관세 후 세계의 메가트렌드

Visionary Perspective of the Changing Geopolitical Situations

The unprecedented US tariff measures introduced in 2025 have triggered a global trade conflict, resulting in sharp contractions of trade volumes, extensive supply chain disruptions, and a profound reconfiguration of international business practices. With US average tariff rates surging to their highest levels in nearly a century, governments and businesses globally have made quick strategic decisions to utilize the changing ecosystem to its best potential. Major trading partners, such as China, the EU, India, and Asian industrial hubs, have faced retaliatory tariff cycles, compelling firms to diversify production through decentralized, diverse manufacturing models and new regional trade blocs that mitigate costs and risks.

The "Post-Tariff World" explores the megatrends and strategic shifts catalyzed by these systemic shocks. Global supply chains have shifted away from efficiency-driven models toward resiliency-focused designs, with a heightened reliance on technological advancements (such as AI, IoT, and blockchain) to enhance operational productivity. Business models have been reinvented, implying tailored financial services that help manage volatility and price pressures. As trade fragmentation deepens, few countries (as opposed to the US) accelerate investments in clean energy and green tariffs, reshaping the sustainability imperative in a world of heightened protectionism. Social evolutions are characterized by consumer ethnocentrism and intensified workforce upskilling, supporting the trend toward domestic sourcing and regionally aligned markets.

This report outlines visionary scenarios ranging from trade wars and fragmentation to the rise of collaborative innovation ecosystems. Ultimately, adapting to the post-tariff world demands a strategic blend of technology integration, sustainability leadership, and agile navigation of dynamic global networks, positioning businesses to survive and thrive amid new structural transformations.

Table of Contents

Agenda

Transformational Growth Emerging from Post-Tariff Trends

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative
• Our Megatrend Universe-Overview
• Our Megatrend Universe-Post-Tariff Trends
• Key Findings

Ecosystem-Post-Tariff Trends

• Evolution of US Tariffs in 2025

Ecosystem-Business Model Transformations in the Post-Tariff World

• Emerging Business Models in the Post-Tariff World
• Use Case Analysis

Ecosystem-Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World

• Environmental Priorities in the Post-Tariff World
• Use Case Analysis

Ecosystem-Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World

• Economic Shifts in the Post-Tariff World
• Use Case Analysis

Ecosystem-Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World

• Technology Advancements in the Post-Tariff World
• Use Case Analysis

Ecosystem-Social Evolutions in the Post-Tariff World

• Social Evolution in the Post-Tariff World
• Use Case Analysis

Ecosystem-Visionary Scenarios of the Post-Tariff World

• Future Scenarios of Tariff Situation
• Scenario 1-Resurgence of Trade Wars
• Scenario 2-New Trade Blocs
• Scenario 3-Strategic Trade Agreements
• Scenario 4-Techno Blocs

Growth Generator-Trend Attractiveness Analysis

• Trend Attractiveness Analysis

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Trend Opportunity Impact and Certainty Analysis
• Trend Opportunity Disruption Index
• Trend Disruption Attractiveness Score
• Trend Opportunity Growth Index
• Growth Attractiveness Score
• BEETS Implications for Post-Tariff Trends

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Digital Sovereignty
• Growth Opportunity 2: Biotech-Powered Pharma Security
• Growth Opportunity 3: Blockchain Based Trade Transparency

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Critical Success Factors for Growth

• Critical Success Factors for Growth
• Conclusion

Appendix

• Our Megatrend Universe

Next Steps

• Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
• Next Steps
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer