수동 변속기 시장 기회, 성장 촉진 요인, 산업 동향 분석, 예측(2025-2034년)

The Global Manual Transmission Market was valued at USD 22.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2025 to 2034. This growth is driven by the resurgence of global motor vehicle production, fueled by rising consumer demand and ongoing advancements in automotive manufacturing. Manual transmissions continue to be a popular choice among buyers due to their affordability, simplicity, and versatility across various vehicle types. This is especially true in emerging markets where cost-effectiveness remains a key priority for consumers.

When examining the market by vehicle type, it includes both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. In 2024, the passenger car segment generated USD 15 billion in revenue. Manual transmissions are particularly favored in budget-friendly and entry-level passenger vehicles, offering significant cost savings in terms of both production and maintenance. Additionally, these gearboxes pair well with compact, fuel-efficient engines, making them an appealing option for cost-conscious buyers. Their durability and reliability further strengthen their position in markets where economic factors play a crucial role in purchasing decisions.

The manual transmission market is also segmented by distribution channel into OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and aftermarket. In 2024, the OEM segment held a dominant 71% share, highlighting the importance of designing manual systems tailored to regional consumer preferences. In developing markets, automakers prioritize affordable manual transmissions to cater to budget-conscious buyers. At the same time, they offer premium manual options to appeal to high-performance markets. Partnerships with Tier 1 suppliers ensure that manual transmissions continue to evolve, improving both their efficiency and durability, helping them maintain a competitive edge in the ever-changing automotive industry.

The manual transmission market in China accounted for 46% of the global market share in 2024. Despite a general decline in demand for manual systems, niche segments like performance and sports vehicles continue to sustain interest. Enthusiasts who enjoy the control and engagement offered by manual gearboxes contribute to their ongoing presence in specialized vehicle categories. To meet this demand, automakers are reintroducing manual transmission options, ensuring that these systems remain relevant, even as the broader market shifts toward automatic transmissions.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology & Scope

• 1.1 Research design
  • 1.1.1 Research approach
  • 1.1.2 Data collection methods
• 1.2 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.2.1 Base year calculation
  • 1.2.2 Key trends for market estimates
• 1.3 Forecast model
• 1.4 Primary research & validation
  • 1.4.1 Primary sources
  • 1.4.2 Data mining sources
• 1.5 Market definitions

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry 360⁰ synopsis, 2021 - 2034

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
• 3.2 Supplier landscape
  • 3.2.1 Raw material supplier
  • 3.2.2 Component supplier
  • 3.2.3 Manufacturer
  • 3.2.4 Service provider
  • 3.2.5 Distributor
  • 3.2.6 End-user
• 3.3 Profit margin analysis
• 3.4 Pricing analysis
• 3.5 Cost breakdown analysis
• 3.6 Technology & innovation landscape
• 3.7 Key news & initiatives
• 3.8 Regulatory landscape
• 3.9 Impact forces
  • 3.9.1 Growth drivers
    • 3.9.1.1 Rising demand for fuel-efficient transmission systems
    • 3.9.1.2 Cost advantage over automatic transmissions
    • 3.9.1.3 Greater adoption in developing regions with budget vehicles
    • 3.9.1.4 Consumer preference for enhanced vehicle performance and control
  • 3.9.2 Industry pitfalls & challenges
    • 3.9.2.1 Increasing popularity of automatic and CVT systems
    • 3.9.2.2 More stringent emission and fuel efficiency regulations
• 3.10 Growth potential analysis
• 3.11 Porter’s analysis
• 3.12 PESTEL analysis

Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis
• 4.3 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.4 Strategic outlook matrix

Chapter 5 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Vehicle, 2021 - 2034 ($Mn, Units)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Passenger cars
  • 5.2.1 Hatchback
  • 5.2.2 Sedan
  • 5.2.3 SUV
  • 5.2.4 Others
• 5.3 Commercial vehicle
  • 5.3.1 Light duty
  • 5.3.2 Medium duty
  • 5.3.3 Heavy duty

Chapter 6 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Transmission, 2021 - 2034 ($Mn, Units)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 5-speed
• 6.3 6-speed
• 6.4 Others

Chapter 7 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Propulsion, 2021 - 2034 ($Mn, Units)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Gasoline
• 7.3 Diesel
• 7.4 Hybrid
• 7.5 CNG
• 7.6 LPG

Chapter 8 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Distribution Channel, 2021 - 2034 ($Mn, Units)

• 8.1 Key trends
• 8.2 OEM
• 8.3 Aftermarket

Chapter 9 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Region, 2021 - 2034 ($Mn, Units)

• 9.1 Key trends
• 9.2 North America
  • 9.2.1 U.S.
  • 9.2.2 Canada
• 9.3 Europe
  • 9.3.1 UK
  • 9.3.2 Germany
  • 9.3.3 France
  • 9.3.4 Italy
  • 9.3.5 Spain
  • 9.3.6 Nordics
• 9.4 Asia Pacific
  • 9.4.1 China
  • 9.4.2 India
  • 9.4.3 Japan
  • 9.4.4 South Korea
  • 9.4.5 Australia
  • 9.4.6 Southeast Asia
• 9.5 Latin America
  • 9.5.1 Brazil
  • 9.5.2 Argentina
  • 9.5.3 Mexico
• 9.6 MEA
  • 9.6.1 UAE
  • 9.6.2 Saudi Arabia
  • 9.6.3 South Africa

Chapter 10 Company Profiles

• 10.1 Aisin
• 10.2 Allison
• 10.3 AVL
• 10.4 BorgWarner
• 10.5 CNH Industrial
• 10.6 Continental
• 10.7 Coperion
• 10.8 Dana
• 10.9 Divgi TorqTransfer Systems
• 10.10 Eaton
• 10.11 GKN Automotive
• 10.12 Hyundai Transys
• 10.13 Jatco
• 10.14 Magna
• 10.15 Mahindra Powertrain
• 10.16 Ricardo PLC
• 10.17 Schaeffler
• 10.18 Tremec
• 10.19 WABCO
• 10.20 ZF