demand.
  • The slowing consumer uptake in mature markets has led to excess inventory, widening the gap between production and actual sales, and intensifying pressure to differentiate amid increasing commoditization.
• Frost Perspective:
  • From 2025 to 2027, the competitive pressure is expected to be most acute in the mid-size EV segment, where oversupply will coincide with subsidy reductions and wavering consumer confidence.
  • Between 2026 and 2030, regional policies such as revised ZEV mandates and tariff-based protections (e.g., in the United States and European Union [EU]) will shape localized competitive battlegrounds and potentially trigger trade-driven segmentation of EV markets.

Transformative Megatrends

• Why:
  • Government decarbonization policies, net-zero targets, and ESG compliance are compelling OEMs to expand their focus beyond vehicles and toward integrated value chains, from green battery sourcing to end-of-life vehicle recycling.
  • Electrification is no longer a standalone trend. Instead, it is embedded within the convergence of software-defined vehicles, AI-driven personalization, and mobility-as-a-service platforms.
• Frost Perspective:
  • From 2025 to 2028, automakers are expected to face mounting pressure to align their product strategies with national clean energy agendas and smart city mobility frameworks, particularly in the EU and parts of Asia.
  • OEMs that integrate broader megatrends into their strategic planning-such as AI-led vehicles-will gain long-term advantages in manufacturing to AI-led vehicle personalization, as well as traditional vehicle manufacturing by 2035.

Geopolitical Chaos

• Why:
  • The growing dependence on China for battery raw materials and EV components has triggered strategic decoupling efforts in the United States, the EU, and Japan, affecting production planning and cost structures for global automakers.
  • Tariff hikes (2025 U.S. tariff increase on Chinese EVs and parts) and retaliatory measures are redefining export-import dynamics and pushing OEMs toward regionalized manufacturing models.
• Frost Perspective:
  • Between 2025 and 2027, automakers will need to redesign their global sourcing strategies to minimize tariff exposure and ensure compliance with emerging local content requirements in the United States and EU.
  • From 2027 to 2030, a wave of policy-driven investment (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act [IRA] in the United States, the Critical Raw Materials Act in the EU) will accelerate the localization of battery manufacturing, but may also further fragment global structures.

Key Competitors

• Global
  • Tesla, Inc.
  • BYD Company Limited
  • Volkswagen Group
  • Hyundai Motor Group
  • Stellantis N.V.
• North America
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.
  • Lucid Motors
  • Chevrolet
  • Cadillac
  • Ford Motor Company
  • GMC
  • Fisker Inc.
  • Ram Trucks
  • Canoo Inc.
  • Jeep
• Europe
  • Renault Group
  • Peugeot
  • Opel Automobile GmbH
  • MINI
  • Volvo Group
  • Skoda
  • Dacia
  • Cupra
  • Citroen
  • Smart Automobile
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG
  • Volvo Car Corporation
• China
  • GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd
  • SAIC Motor Corporation Limited
  • China FAW Group Corporation
  • Chery Automobile Co., Ltd
  • Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
  • NIO Inc.
  • Xpeng Inc.
  • Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.
  • Seres Group Co., Ltd.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Vehicle Segmentation

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Vehicle Industry

Ecosystem

• Key Competitors

Growth Generator

• Impact Drivers
• Impact Restraints
• Key Takeaways

Global Trends in BEV Sales, Production, and Product Launches

• Global BEV Market Growth
• Global EV Production vs Sales Growth Comparison
• Top 10 OEM Performance, 2022-2024
• Legacy OEM Model Launches and Country Penetration
• Battery Manufacturing Announcements Vs Current Status

EV Market Performance: Europe

• EV Momentum Overview
• Timeline of EV Subsidy Reductions
• Changes in ZEV Mandates
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

EV Market Performance: North America

• EV Momentum Overview
• Timeline of EV Subsidy Reductions
• Changes in ZEV Mandates
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

EV Market Performance: China

• EV Momentum Overview
• Top 10 BEV Automaker Performance, 2022-2024
• Withdrawal of EV Incentives, 2023-2025
• Delays in Product Launches
• Key Takeaways

Automakers' Strategy and Investment Realignment in EV Plans

• Global Automakers Reduce/Cancel EV Investments
• OEMs Developing Interest in Hybrid Vehicle Development
• Automakers's Reactive Strategies Toward the EV Slowdown
• Case Study: Honda's Reactive Shift Amid Global EV Slowdown

Trends Driving Recovery from the EV Market Slowdown

• EV Recovery Trends Across the Technology Adoption Curve
• Trend 1: Affordable BEVs
• Trend 2: Platform Consolidation by Automakers
• Trend 3: Battery Technology Standardization
• Conclusions: Porter's Five Forces Framework

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Launch Affordable EVs for the Mass Market

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Action Items & Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer