상업 우주 발사 시장 기회, 성장 촉진 요인, 산업 동향 분석, 예측(2025-2034년)

The Global Commercial Space Launch Market was valued at USD 8.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.6% to reach USD 31.9 billion by 2034. This explosive growth is fueled by rapid advancements in space technologies, increasing affordability of launch services, and rising demand for connectivity, Earth observation, and scientific research. The global space economy is undergoing a fundamental shift as commercial players become more active and influential, transforming what was once a government-dominated sector into a competitive, innovation-driven industry. Miniaturization of satellites and reduced manufacturing costs have made it easier for private and institutional customers to access space.

With growing interest in low Earth orbit satellite constellations, weather monitoring, real-time imaging, and next-generation communications, the commercial space launch sector has evolved into a key pillar of the broader aerospace ecosystem. As the space economy diversifies beyond traditional exploration, opportunities in data services, inter-satellite links, and space-based infrastructure continue to open new frontiers. Countries around the world are investing heavily in launch infrastructure, regulatory reform, and research and development, making the commercial space launch market a magnet for both capital and talent.

Demand for small satellite launches has skyrocketed due to the rising feasibility of deploying compact payloads that serve a wide range of functions across communication, Earth imaging, climate tracking, and scientific experimentation. The ability to launch smaller satellites more frequently and affordably is a game-changer for both commercial enterprises and government agencies. This transformation has been accelerated by significant reductions in launch costs and the introduction of cost-effective miniaturization technologies.

As a result, companies now have greater access to orbital platforms, enabling the rapid deployment of innovative satellite services. Increased participation from the private sector in launch operations, combined with supportive government policies and streamlined licensing procedures, is reshaping the global space launch ecosystem. A growing number of dedicated launch sites and regional spaceports are being developed to support the increasing volume and variety of commercial missions. This expansion is drawing in a broader base of institutional and commercial clients, contributing to a sharp increase in launch frequency.

However, geopolitical trade tensions and fluctuating international policies have added complexity to the industry's cost structure. Import tariffs on aerospace components and propulsion systems have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs. To mitigate these risks, companies are moving toward localizing production and sourcing materials domestically. This strategic pivot not only aligns with national space policies but also enhances operational stability by reducing reliance on international suppliers. Domestic sourcing supports better cost control, improves delivery timelines, and ensures greater compliance with security regulations.

In 2024, medium-lift launch vehicles dominated the market with a 56.63% share. These rockets offer the ideal combination of payload capacity and operational efficiency, making them a popular choice for a broad spectrum of launch missions. Their flexibility allows them to accommodate both single-customer payloads and ride-share missions, which is highly attractive to commercial operators and government agencies alike. With capabilities to reach both low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), medium-lift vehicles remain the workhorses of the launch industry.

Low Earth orbit maintained the lead by orbit type, capturing 53.49% of the market in 2024. Its popularity stems from advantages such as low latency, faster data transmission, and reduced deployment costs. These factors are critical for applications like broadband connectivity, surveillance, and environmental monitoring. LEO's proximity to Earth allows for the deployment of dense satellite constellations in a scalable, cost-efficient manner. Companies aiming to deliver low-latency communication services and real-time data solutions are increasingly targeting LEO, making it a strategic hotspot for commercial space activity.

The United States Commercial Space Launch Market is forecasted to reach USD 12.4 billion by 2034, underpinned by strong public-private collaboration. Streamlined regulations, innovation incentives, and investments in infrastructure are driving the U.S. forward as a global space leader. Public funding, partnerships with private firms, and R&D initiatives are fast-tracking breakthroughs in reusable launch systems and modular satellite payloads. Agencies continue to work hand-in-hand with commercial players to advance next-generation launch capabilities.

Key players shaping the global market landscape include SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, Rocket Lab USA, Blue Origin, and Safran S.A. These companies are actively developing reusable launch systems to lower mission costs and increase launch frequency. Strategic collaborations with defense organizations and telecom providers are enabling them to secure long-term contracts. By investing in private launch infrastructure, vertically integrating manufacturing processes, and entering global partnerships, these firms are strengthening supply chain resilience, increasing operational flexibility, and extending their international reach.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology and Scope

• 1.1 Market scope and definitions
• 1.2 Research design
  • 1.2.1 Research approach
  • 1.2.2 Data collection methods
• 1.3 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.3.1 Base year calculation
  • 1.3.2 Key trends for market estimation
• 1.4 Forecast model
• 1.5 Primary research and validation
  • 1.5.1 Primary sources
  • 1.5.2 Data mining sources

