항공 및 해운 산업의 탈탄소화(2024년)

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

While the automotive sector experiences a strong growth in demand for electric vehicles, the aviation and maritime sectors have been slow to decarbonize. To incentivize emission reductions, both sectors have set bold net-zero targets. However, according to the IEA, they remain far off track.

Aviation and maritime represent two of the most difficult to abate sectors due to their demand for cost-competitive and energy-dense fuels. Due to this requirement, it is likely that both sectors will need to engage with a combination of energy transition technologies to achieve emissions reductions.

This report assesses the suitability of electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as energy transition technologies that hold decarbonization potential for both sectors. This report also includes a snapshot of emissions disclosures for both sectors' biggest companies.

For commercial aviation, weight concerns and energy density limitations will restrict electrification to short range or hybrid solutions. Increasing production and cost competitiveness of energy-dense alternative fuels such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen will be key to decarbonizing longer-range flights. The sector is also starting to explore direct air carbon capture to offset its overall emissions.

The maritime sector is well placed to capitalize on all four of the energy transition technologies identified in this report. Biofuels as well as CCUS units fitted to ship exhausts can offer immediate decarbonization. In the long term, ships can be redesigned to increase compatibility with hydrogen (or hydrogen derivatives) and electric propulsion systems. However, the costly nature of these technologies will require substantial policy incentives to drive adoption.

Key Highlights

• Although not included in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, recent years have seen organizations such as UN bodies and the International Maritime Organization set bold emission reduction targets for the aviation and shipping sectors.
• The IEA has revealed that the pandemic caused commercial aviation emissions to drop from 1,000Mt CO2 in 2019 to 600Mt in 2020. An increase in flights towards the end of the year saw emissions increase to 720Mt CO2 in 2021. A wider rebound is expected although emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels throughout 2022. Commercial aviation remains the highest source of individual emissions and this form of transport is experiencing the fastest growth in its emissions.
• Likewise, the maritime sector also remains off track for achieving its climate targets, despite the pandemic driving a drop in emissions. Emissions from shipping are also expected to be boosted in 2024 due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea causing the diversion of ships and the extension of journeys.
• Electrifying aircraft and ships would help to increase efficiency, eliminate tailpipe emissions and create opportunities for using renewable energy. However, these two sectors require high density energy sources. The relatively low energy density of batteries will restrict the electrification of both sectors to short journeys for now, unless significant increases in efficiency can be achieved.
• Biomass-based alternative fuels offer a way of achieving emission reduction while having to make minimal changes to existing aircraft and vessels, with many biofuels such as renewable diesel and SAFs also having the capability to be blended with conventional fuels for gradual emission reduction.

Scope

• Aviation and maritime's current carbon emissions and net-zero goals.
• An overview of four technologies that will be key to decarbonizing both sectors, which include electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS).
• Net-Zero targets and scope 1 and 2 emissions for the largest airlines and shipping companies
• SAF blending targets for countries and airlines
• An assessment of energy transition technologies' suitability for different use cases in aviation and maritime.
• Market forecasts for hydrogen, CCS, renewable fuels.
• A summary of challenges that will hamper the adoption of these technologies by both industries.
• Case studies from companies that are leading both sectors' decarbonization.

Reasons to Buy

• Identify the market trends of energy transition technologies within aviation and maritime.
• Develop market insight into current rates of technology adoption in aviation and maritime and the factors that will shape both sectors' decarbonization.
• Identify the companies most active within electrification, alternative fuels, hydrogen and CCUS technologies in the aviation and maritime industries.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Aviation and maritime carbon emissions
• Aviation and maritime's contribution to climate change
• Aviation and maritime's progress towards net-zero
• Introduction to energy transition technologies
• Four key energy transition technologies for aviation and maritime
• Technologies by decarbonization potential, stage, and suitability for aviation and maritime
• Advantages and disadvantages of energy transition technologies
• Macroeconomic challenges that will pose a barrier to decarbonization
• Aviation and maritime net-zero targets and emissions
• Aviation net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Maritime net-zero targets and emissions disclosure
• Electrifying aviation and maritime
• Electrification presents decarbonization potential for short journeys
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuels in aviation and maritime
• Alternative fuel production under a net-zero scenario
• National and company SAF targets
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• Hydrogen in aviation and maritime
• Global hydrogen production and hydrogen production for transport sector
• Case studies from aviation and maritime
• CCUS in aviation and maritime
• Global carbon capture capacity, 2018 - 2030
• Case studies from aviation and maritime