연유 및 무가당 연유 시장 기회, 성장 촉진요인, 산업 동향 분석, 예측(2025-2034년)

The Global Condensed Or Evaporated Milk Market was valued at USD 7.5 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% to reach USD 11.7 billion by 2034. The rising popularity of shelf-stable dairy products, especially in regions with limited refrigeration access, is driving this growth. Consumers increasingly seek long-lasting milk alternatives suitable for cooking and baking, and as substitutes for fresh milk. Demand stems largely from household use and the food service sector, including bakeries, cafes, and dessert outlets.

Additionally, shifting food trends have sparked renewed interest in recipes incorporating condensed milk, especially across Asia-Pacific and Latin America, fueled by the growth of convenience foods and ready-to-eat desserts. Innovations such as new flavors, low-sugar options, and plant-based or lactose-free alternatives are broadening the product's appeal. Enhanced packaging solutions and expanded online retail availability are improving access and convenience, supporting steady market expansion amid competition from fresh and non-dairy milk products. The market remains robust as modern and traditional diets evolve in both developed and emerging regions.

In 2024, sweetened condensed milk accounted for a 35.2% share, valued at USD 2.6 billion. This segment continues to thrive due to focused marketing efforts and product innovation that align with consumer preferences. While unflavored condensed milk retains significant popularity for cooking applications, flavored variants-such as those with chocolate, caramel, or vanilla-are gaining traction, especially among younger consumers seeking indulgent treats.

The canned packaging segment held a 31.5% share in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 4% CAGR, expanding its consumer reach. Although cans remain the dominant packaging choice for evaporated milk due to their durability and ability to maintain product freshness, their heavier weight and higher production costs mean growth is steady rather than rapid. Meanwhile, Tetra Pak cartons using aseptic technology are becoming more popular because they are lightweight, recyclable, and preserve milk without refrigeration, appealing to environmentally conscious consumers.

Europe Condensed or Evaporated Milk Market held a 34.3% share in 2024. Regional consumption patterns and culinary traditions heavily influence market dynamics. The European market maintains steady demand driven by the widespread use of evaporated milk in cooking and processed foods. North America represents a mature market with steady growth, largely fueled by the baking and convenience food sectors. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid expansion, propelled by urbanization, changing eating habits, and increased demand for Western-style desserts and beverages that use these dairy products.

Key players in the Global Condensed or Evaporated Milk Industry include Friesland Campina N.V., Arla Foods, Danone S.A., Nestle S.A., and The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand). To strengthen their position in the condensed or evaporated milk market, companies are focusing on product innovation and expanding flavor varieties to meet diverse consumer tastes. Emphasis on developing low-sugar, plant-based, and lactose-free options addresses growing health and dietary concerns. Firms are investing in sustainable packaging solutions, such as recyclable cartons and lightweight containers, to align with environmental goals and consumer preferences. Strategic expansion of online sales channels improves product accessibility in regions with limited refrigeration. Additionally, partnerships with food service providers and retailers help broaden market reach.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Methodology & Scope

• 1.1 Market scope and definition
• 1.2 Research design
  • 1.2.1 Research approach
  • 1.2.2 Data collection methods
• 1.3 Data mining sources
  • 1.3.1 Global
  • 1.3.2 Regional/Country
• 1.4 Base estimates and calculations
  • 1.4.1 Base year calculation
  • 1.4.2 Key trends for market estimation
• 1.5 Primary research and validation
  • 1.5.1 Primary sources
• 1.6 Forecast model
• 1.7 Research assumptions and limitations

Chapter 2 Executive Summary

• 2.1 Industry 360⁰ synopsis
• 2.2 Key market trends
  • 2.2.1 Regional
  • 2.2.2 Product
  • 2.2.3 End use
• 2.3 TAM Analysis, 2025-2034
• 2.4 CXO perspectives: Strategic imperatives
  • 2.4.1 Executive decision points
  • 2.4.2 Critical success factors
• 2.5 Future outlook and strategic recommendations

