소프트웨어 정의 트럭 시장 : 북미 및 유럽(2024-2040년)

Software-defined Trucks are Experiencing Transformational Growth due to Electrification and Connectivity

Software-defined trucks are vehicles designed with hardware-software layers that decouple the capabilities of the vehicle, thus allowing for updates to vehicle features, fleet management, and cloud-based analytics, as well as over-the-air software updates from one or several domains. Rather than being composed of fixed hardware mechanisms with little or no room for upgrades, software-defined trucks have the potential to support ongoing improvements in functionality for vehicles, adaptive mechanisms, and lifecycle flexibility. Software-defined trucks represent a new approach in the engineering of commercial vehicles, where base functionality can be managed and modified through modular software instead of fixed hardware configurations.

Frost & Sullivan presents a feasibility study on the architecture, operations, and economics of transitioning from hardware-defined to software-defined trucks. The report examines implementations of software-defined approaches in the industry, highlights the current software platforms, and explores the enablers for a software-defined ecosystem, such as enhanced crash avoidance features and a shift to centralized computing systems. It also examines challenges associated with software-defined trucks, like cost, security, and privacy concerns. The study further examines continued implications for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and fleets as they cultivate their development life cycles from a hardware-based to a tailored software-defined cycle.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Software-Defined Truck Industry

Transformative Megatrends

Why

• The trucking industry is at a critical juncture, facing increasing demands for operational efficiency along with stricter environmental regulations, changing logistics patterns, and enhanced safety requirements. These factors are driving the industry towards the development of software-defined trucks that are more digitally integrated, better connected, automated, and electric.

Frost Perspective

• Truck manufacturers and fleet operators will start to deploy software-defined fleets, allowing for continuous development of their vehicles, which ensure enhanced predictive maintenance and fleet operations, better routing, and over-the-air (OTA) update capabilities. While many trucking companies are early in the technology adoption phase, the capabilities are emerging.

Disruptive Technologies

Why

• Software advances, onboard computer power, advanced telematics, and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities are rapidly accelerating growth in the software-defined truck market. Next-gen trucks will be more flexible, autonomous, and efficient than ever before.

Frost Perspective

• While there are still significant hurdles with intermediary partners, the role of technology providers and suppliers will also become critical. The development of technologies that consist of software, cloud services, and AI will influence how next-generation trucks are designed and deployed.

Internal Challenges

Why

• New companies focused on software and digital technology are entering the trucking industry, often gaining an advantage due to fewer legacy obstacles in developing and adopting new solutions.

Frost Perspective

• By 2030, most mainstream truck manufacturers will offer a broad variety of software-defined features in their truck models. The offerings will likely include configurable software packages and subscription services, resulting in annuities and deeper relationships.

Key Competitors

• North America
  • Freightliner
  • Western Star
  • Rizon
  • Volvo
  • Mack
  • Kenworth
  • Peterbilt
  • International
  • Hino
  • Isuzu
  • Tesla
• Europe
  • Mercedes Benz
  • Volvo
  • Renault
  • Scania
  • MAN
  • DAF
  • IVECO
  • Fuso
  • Tesla

Growth Drivers

Centralized Compute Architectures

The shift from multiple distributed electronic control units (ECUs) to a centralized computing platform is the foundation of Software-Defined Trucks. With centralization, computing resources can be pooled to process larger data sets more quickly, unlock the benefits of simpler software upgrades and releases, and allow for a broader range of features to be integrated. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are developing scalable, modular architectures to support the long-term viability of vehicle platforms.

Better Crash Avoidance

Truck driving, particularly long-haul truck driving, is an extremely demanding job because of the long and continuous operating hours that cause driver fatigue, oversight, or delayed responses in emergencies. Crash avoidance technologies enable OEMs to achieve higher safety levels, particularly for trucks, as they are the vehicle type involved in a majority of road fatalities.

Regulatory Push

To reduce fatality rates and enhance vehicle safety, European regulators will push initiatives to make some advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions and safety features, such as the automatic emergency braking system (AEBS) and lane-departure warning (LDW), mandatory. Policy guidelines for the adoption of advanced ADAS functions will guide market participants in introducing features in future truck platforms.

Sensor Suite Development

Developments in vision enhancement and sensor suite technologies will make ADAS more reliable than previous generations.

Growth Restraints

• Cost vs. Benefit
• Cost of Ownership
• Uncertain Regulatory Framework
• Bundled Functions

Table of Contents

Growth Environment: Transformation in Software-Defined Trucks

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Software-Defined Truck Industry

Ecosystem in Software-Defined Trucks

• Scope of Analysis
• Segmentation
• Key Competitors

Growth Generator in Software-Defined Trucks

• Growth Metrics
• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Value Factor Forecast Considerations
• Value Factor: Software-Defined Trucks
• Foundation Layers of Software-Defined Trucks
• Core Elements of Software-Defined Trucks
• Manufacturing Approach: Traditional Trucks vs Software-Defined Trucks
• Software Development Approaches by OEMs
• Strategic Impact Areas in Software-Defined Trucks

E/E Architecture and Component Developments

• Evolution of E/E Architecture in Software-Defined Trucks
• Comprehensive Functional Modules: Software-Defined Trucks
• Technology Adoption Phases in Software-Defined Trucks
• Powertrain-Driven Evolution Trends in Software-Defined Trucks
• Overview of X-By-Wire Technologies in Software-Defined Trucks
• Application Suitability and Adoption of Software-Defined Trucks
• Influencing Factors of Software-Defined Truck Use Cases
• Impact Analysis of Software-Defined Truck Domains
• Potential Revenue Models for Software-Defined Trucks
• Impact Areas for Fleet Owner: Software-Defined Trucks

Overview of the Current Software-Defined Truck Landscape

• Comprehensive Analysis: Flexis Mobility
• Comprehensive Analysis: Ree Automotive
• Comprehensive Analysis: Tesla Semi
• Comparative Analysis of Existing Software-Defined Truck OEMs

OEM Software-Defined Strategy

• Daimler: Software-Defined Strategy
• Volvo: Software-Defined Strategy
• Traton: Software-Defined Strategy
• Paccar: Software-Defined Strategy
• Hyundai: Software-Defined Strategy

Cybersecurity Framework and Regulations

• Cybersecurity Threat Areas in Software-Defined Trucks
• Key Factors Impacting the Software-Defined Truck Cybersecurity Landscape
• Types of Cybersecurity Components in Software-Defined Trucks
• Regulations Impacting Cybersecurity for Software-Defined Trucks

Growth Opportunity Universe in Software-Defined Trucks

• Growth Opportunity 1: Technology Advancements
• Growth Opportunity 2: Software Ecosystem
• Growth Opportunity 3: Regulatory Readiness

Appendix & Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer