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세계의 EV용 전기 모터 시장(2019-2029년)

Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2019-2029

리서치사 IDTechEx Ltd.
발행일 2019년 04월 상품 코드 408659
페이지 정보 영문 182 Slides
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세계의 EV용 전기 모터 시장(2019-2029년) Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2019-2029
발행일 : 2019년 04월 페이지 정보 : 영문 182 Slides

EV용 모터 시장은 2029년에 1,000억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예측됩니다.

EV용 전기 모터 시장에 대해 조사 분석했으며, 시장 개요, 주요 동향, 기술, 주요 기업 등에 대한 체계적인 정보를 제공합니다.

제1장 주요 요약과 결론

제2장 서론

제3장 전압 동향, 기술의 영향, 48V 마일드 하이브리드의 큰 기회

  • 현재 상황
  • 자동차 파라미터 : 카테고리별
  • "48V는 새로운 12V"
  • 5,000만을 넘어선 48V 마일드 하이브리드

제4장 중량비를 높여

  • 경량 항공기용 전기 모터의 경쟁
  • AVID EVO가 요구하는 10kW/kg : 7,000만 달러의 수주
  • Magnax의 축방향 자속

제5장 자동차용 트랙션 머신 동향

  • 다양한 EV용 전기 모터의 파워
  • 인휠/인트랜스미션 복수 모터의 사례
  • Schaeffler
  • Xtrac EV 트랜스미션
  • 유인 전기 항공기의 사례
  • Mercedes Vito minibus
  • 인휠 모터 vs. 니어휠 모터

제6장 모터 제어 기술

  • 개요
  • 사례
  • 증가가 단순화의 시도로 연결
  • 비용과 통합 문제
  • 미래의 48V 마일드 하이브리드 모터 컨트롤러

제7장 작동중인 다양한 트랙션 모터 기술

  • 48V 마일드 하이브리드 자동차의 전기 모터 종류 분석
  • 전기 버스의 전기 모터 종류 분석
  • 오프로드 산업용 EV
  • 작동중인 전기 항공기
KSM 19.01.30

이 페이지에 게재되어 있는 내용은 최신판과 약간 차이가 있을 수 있으므로 영문목차를 함께 참조하여 주시기 바랍니다. 기타 자세한 사항은 문의 바랍니다.

In 2029, the market for EV motors will surpass $100bn and have many premium pricing opportunities.

What is in every electric vehicle whether land, water and airborne? It is an electric motor with its control. No not a battery: plenty of EVs have a supercapacitor. The new IDTechEx report, "Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2019-2029" explains how, even in cost terms, the battery will become a smaller part of the cost, even commoditised, whereas the other electrics become more of the cost and much more of the added value. Not least, this is because the traction motors become complex motor-generators with up to four per car - six on some trucks, 20 on some aircraft and each with a more complex controller. Little wonder that Nissan has been trying to sell its battery business while boosting motor research and duplicating its motor production into its Chinese facility. The innovation in the new Tesla 3 was the motor not the battery.

IDTechEx forecasts the vehicles 2019-2029 in far more categories than any other analyst - over 50. See where traditional permanent magnet motors and new forms of switched reluctance are gaining share and induction is losing share in electric vehicles land, water and air. Understand how, to avoid magnet price hikes and performance limitations, there are now permanent magnets in motors without rare earths, others use ferrites, reluctance or induction and what advances in induction may reverse their decline. Where are traditional PM machines with axial rather than radial flux gaining share from almost nothing? Who are getting the orders for high power density applications and in which two technologies?

Understanding and benefitting from all this will be a key competitive advantage for users and producers of traction motors. The detailed 167 page report, "Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2019-2029" covering over 50 participants and giving over 20 forecasts 2019-2029 will greatly assist.

The report was researched by globetrotting multi lingual IDTechEx analysts and updating is continuous. It starts with a very comprehensive Executive Summary and Conclusions with many infograms revealing and explaining trends from voltages to operating principles. There are over 30 forecasts of applications by device numbers, value and technologies. Roadmaps show the big developments over the coming decade, land and air. The assessment and predictions of many thought leaders is prominent. Which technologies and suppliers win and why? Where does weight decrease command premium price and who wins in this? What is happening in China?

The Introduction thoroughly explains the dynamics of the electric vehicle business and the key place of China in it. See winners in the impending car shakeout. What does the frenzy of acquisitions of motor innovators focus on? See many examples. Read advice of the motor designers. Chapter 3 concerns voltage trends, technology implications of these and the huge 48V mild hybrid opportunity. Learn why 800V is one destination but "48V is the new 12V". See motors planned for many forthcoming vehicles, in the light of voltage trends, technology roadmaps.

Chapter 4 concerns chasing higher power to weight ratio from 1881 to 2050. Startling new achievements are planned. Why is axial flux landing orders but not in every case? Chapter 5 explains and predicts the trend to multiple traction machines in vehicles. It permits vectored steering and new principles of flying. Paradoxically, it increases range. How? Who? What next? Chapter 6 investigates latest motor control technology, now inseparable from the motor itself. Understand the trend to more control and less motor. Chapter 7 illustrates different traction motor technologies in action starting with a summary of types used in 48V mild hybrid cars, then buses, then off-road vehicles. It ends with aircraft choices, all in summary tables and comment.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose and scope of this report
    • 1.1.1. General
    • 1.1.2. Key market features
    • 1.1.3. Timeline electric land vehicles 2019-2030
    • 1.1.4. Timeline electric aircraft 2019-2030: some indicative events
    • 1.1.5. Traction machine-with-controller value market: new vehicles 2029 % by vehicle application
    • 1.1.6. Where the profit will lie: Traction machine value gross margin 2029 % of total market gross margin earned
  • 1.2. Market dynamics and 2019-2029 share by type and application
  • 1.3. Electric vehicles compared to non-electric vehicles
  • 1.4. Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air
    • 1.4.1. Overview
    • 1.4.2. Patent analysis: switched reluctance motors
    • 1.4.3. Patent analysis: axial flux motors
  • 1.5. Examples of machine technologies in action
    • 1.5.1. Overview
    • 1.5.2. Traction motor opportunities off road, often more profitable, by power kW
  • 1.6. Nine traction machine trends 2019-2029
    • 1.6.1. Multifunction and integration
    • 1.6.2. Proliferation
    • 1.6.3. Product mix
    • 1.6.4. Vertical integration and in-wheel motors
    • 1.6.5. Power acceptance and power delivery increase
    • 1.6.6. Voltage increase
    • 1.6.7. Weight decrease and less metal, more electronics in the motor + controller
    • 1.6.8. Less cooling
    • 1.6.9. Permanent magnets more popular but probably eventually unnecessary
  • 1.7. But it is not that simple!
    • 1.7.1. Time
    • 1.7.2. Company experience and preferences
  • 1.8. Market values and types used by country
    • 1.8.1. China
    • 1.8.2. Europe
    • 1.8.3. USA
    • 1.8.4. Switched reluctance rapidly gains share
  • 1.9. Global shares by technology
    • 1.9.1. Motor technologies: 2017 global EV car market shares
    • 1.9.2. Motor technologies: 2018 global EV market shares
  • 1.10. Machine technology mix by vehicle type
    • 1.10.1. Pure electric cars 2013-2029
    • 1.10.2. Plug-in hybrid cars 2013-2029
    • 1.10.3. Non-plug-in hybrid cars 2013-2029
    • 1.10.4. 48V mild hybrid cars 2013-2029
    • 1.10.5. e-buses 2013-2029
    • 1.10.6. Electric forklifts 2013-2029
    • 1.10.7. Manned multicopters and derivatives 2013-2029
    • 1.10.8. Two wheel scooters 2013-2029
    • 1.10.9. Golf cars 2013-2029
    • 1.10.10. Mobility for disabled 2017-2029
    • 1.10.11. Machine technologies: global share in battery electric lawnmowers 2017-2029
    • 1.10.12. Drones, consumer and prosumer 2013-2029
  • 1.11. Machine market value $bn, kW 2013-2029
    • 1.11.1. Pure electric cars
    • 1.11.2. Plug-in hybrid cars
    • 1.11.3. Non-plug-in hybrid electric cars
    • 1.11.4. 48V mild hybrid cars
    • 1.11.5. Electric buses
    • 1.11.6. Electric forklifts
    • 1.11.7. Consumer and prosumer drones
    • 1.11.8. Toy drones
    • 1.11.9. Manned multicopters and derivatives
    • 1.11.10. Electric scooters
    • 1.11.11. Electric motorbikes
    • 1.11.12. Battery electric lawn mower, golf car, disabled mobility
  • 1.12. Induction motor breakthrough?

