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Worldwide NAND Flash Demand and Supply Forecast, 4Q22-4Q23 and 2023-2027: Downcycle Extends

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ksm 23.05.08

This IDC study presents an outlook for the NAND market for 2023-2027. The NAND industry dynamics and the application forecast changes are aggregated, analyzed, and applied to this long-term NAND forecast in terms of units, revenue, and content per system for each application segment."Demand-driven market correction started in 2H22. Inventory soared and market pricing reached below cash cost within a half year. Every player starts to struggle for survival. The next upcycle will start in 2025. But the correction could be longer without consolidation." - says Soo Kyoum Kim, associate vice president, IDC's Semiconductors research program

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Market Forecast

  • NAND Demand Side
    • Equipment Shipment Forecast
    • Content-per-System Forecast
    • Application's NAND Share Forecast
  • NAND Supply Side
    • Wafer Output Forecast
    • Demand and Supply Forecast
    • Density Shipment Forecast
    • NAND Pricing Forecast
    • Interface Mix Forecast

Market Context

  • Drivers and Inhibitors
    • Drivers
      • SSD Market Will Continue to Lead Bit Growth
      • Technology Difficulties Will Make Chip Makers Find Own Optimal Way for Bit Supply
    • Inhibitors
      • System Demand Saturation Will Be a Bottleneck in the Long Term
      • U.S. Technology Ban Will Damage Both the United States and China at the Same Time
  • Significant Market Developments
  • Changes from Prior Forecast

Market Definition

Methodology

Related Research

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