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세계의 방위 산업 전망(2020년)

Global Defence Outlook, 2020

리서치사 Frost & Sullivan
발행일 2020년 06월 상품 코드 945602
페이지 정보 영문 123 Pages
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세계의 방위 산업 전망(2020년) Global Defence Outlook, 2020
발행일 : 2020년 06월 페이지 정보 : 영문 123 Pages

세계의 방위 산업 전망에는 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(COVID-19)을 비롯한 실로 다양한 요인이 영향을 미칠 전망입니다. 미국의 대통령 선거, Brexit, '일대일로' 프로젝트를 통한 중국의 경제 확대, 북한의 핵무장과 미사일 실험, 이란과 미국의 긴장, 터키와 시리아의 분쟁, 아프가니스탄의 탈레반과의 정전 합의, 베네수엘라의 정세 불안 등도 세계의 방위 산업 전망에 큰 영향을 미칠 것입니다.

세계의 방위 산업의 전망을 조사했으며, COVID-19의 영향, 세계 경제의 동향, 방위 에어리어별 주요 동향, 영향요인, 관련 기술의 동향, 주요 조달 프로그램, 지역별 지정학적 동향, 위협과 분쟁, 방위비, 오퍼레이션상 요건, 성장 기회·성공 전략 분석 등을 정리하여 전해드립니다.

목차

개요

조사 목적·조사 방법

지정학적 동향

신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(COVID-19)에 의한 위기

  • COVID-19 : 개요
  • 방위 산업의 공급망에 대한 영향
  • 방위 산업에 대한 영향 : 기타
  • 업계의 주요 액션 포인트

세계 경제 동향

오퍼레이션 컨셉의 변화

  • 다양한 위협의 성질·특징의 변화
  • 테러 대책
  • 사이버 전쟁·사이버 보안
  • 하이브리드 전쟁
  • 도시 전쟁
  • 탄도 미사일 능력의 진보
  • 자원을 둘러싼 대립

공역

  • 과거 12개월 - 하이라이트
  • 세대 동향
  • 시장을 촉진하는 주요 프로그램

육상

  • 과거 12개월 - 하이라이트
  • 세대 동향
  • 시장을 촉진하는 주요 프로그램

해역

  • 과거 12개월 - 하이라이트
  • 수상함 : 세대 동향·촉진요인
  • 잠수함 : 세대 동향·촉진요인
  • 기술 동향

지역 분석 : 아프리카

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 산업
  • 전략적 결론

아시아태평양

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 아시아태평양 방위 기술 산업기반(DTIB)
  • 전략적 결론

중앙아시아·남아시아

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 기존 제휴·관계
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 중앙아시아·남아시아의 DTIB
  • 전략적 결론

유럽

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 기존 제휴·관계
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 유럽의 DTIB
  • 전략적 결론

중동

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 중동의 DTIB
  • 전략적 결론

북미

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 북미의 DTIB
  • 전략적 결론

남미

  • 지정학적 동향·문제
  • 분쟁·위협
  • 방위비
  • 오퍼레이션 요건
  • 변화하는 남미의 DTIB
  • 전략적 결론

기술 동향

성장 기회

  • 성장 기회 : M&A
  • 성장 기회 : 자동화·로봇공학
  • 성장을 위한 전략적 필수요건

결론

부록

KSA 20.07.14

Continuing High Global Tensions will Call for a Spike in Military Spending; However, the COVID-19 Induced Economic Recession will Severely Restrict Defence Budgets

The defence outlook for 2020 will be driven primarily by a period of instability and high levels of tension due to various factors, including a global pandemic (Coronavirus 2019 or COVID-19), which will be explored by region in this research. The effects of COVID-19 on the defence industry are still to be fully understood. The impact will predominantly be on the supply chain. There are several major points of interest that could have an impact on geopolitical relations and a cascading effect on the wider defence industry, specifically with regards to supply chains and competition. Such points of interest include the upcoming US presidential election, the ramifications of Brexit, China's economic expansion through the "one belt one road" project, North Korean nuclear armament and missile testing, Iran-US tensions, Turkish-Syrian conflict, the ceasefire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and political instability in Venezuela. Major drivers within the defence industry are the arms race between the United States, Russia, and China, as well as the looming threats that China and Russia are perceived to pose. The tripartite arms race is predominantly central to the development of hypersonic technology, with both Russia and China claiming to have functioning weapons in production. The threat from Russia will continue to be the major driver of the defence spending of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), especially amongst the Eastern European nations. However, the recent NATO conference in London established China as a growing adversary.