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Past, present and future
    • 2.1.1. Overview
    • 2.1.2. Global car, bus and truck making in a race for pure electric
    • 2.1.3. Here comes China: buying brands, routes to market and strongly innovating
    • 2.1.4. Chinese NEV sales breakdown Jan-Aug 2018
    • 2.1.5. Electric bikes in China: the party is over
  • 2.2. Leaders and market drivers by applicational sector
  • 2.3. Powertrain evolution
  • 2.4. Pure electric vehicle viability: small vehicles first
  • 2.5. League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion
  • 2.6. EV manufacturer numbers by sector showing where most are profitable
  • 2.7. Technology choices for traction e-machines
    • 2.7.1. Overview
    • 2.7.2. Traction machine types used to propel electric vehicles land, water, air
    • 2.7.3. Avoiding rare earths: Honda PM machines, other routes
  • 2.8. Acquisitions increase: Tier One suppliers gain SR, 48VMH, direct drives
    • 2.8.1. Nidec-SR Drives etc.,
    • 2.8.2. Federal Mogul-CPT
    • 2.8.3. Borg Warner-Remy, Sevcon
    • 2.8.4. Dana Corporation - TM4
  • 2.9. How to design a traction machine
    • 2.9.1. Advice from Tesla
    • 2.9.2. Some generalities: conductor format, optimisation, integration
    • 2.9.3. Case study: Visedo synchronous reluctance assistant
    • 2.9.4. Case study: Tesla 3 Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor
    • 2.9.5. Case study: Advanced Electric Machines SR devices
    • 2.9.6. New materials in switched reluctance EV motor
  • 2.10. Traction machine needs by powertrain type
    • 2.10.1. Comparison
    • 2.10.2. Motor-generator machine duty cycle, type, function
    • 2.10.3. Motor-generator REM improvements needed, number of manufacturers/ developers

3. VOLTAGE TRENDS, TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS, HUGE 48V MH OPPORTUNITY

  • 3.1. Current situation
  • 3.2. Car parameters by category
  • 3.3. "48V is the new 12V"
  • 3.4. Over 50 million 48V mild hybrids ahead
    • 3.4.1. How to make a 48V mild hybrid in latest form for a car
    • 3.4.2. Evolution from stop-start to 48VMH
    • 3.4.3. Operating modes, design priorities
    • 3.4.4. Technology chosen: every option offered
    • 3.4.5. Key components of 48V mild hybrid system: Audi
    • 3.4.6. Mercedes went straight to integrated starter generator ISG
    • 3.4.7. Delphi ISG gives second generation
    • 3.4.8. Some 48V mild hybrid models promised by year
    • 3.4.9. Gen 1 & 2 roadmap
    • 3.4.10. Gen 3 & 4 roadmap
    • 3.4.11. Manufacturer thrust and demand by region
    • 3.4.12. Will 48V MH motor generators appear in trucks?
    • 3.4.13. IDTechEx technology timeline - 48V and competitive market and system developments

4. CHASING HIGH POWER TO WEIGHT RATIO

  • 4.1. Chasing high power to weight ratio: history
  • 4.2. Siemens, ELAPHE, YASA
    • 4.2.1. AVID EVO claim 10 kW/kg: lands $70 million of orders
    • 4.2.2. Equipmake reconfigured PM motor
    • 4.2.3. Magnax axial flux

5. TREND TO MULTIPLE TRACTION MACHINES IN VEHICLES

  • 5.1. Power and profusion of electric motors in various electric vehicle applications
  • 5.2. Examples of in-wheel and in-transmission multiple motors
  • 5.3. Schaeffler: 48V MH with electric modes, e-axles
  • 5.4. Xtrac EV transmission: dual motors torque vectoring
  • 5.5. Examples of manned electric aircraft with multiple drive motors
  • 5.6. No differential or prop shaft
  • 5.7. Innovative two motor formats: Mercedes Vito minibus
  • 5.8. In wheel motors vs near wheel motors

6. MOTOR CONTROL TECHNOLOGY

  • 6.1. Overview
  • 6.2. Examples
  • 6.3. Proliferation leads to simplification attempts
  • 6.4. Cost and integration issues
  • 6.5. Future 48V mild hybrid motor controllers

7. DIFFERENT TRACTION MOTOR TECHNOLOGIES IN ACTION

  • 7.1. Analysis of electric motor types in 48V mild hybrid cars
  • 7.2. Analysis of electric motor types in electric buses
  • 7.3. Off-road industrial EVs in action
    • 7.3.1. Needs are different from on-road
    • 7.3.2. Asynchronous/ induction in mining vehicles
    • 7.3.3. Analysis of electric motor types in electric forklifts
  • 7.4. Electric aircraft in action
    • 7.4.1. Analysis of electric motor types in electric aircraft
    • 7.4.2. Drone electric motor type vs. price
    • 7.4.3. Coreless motors used

8. ELECTRIC MOTORS FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES DIRECTORY OF 192 COMPANIES

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