Chapter 3 Industry Insights

• 3.1 Industry ecosystem analysis
  • 3.1.1 Supplier landscape
  • 3.1.2 Profit margin
  • 3.1.3 Value addition at each stage
  • 3.1.4 Factor affecting the value chain
  • 3.1.5 Disruptions
• 3.2 Industry impact forces
  • 3.2.1 Growth drivers
  • 3.2.2 Industry pitfalls and challenges
  • 3.2.3 Market opportunities
• 3.3 Growth potential analysis
• 3.4 Regulatory landscape
  • 3.4.1 North America
  • 3.4.2 Europe
  • 3.4.3 Asia Pacific
  • 3.4.4 Latin America
  • 3.4.5 Middle East & Africa
• 3.5 Porter's analysis
• 3.6 PESTEL analysis
  • 3.6.1 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.6.2 Current technological trends
  • 3.6.3 Emerging technologies
• 3.7 Price trends
  • 3.7.1 By region
  • 3.7.2 By product
• 3.8 Future market trends
• 3.9 Technology and innovation landscape
  • 3.9.1 Current technological trends
  • 3.9.2 Emerging technologies
• 3.10 Patent landscape
• 3.11 Trade statistics (HS code) (Note: the trade statistics will be provided for key countries only)
  • 3.11.1 Major importing countries
  • 3.11.2 Major exporting countries
• 3.12 Sustainability and environmental aspects
  • 3.12.1 Sustainable practices
  • 3.12.2 Waste reduction strategies
  • 3.12.3 Energy efficiency in production
  • 3.12.4 Eco-friendly Initiatives

Chapter 4 Competitive Landscape, 2024

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Company market share analysis
  • 4.2.1 By region
    • 4.2.1.1 North America
    • 4.2.1.2 Europe
    • 4.2.1.3 Asia Pacific
    • 4.2.1.4 LATAM
    • 4.2.1.5 MEA
• 4.3 Company matrix analysis
• 4.4 Competitive analysis of major market players
• 4.5 Competitive positioning matrix
• 4.6 Key developments
  • 4.6.1 Mergers & acquisitions
  • 4.6.2 Partnerships & collaborations
  • 4.6.3 New product launches
  • 4.6.4 Expansion plans

Chapter 5 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Product Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 5.1 Key trends
• 5.2 Sweetened condensed milk
• 5.3 Unsweetened condensed milk (Evaporated milk)
• 5.4 Flavored condensed milk
• 5.5 Low-fat & fat-free variants
• 5.6 Organic condensed & evaporated milk
• 5.7 Others

Chapter 6 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Packaging Type, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 6.1 Key trends
• 6.2 Cans
• 6.3 Tetra packs
• 6.4 Bottles
• 6.5 Tubes
• 6.6 Pouches
• 6.7 Others

Chapter 7 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Distribution Channel, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 7.1 Key trends
• 7.2 Supermarkets & Hypermarkets
• 7.3 Convenience stores
• 7.4 Online retail
• 7.5 Specialty stores
• 7.6 Foodservice industry
• 7.7 Others

Chapter 8 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Application, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 8.1 Key trends
• 8.2 Bakery & confectionery
• 8.3 Beverages
  • 8.3.1 Coffee & tea
  • 8.3.2 Smoothies & milkshakes
  • 8.3.3 Other beverages
• 8.4 Desserts & ice cream
• 8.5 Infant food
• 8.6 Sauces & soups
• 8.7 Direct consumption
• 8.8 Others

Chapter 9 Market Estimates and Forecast, By End Use, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 9.1 Key trends
• 9.2 Household/retail consumers
• 9.3 Food service industry
• 9.4 Food processing industry
• 9.5 Others

Chapter 10 Market Estimates and Forecast, By Region, 2021 - 2034 (USD Billion) (000’ Liters)

• 10.1 Key trends
• 10.2 North America
  • 10.2.1 U.S.
  • 10.2.2 Canada
• 10.3 Europe
  • 10.3.1 Germany
  • 10.3.2 UK
  • 10.3.3 France
  • 10.3.4 Spain
  • 10.3.5 Italy
  • 10.3.6 Netherlands
  • 10.3.7 Rest of Europe
• 10.4 Asia Pacific
  • 10.4.1 China
  • 10.4.2 India
  • 10.4.3 Japan
  • 10.4.4 Australia
  • 10.4.5 South Korea
  • 10.4.6 Rest of Asia Pacific
• 10.5 Latin America
  • 10.5.1 Brazil
  • 10.5.2 Mexico
  • 10.5.3 Argentina
  • 10.5.4 Rest of Latin America
• 10.6 Middle East and Africa
  • 10.6.1 Saudi Arabia
  • 10.6.2 South Africa
  • 10.6.3 UAE
  • 10.6.4 Rest of Middle East and Africa

Chapter 11 Company Profiles

• 11.1 Nestle S.A.
• 11.2 The J.M. Smucker Company (Eagle Brand)
• 11.3 Arla Foods amba
• 11.4 FrieslandCampina N.V.
• 11.5 Goya Foods, Inc.
• 11.6 Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.
• 11.7 Borden Dairy Company
• 11.8 Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
• 11.9 Danone S.A.
• 11.10 Amul (Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.)
• 11.11 California Dairies, Inc.
• 11.12 Almarai Company
• 11.13 Saputo Inc.
• 11.14 Alaska Milk Corporation (Royal FrieslandCampina)