This report identifies six key emerging concepts of operations: counterterrorism, cyberwarfare, hybrid warfare, urban warfare, advancing ballistic missile capabilities, and conflicts over resources. These changing operational environments will drive defence requirements and procurement over the year -- examples are counterterrorism operations driving the procurement of mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) and armoured personnel vehicle (APV) vehicle programmes; and advancing ballistic missile capabilities, such as hypersonics, driving air defence requirements. Terrorism is on the rise around the world with the proliferation of non-state actors such as Islamic State (IS) related organisations and other separatist movements. As digitisation increases around the world, states and non-state actors are utilising the technology to spread their influence and presence, as well as wage cyberwarfare, thereby opening up a new front. War is no longer fought only on the battlefield against a known adversary but is increasingly against non-state actors and guerrilla-style tactics. It is waged in conjunction with diplomatic, economic, and technological means. As the global population and population density increases with urbanisation of cities, warfare will see a shift towards urban-centric operations. As resources continue to become sparse, and pressure increases from a growing population, conflicts will likely begin to be triggered over resources -- case in point is the Arctic arms race as the melting of the Arctic ice due to global warming opens up new routes within the Arctic Circle.

This defence outlook breaks down the defence environment into the air, land, and maritime domains. It analyses trends and drivers of these markets, as well as highlights current major programmes and the competitive environment in each domain. It also briefly discusses major technological areas and their respective impact on the defence industry. A total of 27 such areas are covered ranging from cloud computing and neuro-electronics to swarm robotics. Regional outlooks are also provided, detailing opportunities and on-going procurements. Each regional outlook covers the major geopolitical issues of the region, the defence outlook and economic standing of the top five countries in each region, the major procurement programmes, and the defence industry landscape amongst the top 100 defence industries (by revenue).

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical Overview
  • Growing Impact of COVID-19
  • Changing Concepts of Operation
  • Key Takeaways

Research Objectives and Methodology

  • Research Scope
  • Research Objectives and Questions

Geopolitics

  • Major Events in The Last 12 Months
  • General Global Trends
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • General Global Trends (continued)
  • Spheres of Political Influence of the "Major" Powers
  • Spheres of Political Influence of the "Major" Powers (continued)
  • General Global Trends
  • Summary

COVID-19 Crisis

  • COVID-19 Overview
  • Impact to the Defence Industry-Supply Chains
  • Impact to the Defence Industry-Other
  • Key Action Points for the Industry

Global Economy

  • General Overview
  • COVID-19 Impact on the Economy
  • COVID-19 Impact on the Economy (continued)

Changing Concepts of Operation

  • Change in Nature and Characteristics of Various Threats
  • Counterterrorism
  • Cyberwarfare and Cybersecurity
  • Hybrid Warfare
  • Urban Warfare
  • Advancing Ballistic Missile Capabilities
  • Conflicts Over Resources

Air

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Air Domain-Generational Trends
  • Major Programmes Driving the Market

Land

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Combat Vehicle-Generational Trends
  • Major Programmes Driving the Market

Maritime

  • The Last 12 Months-Highlights
  • Surface Vessel-Generational Trends and Drivers
  • Submarine-Generational Trends and Drivers
  • Technology Trends

Regional Analysis-Africa

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Industry
  • Strategic Conclusions

Asia-Pacific

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Asia-Pacific Defence Technology Industrial Base (DTIB)
  • Strategic Conclusions

Central & South Asia

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Existing Alliances and Relationships
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Central & South Asia DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Europe

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Existing Alliances and Relationships
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the European DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Middle East

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the Middle East DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

North America

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the North America DTIB*
  • Strategic Conclusions

South America

  • Geopolitics Trends and Issues
  • Conflicts and Threats
  • Defence Spending
  • Operational Requirements
  • Changing Shape of the South America DTIB
  • Strategic Conclusions

Technology

  • Technology Overview
  • Technology Overview (continued)
  • Technology Overview (continued)

Growth Opportunities

  • Growth Opportunity 1-Mergers & Acquisitions
  • Growth Opportunity 2-Automation & Robotics
  • Strategic Imperatives for Growth

The Last Word

  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • Abbreviations
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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