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry 360° synopsis

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
• 3.2 Trump administration tariffs
  • 3.2.1 Impact on trade
    • 3.2.1.1 Trade volume disruptions
    • 3.2.1.2 Retaliatory measures
  • 3.2.2 Impact on the industry
    • 3.2.2.1 Supply-side impact (service providers)
      • 3.2.2.1.1 Price volatility in key services
      • 3.2.2.1.2 Supply chain restructuring
      • 3.2.2.1.3 Production cost implications
    • 3.2.2.2 Demand-side impact (pricing)
      • 3.2.2.2.1 Price transmission to end markets
      • 3.2.2.2.2 Market share dynamics
      • 3.2.2.2.3 Consumer response patterns
  • 3.2.3 Key companies impacted
  • 3.2.4 Strategic industry responses
    • 3.2.4.1 Server provider reconfiguration
    • 3.2.4.2 Pricing and service strategies
    • 3.2.4.3 Policy engagement
  • 3.2.5 Outlook and future considerations
• 3.3 Industry impact forces
  • 3.3.1 Growth drivers
    • 3.3.1.1 Growth in small satellite launch demand
    • 3.3.1.2 Rising focus on reusable launch vehicles
    • 3.3.1.3 Emergence of private launch providers and spaceports
    • 3.3.1.4 Increased government-private sector collaborations
    • 3.3.1.5 Expansion of space tourism and suborbital flights
  • 3.3.2 Industry pitfalls and challenges
    • 3.3.2.1 High launch costs and capital intensity
    • 3.3.2.2 Regulatory and safety compliance complexities
• 3.4 Growth potential analysis
• 3.5 Regulatory landscape
• 3.6 Technology landscape
• 3.7 Future market trends
• 3.8 Gap analysis
• 3.9 Porter's analysis
• 3.10 PESTEL analysis

Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis
• 4.3 Competitive analysis of major market players
• 4.4 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.5 Strategy dashboard

Chapter 5 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Payload Type, 2021-2034 (USD Billion)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Satellites
• 5.3 Cargo & logistics
• 5.4 Human spaceflight
• 5.5 Interplanetary missions

Chapter 6 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Launch Vehicle Type, 2021-2034 (USD Billion)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 Small-lift launch vehicles (< 2,000 kg)
• 6.3 Medium-lift launch vehicles (2,000–20,000 kg)
• 6.4 Heavy-lift launch vehicles (> 20,000 kg)

Chapter 7 Market Estimates & Forecast, By Orbit Type, 2021-2034 (USD Billion)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Low earth orbit (LEO)
• 7.3 Geostationary orbit (GEO)
• 7.4 Medium earth orbit (MEO)
• 7.5 Polar & sun-synchronous orbit (SSO)
• 7.6 Deep space

Chapter 8 Market Estimates & Forecast, By End Use, 2021-2034 (USD Billion)

• 8.1 Private satellite operators
• 8.2 Government-commercial partnerships
• 8.3 Space tourism companies
• 8.4 Research & academic institutions
• 8.5 Defense & military

Chapter 9 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Region, 2021 – 2034 (USD Billion)

• 9.1 Key trends
• 9.2 North America
  • 9.2.1 U.S.
  • 9.2.2 Canada
• 9.3 Europe
  • 9.3.1 Germany
  • 9.3.2 UK
  • 9.3.3 France
  • 9.3.4 Spain
  • 9.3.5 Italy
• 9.4 Asia Pacific
  • 9.4.1 China
  • 9.4.2 India
  • 9.4.3 Japan
  • 9.4.4 ANZ
  • 9.4.5 South Korea
• 9.5 Latin America
  • 9.5.1 Brazil
  • 9.5.2 Mexico
• 9.6 Middle East and Africa
  • 9.6.1 UAE
  • 9.6.2 Saudi Arabia
  • 9.6.3 South Africa

Chapter 10 Company Profiles

• 10.1 Agnikul Cosmos
• 10.2 Astra
• 10.3 Blue Origin
• 10.4 Firefly Aerospace
• 10.5 GALACTIC ENERGY
• 10.6 Isar Aerospace SE
• 10.7 ispace
• 10.8 LandSpace
• 10.9 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• 10.10 Northrop Grumman
• 10.11 PLD Space
• 10.12 Relativity Space
• 10.13 Rocket Lab USA
• 10.14 Safran S.A.
• 10.15 SpaceX
• 10.16 United Launch Alliance, LLC.
• 10.17 Skyroot Aerospace